Category: Banking & Financial Services
Banking & Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Trinidad and Tobago
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Trinidad and Tobago We forecast GDP growth for Trinidad and Tobago of 2.7% for next year and 2.6% for 2026. This reflects greater capital spending by the government and public wage settlements with unions, helping to lift capital formation and consumption. But du ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Macau, China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Macau, China We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Macau by 1.1ppts to a 12.4% expansion and expect growth will moderate further next year. This partly reflects our view of an economic slowdown for mainland China. We forecast Macau's economy will exp ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We've kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal unchanged at 1.9% for both 2025 and 2026. Although growth disappointed slightly in Q3 at 0.2% q/q, we think the overall outlook remains solid. Improving real disposable incomes and the EU's Recover ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands Historical data revisions and a significantly stronger-than-expected demographic outlook led us to raise our short- and medium-term forecasts for the Cayman Islands. We now expect GDP will grow by 1.9% next year before slowing down to 1.6% in 2026. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Haiti
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Haiti We revised our 2024 to 2026 GDP forecasts up for Haiti in light of the arrival of the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS). It arrived in the middle of this year with the aim of improving the dire security situation in the country. We now expect gro ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Albania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Albania We have raised our raised 2024 Albania GDP forecast by 0.7ppts to 3.6% and our 2025 forecast by 0.3ppts to 3.5%. This is driven by a strong construction sector – evidenced by rising confidence and strong annual output growth – and a booming tourism sector ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We've kept our eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 1.2% but raised our 2026 forecast marginally to 1.6%. We still anticipate a gradual pickup in momentum throughout next year as solid growth in real disposable income supports consumption. The ec ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Martinique
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Martinique We forecast 2.3% GDP growth for Martinique in 2024, before it moderates to 1.9% in 2025. The tourism recovery and cruise rebound will propel the economy through the medium term. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Azerbaijan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Azerbaijan We expect GDP growth will moderate to 2.7% next year, from our upgraded forecast of 4.4% for 2024. Oil production will likely remain on its long-term declining trend. Government investment in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and other priority areas such ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Brunei
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Brunei We maintained our near-term GDP growth forecasts for Brunei at 3.2% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, reflecting strong expansions compared to recent years. Oil production rose by 4.0% y/y in Q2, driven by new supply from the Salman offshore oil field. We anticipa ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa The budgetary estimates presented in South Africa's 2024 mini-budget are marginally worse than those in the 2024 Budget. Nonetheless, favourable political changes have eased risk perceptions, which could lower the interest paid on debt. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana Our outlook on the Ghanaian economy is becoming increasingly positive following the completion of the Eurobond debt restructuring and amid sustained IMF support. Although we expect growth to slow in the second half of 2024, we still project the economy t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - East Timor
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - East Timor Given that the Bayu-Undan oil field is close to depletion, headline GDP will likely contract by 5% y/y in 2024, though non-oil GDP should still grow by 3.3%. Assuming that the field runs out by year's end, GDP growth will likely reach 3.9% y/y in 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Tonga
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Tonga We revised our FY2024 – starting 1 July 2024 – GDP forecast for Tonga down by 0.44ppts to 1.81% growth as current activity estimates do not point towards a strong post-disaster and post-Covid rebound. Weak agricultural production is the main drag on growth, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Honduras
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Honduras We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth for Honduras by 0.7ppts to 3.1% y/y, as we expect negative impacts on confidence, investment, and exports after the Supreme Court ruled ZEDE special economic zones unconstitutional. The zones had increased FDI attra ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger The 2,000-km Niger-Benin Oil Export Pipeline is anticipated to transform Niger into a significant regional oil producer. Boasting a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipel ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone Weak economic institutions, persistent cost-of-living crises, and high susceptibility to external shocks hinder sustained economic growth in Sierra Leone. Nevertheless, easing inflation should bolster government spending and private sector activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia We forecast GDP growth for Bolivia of 2.2% next year, backed by fiscal expenditure and public investment projects. But we've cut our 2024 GDP forecast by 0.6ppts to 1.0% due to the protracted riots and higher inflation weighing on feeble domestic d ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guatemala
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guatemala We have upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.5ppts to 4.1% y/y largely due to carry-over from stronger growth this year, which we now expect to rise by 1.2ppts to 4.3% y/y. Exports and investment have bounced back strongly after the El Niñ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela Our GDP growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y for 2024 and 3.5% y/y for 2025. The steady recovery in oil production has continued, about in line with our forecast. The country will likely reach 1mn bpd output next year, as foreign oil licence ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK) We forecast the British Virgin Islands' economy will grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. We've revised up our 2025 GDP forecast to reflect stronger-than-anticipated growth in the tourism sector, partly driven by the robust US econom ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nicaragua
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nicaragua We’ve raised our GDP growth forecast for Nicaragua by 0.8 ppts to 3.2% for this year, but we’ve cut our 2025 projection by 0.6 ppts to 1.6%. We expect that private consumption and investment will drive the economic slowdown next year amid slowing dow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Pakistan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Pakistan We lifted our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Pakistan slightly this year, reflecting a stronger Q1 historical estimate. Agricultural-sector prospects are promising, and there is room for recovery in the industry and services subsectors. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts for the Dominican Republic to 4.9% from 4.6% for this year and to 5.0% from 4.9% for 2025. We believe that most of the factors driving the recovery this year will continue to contribute to growth next ye ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica We've revised down our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jamaica slightly to 2.0% from 2.1% but we maintain our forecast of 2.1% growth for 2025. We think the slowdown in domestic consumption and external demand, and the only modest recovery in investme ... Read More
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