Category: Banking & Financial Services
Banking & Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We've lowered our growth forecast for Sweden in 2024 by 0.1ppt to 0.7% and increased it by 0.1ppt to 2.3% in 2025 due to a downside surprise to Q3 GDP. We now project medium-term GDP will be 0.1ppt smaller due to expected policy changes following the U ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire Côte d’Ivoire’s outlook has strengthened due to improving cocoa production prospects, rising oil and gold output, moderating inflation, and greater economic activity. The IMF-backed revenue-based fiscal consolidation will improve the country’s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, given our pessimistic view on domestic demand. This is lower than the 2.7% expansion we forecast for this year. We see no noticeable impact from Donald Trump's second presidency on Turkey& ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Belize
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Belize We have nudged up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Belize by 0.2ppts to 2.8% driven by the country's favourable conditions for business processing outsourcing. This has resulted in a reduction of the unemployment rate to a record low of 3.3% and inc ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Global EM
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Global EM Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at a mild 0.1ppt downward revision to 1.8% from last month, despite strong activity releases at the margin. The carryover from 2024 should amount to more than 1ppt to annual growth, which implies a subdued pace ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Solomon Islands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Solomon Islands We have revised up our 2024 GDP growth forecast for the Solomon Islands by 0.1ppts to 2.3%, still below the Asia Pacific average of 3.9%. We expect similar levels of growth through 2025, as large infrastructure projects outlined in the Solomon' ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Reunion
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Reunion We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Reunion by 0.5ppts to 3.4%. Muted economic growth in France and the broader eurozone will weigh on Reunion's tourism industry. France's new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, has proposed major budget ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US We will refine our assumptions in an update to our forecast next week, including incorporating more aggressive tariffs against China, and on a wider range of countries in Asia. Uncertainty around trade policy will remain elevated, and we will continue to produce and upd ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Myanmar
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Myanmar We have further revised down our 2024 GDP forecast for Myanmar to 2.0% on the back of the deteriorating security situation, which is affecting every corner of the economy. Confidence is falling and inflation remains high, severely impacting already low re ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Panama
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Panama We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Panama by 0.2ppts to 3.2%. This upgrade accounts for the key infrastructure projects set to boost fixed investment both this year and next, which will make domestic demand the primary engine of short-term growt ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cuba
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cuba We cut Cuba’s 2025 GDP growth forecast by 1.6ppts to 1.9%, following an estimated 0.9% contraction this year. Disruptions at the country’s largest thermoelectric plant and reduced fuel shipments from Russia and Venezuela caused widespread blackouts, while ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland We forecast Ireland's GDP will expand by 4% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, following a 1.5% decline this year. GDP contracted in Q2, marking the fifth decline in six quarters. Preliminary figures for Q3 signalled a 2% q/q rebound, which we think is the sta ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Paraguay
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Paraguay We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Paraguay by 0.2ppts to 3.8%, but raised our 2024 growth projection by the same amount to 3.9%. A robust labor market and a recovery in real wages, along with more accommodative financial conditions, support our ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada We have lowered our GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 1.3% in 2025 and by 0.5ppts to 1.7% in 2026. The government's plan to cut immigration and the number of temporary residents will cause the population to fall slightly over the next two years. This w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium We forecast the Belgian economy will expand by 1.2% in 2025, after 0.9% growth in 2024, as the impact of monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. A data revision suggests momentum was not as strong as believed. We expect inflation to average 1. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Vincent and the Grenadines We trimmed our GDP growth forecast for St Vincent and the Grenadines by 0.4ppts to 4.5% y/y for 2024 and 0.3ppts to 2.9%y/y for 2025 because of damage caused by Category 5 Hurricane Beryl in July. The impact of Beryl this year is li ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru We've kept our GDP growth forecast for Peru in 2025 unchanged at 3% amid resilient domestic demand and flexible financial conditions. However, we expect economic activity will slow in Q4 2024 due to intermittent strikes and protests, which pose downsi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Vanuatu
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Vanuatu We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Vanuatu to 1.4% for 2024 and to 1.6% for 2025. We largely attribute our downgrades to the liquidation of the country's national airline in May, which led to a swathe of flight cancellations and limited travel ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Maldives
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Maldives We forecast the Maldives' economy will grow by a moderate 3.9% in 2025, after expanding by 7.3% this year. Our outlook accounts for the government's plan to reduce public sector investment, particularly in construction, in an effort to contain fi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Yemen, Rep
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Yemen, Rep We've downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Yemen to 3.1% from 3.6% as we expect the escalating conflict in the Middle East will cause significant disruptions in Red Sea shipping lines that connect Yemen's key ports. Plus, with households ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati We expect Kiribati's GDP will grow by a modest 0.9% next year, following strong growth of 3% in 2024. The positive growth effects of a 38% rise in public sector wages in 2024 is expected to taper off next year. Kiribati's economic performance con ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States Following the outcome of the US elections, we have adopted our 'limited Trump' scenario as our new baseline forecast. Our new baseline assumes a Republican-led Congress extends the 2017 personal tax cuts and enacts higher spending. We also a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico We've recently cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Mexico by 0.2ppts to 1.7%. The revision accounts for base effects from the lift to our 2024 growth estimate to 1.3% in seasonally adjusted terms. Our forecast for next year is still well above the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Australia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Australia We've kept our GDP growth forecasts unchanged at 1.1% for 2024 and 2.0% for 2025. We've seen some signs the Australian economy is running a little hotter than we previously thought over the past month, which doesn't bode well for its ongoing ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Afghanistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Afghanistan We've slashed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Afghanistan by 9.3ppts to a meagre 0.4% expansion. Although over 23mn people – more than half of Afghanistan's population – still require humanitarian assistance, the UN has only received 30% of i ... Read More
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