Category: Pricing & Markets
Pricing & Markets market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India We've nudged down our 2025 GDP growth forecast for India to 6.8%, from 7.0% previously. This follows a projected 6.8% expansion for 2024. Our forecast reflects a more sluggish domestic demand outlook. We expect 6.7% growth over FY2025/26, the same as in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.3% next year following a 0.9% expansion this year, as the impact of monetary policy unwinds and strong wage growth alongside lower inflation helps drive the recovery in consumption. We expect inflation will ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany GDP expanded by 0.2% q/q in Q3, according to a flash estimate aided by private and government consumption, but the overall level of output in earlier quarters was lower due to data revisions. We maintain our call of a 0.1% contraction this year and don ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We've lowered our growth forecast for Sweden in 2024 by 0.1ppt to 0.7% and increased it by 0.1ppt to 2.3% in 2025 due to a downside surprise to Q3 GDP. We now project medium-term GDP will be 0.1ppt smaller due to expected policy changes following the U ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya Since taking office in 2022, President William Ruto has cultivated a strong partnership with former President Joe Biden. Bilateral relations between the two countries were flourishing during Ruto's four-day visit to the US in May this year. However, ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Bearish fundamentals continue to drive Brent lower. China's latest stimulus is failing to support prices. Market fears of a conflict escalation in the Middle East have eased and OPEC+ postponed unwinding its December production cut ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati We expect Kiribati's GDP will grow by a modest 0.9% next year, following strong growth of 3% in 2024. The positive growth effects of a 38% rise in public sector wages in 2024 is expected to taper off next year. Kiribati's economic performance con ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We've kept our eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 1.2% but raised our 2026 forecast marginally to 1.6%. We still anticipate a gradual pickup in momentum throughout next year as solid growth in real disposable income supports consumption. The ec ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria The IMF recently lowered its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2024, with the impact of severe flooding and insecurity at the heart of its concerns. Conversely, we are satisfied that our real GDP growth forecast of 2.8% for the year remains val ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana Our outlook on the Ghanaian economy is becoming increasingly positive following the completion of the Eurobond debt restructuring and amid sustained IMF support. Although we expect growth to slow in the second half of 2024, we still project the economy t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger The 2,000-km Niger-Benin Oil Export Pipeline is anticipated to transform Niger into a significant regional oil producer. Boasting a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipel ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone Weak economic institutions, persistent cost-of-living crises, and high susceptibility to external shocks hinder sustained economic growth in Sierra Leone. Nevertheless, easing inflation should bolster government spending and private sector activit ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We recalibrated our measurement scopes for Kuwait's oil and non-oil activities to be more aligned with the official data release. As a result, we've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast down to a 1.9% contraction from 0.5% previously. We attribute ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates We maintain our forecast for the UAE of 4.5% growth in its non-oil economy this year. Plus, we expect its overall GDP will rise to 3.7%. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its GDP growth forecasts f ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia We've kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Croatia at 3.5% but revised down our 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.8%. Our downgrade reflects the planned large hike in energy prices early next year that will cause real income growth to slow down co ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've upgraded our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran by 0.1ppt to 3.0%, on stronger-than-expected oil production and exports. Still, this is a marked slowdown from 5.0% growth in FY2023. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia Estonia's economy didn't shrink for the first time in more than two years in Q2, which indicates that the years-long recession has likely ended. The stagnation in Q2 and our forecast of soft growth in Q3 and Q4 will likely result in a mild GDP con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya In the past quarter, conflict risk in Libya has increased markedly. A struggle for influence over the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) precipitated a crisis in mid-August, and the CBL is now split between factions that follow the instructions of the country’s two rival ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again through the first half of 2024. Most of the positive signs cited in our last quarter’s report have either reversed or stalled out: monthly industrial production figures showed steep falls first in May and then ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman We've trimmed our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Oman by 0.1ppt to 1.5% as curbs on oil production continue. We still expect output will be hiked gradually, helping GDP growth to pick up to 2.3% next year. We maintain our 2024 forecast of 2.4% growth in th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica We've nudged up our forecast for Costa Rica's GDP growth this year by 0.2ppts to 3.7% as investment figures surprised to the upside in Q2 2024. However, consumption has slowed down amid lower growth in real incomes and higher unemployment. M ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iran
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iran Despite a significant increase in crude oil output in 2023, Iran’s GDP growth is expected to slow in 2024 due to reduced oil exports and fixed investment. Growth is projected to slow in FY2024 to 2.9%, hindered by tighter sanctions affecting oil productio ... Read More
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