Category: Petroleum
Petroleum market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
We are cautiously optimistic that Nigeria will enjoy a more favourable macroeconomic climate this year. Real GDP growth is projected to increase marginally to 3.1% this year from an estimated 3.0% in 2024 while remaining relatively flat over the medium term. The non-oil economy will be a growth driv ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've maintained our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran at 3.0%. However, we've cut the forecast for FY2025 to 2.3% from 2.5% previously, reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic demand as a result of the newly announced FY2025 budget ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.0%, to reflect another extension by OPEC+ of voluntary oil production cuts. The cartel has announced it will delay unwinding cuts until at least the end of Q1, due to concerns over weak demand. We ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador We revised our growth forecast up by 0.6ppts to 1.8% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 after a null growth in 2024. Private demand is expected to recover from a 1% contraction in 2024 to 1.8% growth in 2025. This rebound is mainly due to base effects, as market ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana We have cut our GDP growth forecasts for Guyana by 2.7ppts to 22.5% in 2025 and by 2.9ppts to 14.2% in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We upgraded our 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger The 2,000-km Niger-Benin Oil Export Pipeline is anticipated to transform Niger into a significant regional oil producer. Boasting a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipel ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone Weak economic institutions, persistent cost-of-living crises, and high susceptibility to external shocks hinder sustained economic growth in Sierra Leone. Nevertheless, easing inflation should bolster government spending and private sector activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana Botswana’s diamond industry has continued to struggle after a poor start to the year: it contracted by 6.5% q/q in Q2, after a sharp decline of 16.6% q/q in Q1 2024. Recent diamond sales and export data have also revealed a concerning downward trend, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iran
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iran Despite a significant increase in crude oil output in 2023, Iran’s GDP growth is expected to slow in 2024 due to reduced oil exports and fixed investment. Growth is projected to slow in FY2024 to 2.9%, hindered by tighter sanctions affecting oil productio ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kuwait
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kuwait Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, increasing by 0.3%, picking up to 1.9% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - United Arab Emirates
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - United Arab Emirates Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2024, increasing by 4.1%, picking up to 5.8% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Saudi Arabia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Saudi Arabia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, falling by 0.3%, picking up to 9.7% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA - Saudi Arabia
Analysis by Region - MENA - Saudi Arabia We expect the Saudi Arabian economy to grow by 1.1% this year, down from last month's forecast due to the additional cut to oil production. Driven mostly by a 5.4% y/y rise in non-oil activities last year, growth expanded by 3.9% y/y in Q1 2023. Oil activ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei After contracting 1.6% in 2022, Brunei's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 due to higher investment spending, bringing GDP back to its pre-pandemic level. Investment will focus on the expansion of petrochemical plants, r ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria The second leg of Nigeria's general elections took place on March 18, with 28 of the country's 36 states voting for their governor and state representatives. There were reports of violence, voter intimidation, and attacks on polling stations, w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq Despite a decrease in oil output in Q1 2023, we've maintained our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%. This is because Iraq is seeking to expand its oil opportunities through offering production and exploration licenses in H2 2023. So far, it's kept its ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria
Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria Nigeria has regained the title of 'Africa's largest oil producer' thanks to recovering oil production towards the end of last year. Output rose by 7.0% m/m to an average of 1.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in December due to successful efforts to rep ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore Singapore started the year on a strong note as a rebound in household spending lifted the final Q1 GDP, supporting our view of the reopening boosting the domestic recovery. But with another upward revision to our global oil price and inflation forecasts ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia sent a sizeable delegation of senior ministers to Davos, where it was praised by the World Economic Forum's president for its recent reform agenda. At the meeting, Saudi min ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands The Dutch economy started 2022 a bit weaker than we expected, with GDP stagnating in Q1. As a result of this and the renewed supply-chain disruptions from the lockdowns in China, we have lowered our GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt this year to 3.1%, but ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guyana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guyana We expect new oil discoveries will continue to drive Guyana's economic expansion and forecast GDP to grow by 48.7% in 2022 following a 19.9% rise in 2021. ExxonMobil, the largest operator in offshore Guyana, made three new oil discoveries this month ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates The UAE began a 40-day mourning period last week following the death of its president, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan, who was instrumental in the economic transformation of the UAE. His successor, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, has ... Read More
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