Category: Banking & Financial Services
Banking & Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria Economic activity in Austria remained weaker than we anticipated in recent months and heavy floods in September presented an additional drag. Consequently, we now expect flat quarterly growth for Q3. But risks are skewed to the downside as industrial prod ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo Following real GDP growth of 6.4% last year, we forecast economic growth to average 4.7% p.a. over the 2024-2025 period. Factors that will support economic activity over this time frame include structural reforms, key investments in the industrial sector, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso Burkina Faso’s fragile security situation has been compounded by persistent challenges, especially related to poor weather conditions and policy uncertainty in the mining sector. However, the surge in gold prices throughout 2024 has provided a sil ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom After an early-summer lull, UK GDP returned to growth in August. Though the pace of growth has clearly cooled from the well above-trend rates seen in H1 2024, the economy continues to enjoy decent momentum. We're unlikely to change our forecast that GDP ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin Benin’s economy rebounded strongly from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, expanding by 6.6% p.a. over the 2021-2023 period. This impressive performance is set to persist, and we forecast average annual growth of 6.2% for 2024 and 2025. Robust investm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The September data on consumer and producer prices were mixed, but it doesn't alter our near-term forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bps at each of its two remaining meetings this year. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Middle class opportunities are increasingly coming from markets with more balanced growth drivers, and less dependency on commodity exports. So an effective Asia strategy will be key for companies to capitalize on the largest scale and fastest growth of mi ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Lebanon faces a war that might be broader in scope than the one between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. After killing Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, in an attack on Beirut over the weekend, Israel looks poised to launch ground raids into ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom National accounts revisions confirmed that the UK's post-pandemic recovery was slightly stronger than initially thought. But a big downward revision to the saving ratio suggests less scope for dissaving from the household sector, so we plan to nudge down ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia Official GDP figures show that the Gambian economy exceeded expectations last year. Indications are that this year will be no different. The economy grew by 5.3% in 2023, supported by sound performances in the agricultural, telecommunications, and const ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles We forecast real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024 as investments in the information technology sector boost economic activity. While tourism revenue prospects for the short term are improving, tourist arrivals still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Incr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan We've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jordan to 1.6% down from 2.6% in 2023, underpinned by the ongoing regional conflict. Data for Q1 2024 shows a continued contraction in GDP for the second consecutive quarter on quarterly terms. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta We've trimmed our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.9% but raised our forecast for next year by the same amount to 4.0%. We estimate the positive impact from generative artificial intelligence will reach around 1.5% of GDP over the long term. We ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad Foreign direct investment in Chad surged by 48% y/y in 2023, largely directed at new oil and gas exploration and infrastructure. However, ongoing legal disputes between existing oil operators and the government, and uncertainty around the new political le ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi Heavy rains throughout Burundi between January and May this year have caused floods and landslides, leading to widespread displacement of people, infrastructural damage, and poor crop production. Given that over 80% of Burundians are employed in the ag ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros We forecast real GDP growth in the Comoros to advance to 3.3% in 2024 – a noteworthy improvement on last year's actual economic growth rate of 2.7%. Short- to medium-term economic growth is anticipated to be primarily driven by real investments and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though monthly UK GDP data suggest the upturn may be faltering, recent outturns have been very noisy at a sectoral level, and we think the economy continues to carry solid momentum. So we have maintained our forecast that GDP will grow by 1.1% this year and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Reserve will kick off its rate-cutting cycle at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the only outstanding question being whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps. We think the data only justifies a 25bp cut. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets A positive lesson from the recent global volatility is that EM bonds and FX appear partially insulated when the risk-off is associated with declining US inflation expectations and a weakening greenback. Furthermore, we see an upside risk for EM bond return ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Economic policy uncertainty is rising earlier than normal for a presidential election year, and this has implications for the Q4 growth profile. Because of heightened uncertainty, we will adjust our forecast for Q4 business investment in nonresidential structures and eq ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica We've nudged up our forecast for Costa Rica's GDP growth this year by 0.2ppts to 3.7% as investment figures surprised to the upside in Q2 2024. However, consumption has slowed down amid lower growth in real incomes and higher unemployment. M ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Business survey data suggests that UK activity has continued to grow at a solid pace in Q3. The composite PMI is running at a similar level to H1 2024, though the patchy relationship with official output data suggests we shouldn't take these results too ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided another clear signal that the Fed will cut rates in September. We think it would take a large, negative surprise in the labor market data between ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Prolonged monetary policy hawkishness presents a significant risk to demand growth across emerging markets (EMs). In the short run, central banks can justify tight policies as progress on disinflation has slowed and because of heightened financial market v ... Read More
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