Category: Energy
Energy market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya As 2024 draws to a close, Kenya can reflect on a year filled with many trials and tribulations. The year began apprehensively as the government faced the June 2024 Eurobond repayment. Fortunately, the government partially addressed this challenge by secu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador We revised our growth forecast up by 0.6ppts to 1.8% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 after a null growth in 2024. Private demand is expected to recover from a 1% contraction in 2024 to 1.8% growth in 2025. This rebound is mainly due to base effects, as market ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We've kept our eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 1.2%. We continue to expect growth will gradually gain pace to 1.5% in 2026, but we acknowledge that the risks are to the downside. Over the coming quarters, we think the eurozone economy will g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria Real GDP growth surprised to the upside in Q3, supported by a sound performance in Nigeria's services economy. Although the November purchasing managers' index reading points to persistent hardship in the country's private sector, economic ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana We expect broad-based improvements in Ghana’s economy over the medium term. Real GDP growth is projected to average 4.8% p.a. over 2024-2026. Meanwhile, inflation is forecast to ease steadily throughout 2025, dipping below 10.0% y/y by Q1 2026. The count ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana We have cut our GDP growth forecasts for Guyana by 2.7ppts to 22.5% in 2025 and by 2.9ppts to 14.2% in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman We nudged our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Oman down by 0.1ppt, to 2.2%, which is an improvement on the 1.5% expansion we expect this year. Growth continues to be driven by non-energy sectors, after a strong pickup of 4.6% in H1, despite a deeply negative co ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the United Arab Emirates to 4.5% from 5.0%. Our downgrade is entirely due to OPEC+ policy. The cartel has delayed a planned supply increase until early next year in reaction to the weak oil deman ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We forecast Turkmenistan's GDP growth will pick up to 4.1% in 2025, an improvement from recent years. Stabilising natural gas prices and stronger-than-expected population growth will be the main growth drivers next year as the economy strengthens from several years of ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We upgraded our 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India We've nudged down our 2025 GDP growth forecast for India to 6.8%, from 7.0% previously. This follows a projected 6.8% expansion for 2024. Our forecast reflects a more sluggish domestic demand outlook. We expect 6.7% growth over FY2025/26, the same as in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.3% next year following a 0.9% expansion this year, as the impact of monetary policy unwinds and strong wage growth alongside lower inflation helps drive the recovery in consumption. We expect inflation will ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany GDP expanded by 0.2% q/q in Q3, according to a flash estimate aided by private and government consumption, but the overall level of output in earlier quarters was lower due to data revisions. We maintain our call of a 0.1% contraction this year and don ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We've lowered our growth forecast for Sweden in 2024 by 0.1ppt to 0.7% and increased it by 0.1ppt to 2.3% in 2025 due to a downside surprise to Q3 GDP. We now project medium-term GDP will be 0.1ppt smaller due to expected policy changes following the U ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Bearish fundamentals continue to drive Brent lower. China's latest stimulus is failing to support prices. Market fears of a conflict escalation in the Middle East have eased and OPEC+ postponed unwinding its December production cut ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati We expect Kiribati's GDP will grow by a modest 0.9% next year, following strong growth of 3% in 2024. The positive growth effects of a 38% rise in public sector wages in 2024 is expected to taper off next year. Kiribati's economic performance con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger The 2,000-km Niger-Benin Oil Export Pipeline is anticipated to transform Niger into a significant regional oil producer. Boasting a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipel ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone Weak economic institutions, persistent cost-of-living crises, and high susceptibility to external shocks hinder sustained economic growth in Sierra Leone. Nevertheless, easing inflation should bolster government spending and private sector activit ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We recalibrated our measurement scopes for Kuwait's oil and non-oil activities to be more aligned with the official data release. As a result, we've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast down to a 1.9% contraction from 0.5% previously. We attribute ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia We've kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Croatia at 3.5% but revised down our 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.8%. Our downgrade reflects the planned large hike in energy prices early next year that will cause real income growth to slow down co ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria During the past quarter, Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune won the presidential election by a landslide. He once again repeated some of his very ambitious economic plans in his address to the nation. Given Algeria’s dependency on the hydrocarbon secto ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana Botswana’s diamond industry has continued to struggle after a poor start to the year: it contracted by 6.5% q/q in Q2, after a sharp decline of 16.6% q/q in Q1 2024. Recent diamond sales and export data have also revealed a concerning downward trend, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've upgraded our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran by 0.1ppt to 3.0%, on stronger-than-expected oil production and exports. Still, this is a marked slowdown from 5.0% growth in FY2023. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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