Category: International Trade
Europe International Trade
-
Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine
... plateaued in May, as broken supply chains, destroyed infrastructure, displaced population and fuel shortages put a cap on the degree to which the economy can adapt. Such trends are consistent with our expectation that the ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
... pre-election spending and government interventions to limit energy price growth. But headwinds to the recovery are mounting. Tightening of the monetary-fiscal policy mix prompted by the growing pressure on the Hungarian forint (HUF) will weigh ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... a rebound in investment and resilient industrial production and exports of goods. But the outlook remains dimmer in the near term, with growth essentially flat Q2 and Q3 before picking up to 3% in 2023. Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... cost of living pressures. It’s still unclear what effect a more generous bills rebate will have on official inflation, but the targeted nature of the new support means any indirect inflationary boost should be limited. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... the year caused the contraction. With the economy back close to its November 2021 peak in March, positive carryover effects should support a GDP rebound in Q2. In H2, high inflation, renewed supply bottlenecks and ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
... lockdowns in China, we have lowered our GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt this year to 3.1%, but for 2023 we have raised it to 1.7% (from 1.6% last month). Inflation has continued to rise in ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... coming along the supply chain, the renewed rise in petrol prices, and the recent weakness of sterling. Regular pay growth remains well short of inflation and, along with rises in personal taxation, means a steep ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
... see Belgian GDP advancing 2.1% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023, down 0.8ppts and 0.2ppts, respectively, from February. As for inflation, we have raised again our call for both 2022 and 2023 to 7% and ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
... GDP estimate suggests the economy contracted slightly in Q1, although this was driven largely by an unwinding of health expenditures related to the pandemic. Nevertheless, this has lowered our 2022 GDP forecast 0.5pts to 3.9%. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
... last month after Q1 GDP data came in slightly better than expected, yet down more than 1ppt since our February forecast. With energy prices expected to remain higher for longer, Italian inflation is set to ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
... higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe. We expect the economy to struggle ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
... the fallout from high numbers of Covid cases in early 2022 and more recently the war in Ukraine, which is weighing on eurozone and Greek growth and putting upward pressure on inflation. The general economic ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
... 2.4% from 2.6% last month, after factoring in weaker indicators for Q1 and additional disruptions to supply chains from the lockdowns in China. But we are maintaining our 2023 GDP forecast at a 1.4% expansion. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
... 2022 GDP growth forecast downward to 1.8% from 2.0% last month, after factoring in additional disruptions to supply chains and industrial activity from the lockdowns in China. Our 2023 GDP forecast holds at 3.1% expansion. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Europe - Serbia
... 9.6% in April) continues to rise. Russia is Serbia's fifth-largest trade partner (after Germany, China, Italy, and Romania), and it doesn't help that a slowdown is expected in those countries, too. Higher oil prices have ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... was concentrated entirely in the first month of the quarter. Output stagnated in February and fell slightly in March, meaning activity had lost momentum even before the full weight of cost of living pressures hit. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
... We see Spanish GDP growing 4.5% this year (down from our previous 4.8% forecast) and 3.6% in 2023. On a positive note, tourism indicators suggest the sector will see a solid recovery this year, providing ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... was predictable, the committee's confusing messaging meant that its future plans are much less clear. In particular, though their new forecasts show GDP falling in 2023, the MPC suggested further rate hikes would be needed. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
... recovery, even if the process proves delayed compared to what was expected. First, the recent survey results point to record input price pressures and renewed supply delivery issues, which will keep a lid on industrial ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
... tighter monetary policy weigh on spending, a strong Q1 growth performance will support this year's GDP print. Moreover, we think loose fiscal policy and high nominal wage growth will cushion the impact of higher prices ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
... Ukraine's GDP to contract by about 35% this year, followed by a relatively shallow recovery in 2023 and 2024 (Chart 1). By 2027, we expect Ukraine's GDP will still be 13.5% below its pre-war levels. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia
... in Q1, this mainly reflects buoyant growth in January-February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having already banned coal imports, the EU is currently considering further sanctions to restrict oil and gas imports from Russia, which ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... the cost-of-living crisis, both exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, continue to weigh on the economy. But growth should bounce back in 2023 at 3.4% as headwinds begin to subside and the external backdrop improves. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Europe
... suggests the country has started to adjust to "war economy" conditions. We still see the economy shrinking by about 35% y/y this year, as prolonged fighting in parts of Ukraine is partially offset by adjustment ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
... Russia and Ukraine on France’s exports and imports, the real pain will be felt in sharply higher energy prices. Overall, we continue to expect French GDP to expand by 3.0% in 2022, and by 2.0% ... Read More
Research Assistance
