Category: Energy
Energy market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine
Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine Following a contraction by about 45% in March, the economy started to adjust in April, judging from high-frequency alternative sources of data. But this adjustment appears to have plateaued in May, as broken supply chains, destroyed infrastructure, displaced pop ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia sent a sizeable delegation of senior ministers to Davos, where it was praised by the World Economic Forum's president for its recent reform agenda. At the meeting, Saudi min ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A £15bn package of fiscal aid to households will ease, if not eliminate, cost of living pressures. It’s still unclear what effect a more generous bills rebate will have on official inflation, but the targeted nature of the new support means any indirect ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands The Dutch economy started 2022 a bit weaker than we expected, with GDP stagnating in Q1. As a result of this and the renewed supply-chain disruptions from the lockdowns in China, we have lowered our GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt this year to 3.1%, but ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guyana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guyana We expect new oil discoveries will continue to drive Guyana's economic expansion and forecast GDP to grow by 48.7% in 2022 following a 19.9% rise in 2021. ExxonMobil, the largest operator in offshore Guyana, made three new oil discoveries this month ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates The UAE began a 40-day mourning period last week following the death of its president, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan, who was instrumental in the economic transformation of the UAE. His successor, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, has ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom We've become gloomier about UK growth prospects, leading us to cut our forecasts for 2022 and 2023 GDP growth by 0.2ppts each to 3.6% and 1.4%, respectively. While inflation has probably peaked, renewed supply-chain disruptions and a weaker pou ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania Flash estimates indicated Romania's Q1 2022 GDP grew 5.2% q/q, significantly better than expected. However, high-frequency data do not point to a sharp acceleration in GDP growth, with industry advancing only 2.5% q/q and retail sales growing by 0.8%. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland Irish inflation reached heights not seen in decades, as consumer prices rose 7% in April. But despite the resulting squeeze on consumers' spending power and another sharp drop in sentiment, survey data and other evidence point to an economy that is be ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria While Nigeria is one of the few countries that is expected to financially benefit from the war between Russia and Ukraine, it has not come off scot-free from the conflict. Higher fuel prices are pressuring households, prompting the government to redire ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Portugal to 6.9% from 4.8% last month. This reflects the huge Q1 GDP upside surprise. GDP rose 2.6% q/q, while we had pencilled in just a 0.4% gain to the start of the year. This builds on last year's s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia The passthrough effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on Zambia should transmit primarily through the terms-of-trade mechanism, considering the limited direct trade ties between the Southern African nation and the Black Sea countries. The energy price disru ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We continue to see non-oil sector growth of 4.7% this year, after increasing by 3.1% in 2021, propelled by high consumer spending and robust real estate sales. Surging oil prices and increasing oil production are also helping economic growth. But there are ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Geopolitical tensions and supply concerns continue to support to commodity prices, especially energy. However, demand headwinds are gathering pace. High energy prices are taking their toll on economic activity globally. In China, indus ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia
Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia We have maintained our GDP forecasts of a 10.9% contraction in 2022 and a 3.3% decline in 2023. While GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.7% y/y in Q1, this mainly reflects buoyant growth in January-February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having alread ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France The invasion of Ukraine by Russia continues to dominate France's outlook. While the direct impact on the French economy will likely be limited given the modest weight of Russia and Ukraine on France’s exports and imports, the real pain will be felt in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria While the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased international uncertainty, the Nigerian economy remains undeterred. The non-oil economy's strong performance persisted in the first quarter of the year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway Our 2022 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.6%, but a stronger-than-expected impact from the war in Ukraine on household consumption represents the main downside risk to our outlook. Otherwise, growth prospects remain resolute. An incredib ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain Spain's 2022 outlook continues to be impacted by the war in Ukraine. Soaring energy prices are pushing inflation higher, eroding real income, while confidence is dramatically down. Thus, we expect Spanish GDP to grow 4.8% this year (down from our previo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America
Analysis by Region - North America We expect GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1, though the underwhelming performance reflects a slower inventory build and weaker exports. While we believe the economy will prove resilient to rising headwinds from higher inflation and a more aggressive Fed tightening cy ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have maintained our Indonesia 2022-2023 GDP growth forecasts at 5.7% following downgrades in February and March. Domestic prices are rising in line with our expectations, with a partial feed through of higher global energy and food prices. As mobilit ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia We have updated our model of the Saudi economy to reflect the new classification of GDP in line with the General Authority for Statistics (GAStat), which breaks down the economy into oil activities, non-oil activities, government activities and net t ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The minutes from the Fed's March policy meeting underscored that policymakers intend to "move the stance of monetary policy towards a neutral posture expeditiously" in order to tackle hot inflation and assuage fears that it is behind the curve. We look for a 5 ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China China’s GDP growth is forecast ease to 4.9% in 2022 but pick up to 5.4% in 2023. To achieve this gain, we expect meaningful and front-loaded policy support from the government, which has emphasized tax cuts and unemployment benefits and has sped up the a ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States US industry is still expanding briskly but now facing a growing list of shifting headwinds. On the macro scale, the Omicron wave has now been largely contained, but higher inflation has remained, greater uncertainty triggered by Russia's inva ... Read More
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