Category: International Trade
Europe International Trade
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
... recovery, even if the process proves delayed compared to what was expected. First, the recent survey results point to record input price pressures and renewed supply delivery issues, which will keep a lid on industrial ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
... tighter monetary policy weigh on spending, a strong Q1 growth performance will support this year's GDP print. Moreover, we think loose fiscal policy and high nominal wage growth will cushion the impact of higher prices ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
... Ukraine's GDP to contract by about 35% this year, followed by a relatively shallow recovery in 2023 and 2024 (Chart 1). By 2027, we expect Ukraine's GDP will still be 13.5% below its pre-war levels. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia
... in Q1, this mainly reflects buoyant growth in January-February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having already banned coal imports, the EU is currently considering further sanctions to restrict oil and gas imports from Russia, which ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... the cost-of-living crisis, both exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, continue to weigh on the economy. But growth should bounce back in 2023 at 3.4% as headwinds begin to subside and the external backdrop improves. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
... suggests the country has started to adjust to "war economy" conditions. We still see the economy shrinking by about 35% y/y this year, as prolonged fighting in parts of Ukraine is partially offset by adjustment ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
... Russia and Ukraine on France’s exports and imports, the real pain will be felt in sharply higher energy prices. Overall, we continue to expect French GDP to expand by 3.0% in 2022, and by 2.0% ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania
... remained buoyant in March, due to government support for households and SME energy bills which was extended until March 2023 to support private consumption. However, downside risks remain, with inflation rising on the back of ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... our outlook. Otherwise, growth prospects remain resolute. An incredibly tight labour market should see strong wage growth this year, which will partially offset the impact of higher inflation on real incomes. Government accounts will also ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... our outlook. Otherwise, growth prospects remain resolute. An incredibly tight labour market should see strong wage growth this year, which will partially offset the impact of higher inflation on real incomes. Government accounts will also ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... retail sales added to the evidence that cost of living pressures are adversely impacting the economy. April's flash PMIs also fell, with the composite index at a three-month low, albeit comfortably still in growth territory. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
... we expect Spanish GDP to grow 4.8% this year (down from our previous 5.1% forecast) and 3.9% in 2023. An extension of the conflict or escalation in hostilities will likely lead to further downward revisions ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
... incomes and private consumption. Input shortages had been easing until Russia's invasion of Ukraine but have worsened, although Swedish bilateral trade with Russia is small, as is its energy dependence on the country. The outlook ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
... more downbeat view on the industrial outlook, given a swift hit from new supply bottlenecks already in March. We now expect GDP growth of 2.0% in 2022, down from 2.4% last month. Our 2023 GDP ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
... of French elections at the end of this month. The results of the first round show the unprecedented fragmentation of public opinion amid a clear rise of the extremes on the far right and left. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
... of Ukraine, but headwinds are now intensifying. We expect geopolitics to impact trade, with the direct hit from Austria's trade with Russia and Ukraine amplified by strained European value chains and the effects of sanctions. ... Read More
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Romania In-depth PEST Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Romania through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Romania through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... services and construction PMIs offered some indication that the economy carried a degree of momentum at the end of Q1, despite intensifying cost of living pressures. But firms have become much gloomier about the future. Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... for Q4 2021 took the quarterly UK GDP series to within a whisker of its pre-pandemic level. But the expenditure breakdown suggests the recovery has been very uneven and heavily reliant on the public sector. Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom Industrial production had been increasing slowly but steadily since last October thanks to easing supply chain pressures, but remains about 2% below pre-pandemic levels. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
... higher energy commodity prices will keep inflation elevated for longer, which will weigh on real incomes and consumer spending. However, looser fiscal policy, due in part to new refugee-related and military spending, will cushion some ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
... will stay higher for longer, weighing on consumption, a major growth driver last year. In addition, heightened supply shortages will keep a lid on the industrial rebound, especially in the automotive sector. We now expect ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
... path through January amid a rebound in automotive production as supply bottlenecks were steadily easing. But it will be among the hardest hit European economies with respect to the rise in energy prices and s Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... 0.7ppts to 3.6%. While government subsidies for household electricity bills are containing energy price rises, the stark strengthening of underlying price pressures has led us to expect the strongest year for inflation since 1989, which ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... main cuplrit, but supply chains, the exchange rate and trade will all be negatively affected. We expect the economy to rebound in 2023, growing 3.4% as many of the adverse factors from this year subside. Read More
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