Category: Banking & Financial Services
Banking & Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador We’ve cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for El Salvador by 0.1 ppt to 1.9%. President Bukele's plan to reduce expenditures through layoffs and decreased transfers will weigh on household expenditures and government consumption next year. Althoug ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Ethiopia has made rapid progress on policy reforms over the past three months. Adopting a market-determined FX regime and loosening restrictions on the current account unlocked a four-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on July 29. Authorities accessed a second-tranche di ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar We've kept our GDP growth forecasts for Qatar broadly unchanged at 1.9% for this year and 2.7% for 2025. Our projections reflect the limited improvement in industrial performance so far. But we think non-energy sector growth will remain robust, at 2.4% ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia Preliminary Q3 estimates for Saudi GDP growth come in line with our expectations at 2.8% y/y, up from the fall of 0.3% last quarter. Diversification are bolstering non-oil sector performance, which we see as a key driver for growth against a backdrop ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Polls have shifted in favor of Republicans in recent days. Former President Donald Trump is leading in just enough battleground states to win the Electoral College. Key Senate races where Democrats are defending their seats have tightened, and House Democrats are no lon ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR We pencil in significant downside risks to our current 3% y/y forecast, given external demand has been weaker than expected. Q3 GDP contracted on a sequential, seasonally adjusted basis in line with our expectations, but base effects meant that GDP g ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine We still expect the Ukrainian economy will grow by 3.7% y/y this year and 3.6% next, as the war with Russia is set to last through most of 2025. As conflict intensifies and attacks on energy infrastructure have destroyed about half of generation capaci ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We recalibrated our measurement scopes for Kuwait's oil and non-oil activities to be more aligned with the official data release. As a result, we've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast down to a 1.9% contraction from 0.5% previously. We attribute ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel In early October, Iran's direct attack on Israel spread fears that Israel would respond in kind and target Iran's oil infrastructure, leading to spikes for oil and natural gas prices and a depreciation of the shekel, but Israel's restrained ret ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Romania to 1.3%, due to historical data revisions. Although domestic demand remains solid, the economy's weak supply-side has been unable to keep pace, resulting in a large drag from net trade. With th ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Chile at 2.5% y/y but have lowered our 2025 growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 2.8% y/y, 0.5ppts above the consensus. This comes due to a slightly weaker end-of-2024 outlook which carries over into 2025 figures, but ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho Lesotho’s economic growth disappointed in H1 2024, mainly due to weaknesses in the retail and public administration subsectors. Conversely, the construction subsector showed strong annual growth, boosted by phase two of the Lesotho Highlands Water Proj ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi Despite robust tobacco production, we have cut our 2024 real GDP growth forecast further to 1.7% from 2.2%. A myriad of factors is constraining the rest of the agricultural sector, and high inflation and fuel shortages are curbing private consumption gr ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia We raised our GDP forecast for 2024 by 0.6ppts to 4.1% in 2024 and left 2025 unchanged at 4%. Better-than-expected GDP data outturns led us to revise our forecast for this year. In 2025, a more favourable carryover effect will offset the slightly softer qu ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines We forecast the Philippines' economy will expand by 5.9% this year, below the government's target (6.0%-7.0%). This reflects a slow improvement in domestic demand and a limited boost to exports from the AI boom. ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates We maintain our forecast for the UAE of 4.5% growth in its non-oil economy this year. Plus, we expect its overall GDP will rise to 3.7%. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its GDP growth forecasts f ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia With Prabowo Subianto inaugurated as Indonesia's president on October 20, the country entered a new phase. However, we do not expect a significant shock to our GDP growth forecasts. The baseline remains at 5.1% for this year and 4.9% for 2025. ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand We've maintained our GDP growth forecast for Thailand at 2.5% for 2024 and expect a 2.9% expansion next year. Domestic demand momentum will likely remain lacklustre and due to the uncertain global environment, a boost from external demand is unlikely ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland We forecast Iceland's economy will expand by 2.8% in 2025, accelerating from 0.9% this year. Prospects have improved due to a better demographic outlook. We expect more stubborn inflation, averaging 3.9% next year and 6.0% in 2024, due to its stickine ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia We've kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Croatia at 3.5% but revised down our 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.8%. Our downgrade reflects the planned large hike in energy prices early next year that will cause real income growth to slow down co ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland We maintained our GDP growth forecasts for Switzerland at 1% for this year and 1.5% for 2025, adjusted for revenues from major sporting events. ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia We kept our GDP growth forecasts for Colombia unchanged at 1.9% for this year and 2.5% for 2025. This is because monthly activity in August declined as we expected, after a hefty rebound in July. We forecast GDP will expand by a moderate 0.5% q/q in Q ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Long-term interest rates trended higher over the past several weeks but the increase doesn't pose a significant downside risk to our forecast. Some of the increase is attributed to the bond market betting on former President Donald Trump winning the election, sugges ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan We expect Taiwan's GDP growth to have moderated to 3% y/y in Q3 from 5.1% in Q2 as a high base effect kicked in and export growth slowed from previous highs. But buoyant capital investment from local manufacturers may lend support to growth in the near ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary We kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 1.5%. The rebound in activity over Q3 has disappointed to date as external environment remains challenging and domestic demand recovery has proven underwhelming. While we keep expecting GDP growth to pi ... Read More
Research Assistance
