Category: International Trade
Europe International Trade
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... for Q4 2021 took the quarterly UK GDP series to within a whisker of its pre-pandemic level. But the expenditure breakdown suggests the recovery has been very uneven and heavily reliant on the public sector. Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom Industrial production had been increasing slowly but steadily since last October thanks to easing supply chain pressures, but remains about 2% below pre-pandemic levels. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
... higher energy commodity prices will keep inflation elevated for longer, which will weigh on real incomes and consumer spending. However, looser fiscal policy, due in part to new refugee-related and military spending, will cushion some ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
... will stay higher for longer, weighing on consumption, a major growth driver last year. In addition, heightened supply shortages will keep a lid on the industrial rebound, especially in the automotive sector. We now expect ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
... path through January amid a rebound in automotive production as supply bottlenecks were steadily easing. But it will be among the hardest hit European economies with respect to the rise in energy prices and s Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... 0.7ppts to 3.6%. While government subsidies for household electricity bills are containing energy price rises, the stark strengthening of underlying price pressures has led us to expect the strongest year for inflation since 1989, which ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... main cuplrit, but supply chains, the exchange rate and trade will all be negatively affected. We expect the economy to rebound in 2023, growing 3.4% as many of the adverse factors from this year subside. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
... the underlying weakness. A spike in Q4 imports is likely to reverse, causing GDP growth to rebound in early 2022. But the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on energy prices is pushing inflation higher ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
... forecast to 5.7% for this year (from 5.1% last month) and 1.1% in 2023. The high pass-through of gas prices in the Netherlands will hit households' disposable income and consumption spending, so we have cut ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
... growth to slow considerably from 10% in 2021 to 2.6% in 2022, down from our previous forecast of 4.4%. Higher inflation, stemming from elevated global commodity prices, will disrupt growth this year as supply bottlenecks ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
... how long the fighting will last. Judging by Russia’s stalled offensive, we base our forecast on the assumption that the acute phase of the war will not extend beyond May, at which point a tentative ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
... advancing 2.9% in 2022, 0.7pp down from a month ago, and 3.9% in 2023. As for inflation, we have raised our call for 2022 and 2023 to 8.7% and 2.3% respectively (from 2.0% and 1.2%). Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
... mainly via high commodity prices, slowdowns in trading partners and the effect of sanctions on Russia and Belarus, both of which share a border with Lithuania. The outlook is highly uncertain, with the potential for ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
... year. We have also cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 1ppt to 2.9%. Moreover, the speed at which events are unfolding means that uncertainty remains extremely high, with risks clearly skewed to the downside. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
... second highest on record, driven by government consumption and net trade, leaving the economy 6.6% larger than prior to the pandemic. But we expect growth to slow in the near term, with inflation peaking higher ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
... GDP growth has been revised down to 5.8% from 6.1% last month. All Covid containment restrictions have now been removed in Romania, although the conflict in Ukraine will have a negative impact on growth through ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
... inflation to levels not seen since the 1980's. This will primarily impact consumers, who are likely to see their real income fall sequentially over the course of 2022 after having reined back spending in Q4 ... Read More
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Global Economic Outlook: Impact of War in Ukraine
... impact channels would be accelerated energy and commodity prices, disruptions in the global supply chains and reduced business and consumer confidence. Beyond global spillovers, the depth of the impact varies among economies, with the Eurozone ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
... higher inflation, weighing on disposable incomes and private consumption. Input shortages, which had been easing until the invasion, are likely to worsen again, although Swedish trade with Russia and Ukraine had been minimal. The outlook ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
... Ukraine. As well as inflation being higher for longer, which will squeeze real incomes and dent consumption, Russia accounts for 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe. We expect the economy to ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... change in tone. Growing concerns about the downside risks to growth from high inflation mean that we think another 25bps hike in the UK policy rate in May will be the last for a while. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
... Russian invasion of Ukraine. This follows solid 7.9% expansion in 2021. Although the national accounts showed downward revisions for Q2 and Q3 last year, the economy experienced a mild expansion in Q4. We now expect ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
... down from a month ago, and 1.5% in 2023. As for inflation, we have raised our call for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.4% and 1.2% respectively (from 5.2% and 0.8%). The latest events clearly ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Malta
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Malta Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2022, increasing by 1.8%, picking up to 2.3% growth in 2023. Read More
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