Category: Energy
Energy market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've maintained our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran at 3.0%. However, we've cut the forecast for FY2025 to 2.3% from 2.5% previously, reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic demand as a result of the newly announced FY2025 budget ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates We downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the UAE to 4.2% from 4.5%, reflecting our revised assumption that the reversal of production cuts will be delayed, likely starting in Q3 2025. The adjustment comes amid an oil price dip, fuelled ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.0%, to reflect another extension by OPEC+ of voluntary oil production cuts. The cartel has announced it will delay unwinding cuts until at least the end of Q1, due to concerns over weak demand. We ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again in Q3, this time falling by 1.4% q/q. There is little reason for cheer in most of the recent data: October, the first month of Q4, showed another drop in the industrial production index, bringing levels to jus ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We've kept our near-term GDP forecast for Sweden largely unchanged and expect growth of 2.4% in 2025. We think growth will pick up due to household real income gains, easing fiscal and monetary policies, and better external demand. But we see increased ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya Oil production recovered markedly over the past two months, following disruptions to production in August and September due to political turmoil. A struggle for influence over the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) led to a political crisis in mid-August and a sharp drop ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India Economic growth momentum in India has slowed after a staggering start to 2024, and we expect activity will continue to expand at a softer pace next year. We forecast GDP will grow by 6.4% in 2025, similar to 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts We maintain our call that oil prices will average US$74 per barrel in Q4 and US72-US$73 pb in 2025. Weak oil demand from China remains the key concern as the latest fiscal stimulus announcement failed to reassure markets. As we expecte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.3% next year, following a 0.9% expansion this year. The impact of tight monetary policy is set to unwind, while strong wage growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. We e ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany We expect overall growth for Germany at 0.6% next year as consumption recovers. But we see downside risks stemming from a more backloaded industry recovery and a weaker labour market. The economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q3 after data revisions. The GDP d ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya As 2024 draws to a close, Kenya can reflect on a year filled with many trials and tribulations. The year began apprehensively as the government faced the June 2024 Eurobond repayment. Fortunately, the government partially addressed this challenge by secu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador We revised our growth forecast up by 0.6ppts to 1.8% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 after a null growth in 2024. Private demand is expected to recover from a 1% contraction in 2024 to 1.8% growth in 2025. This rebound is mainly due to base effects, as market ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We've kept our eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 1.2%. We continue to expect growth will gradually gain pace to 1.5% in 2026, but we acknowledge that the risks are to the downside. Over the coming quarters, we think the eurozone economy will g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria Real GDP growth surprised to the upside in Q3, supported by a sound performance in Nigeria's services economy. Although the November purchasing managers' index reading points to persistent hardship in the country's private sector, economic ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana We expect broad-based improvements in Ghana’s economy over the medium term. Real GDP growth is projected to average 4.8% p.a. over 2024-2026. Meanwhile, inflation is forecast to ease steadily throughout 2025, dipping below 10.0% y/y by Q1 2026. The count ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana We have cut our GDP growth forecasts for Guyana by 2.7ppts to 22.5% in 2025 and by 2.9ppts to 14.2% in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman We nudged our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Oman down by 0.1ppt, to 2.2%, which is an improvement on the 1.5% expansion we expect this year. Growth continues to be driven by non-energy sectors, after a strong pickup of 4.6% in H1, despite a deeply negative co ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We forecast Turkmenistan's GDP growth will pick up to 4.1% in 2025, an improvement from recent years. Stabilising natural gas prices and stronger-than-expected population growth will be the main growth drivers next year as the economy strengthens from several years of ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We upgraded our 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati We expect Kiribati's GDP will grow by a modest 0.9% next year, following strong growth of 3% in 2024. The positive growth effects of a 38% rise in public sector wages in 2024 is expected to taper off next year. Kiribati's economic performance con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger The 2,000-km Niger-Benin Oil Export Pipeline is anticipated to transform Niger into a significant regional oil producer. Boasting a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipel ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone Weak economic institutions, persistent cost-of-living crises, and high susceptibility to external shocks hinder sustained economic growth in Sierra Leone. Nevertheless, easing inflation should bolster government spending and private sector activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia We've kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Croatia at 3.5% but revised down our 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.8%. Our downgrade reflects the planned large hike in energy prices early next year that will cause real income growth to slow down co ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria During the past quarter, Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune won the presidential election by a landslide. He once again repeated some of his very ambitious economic plans in his address to the nation. Given Algeria’s dependency on the hydrocarbon secto ... Read More
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