Category: International Trade
Europe International Trade
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
... year. We have also cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 1ppt to 2.9%. Moreover, the speed at which events are unfolding means that uncertainty remains extremely high, with risks clearly skewed to the downside. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
... second highest on record, driven by government consumption and net trade, leaving the economy 6.6% larger than prior to the pandemic. But we expect growth to slow in the near term, with inflation peaking higher ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
... GDP growth has been revised down to 5.8% from 6.1% last month. All Covid containment restrictions have now been removed in Romania, although the conflict in Ukraine will have a negative impact on growth through ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
... inflation to levels not seen since the 1980's. This will primarily impact consumers, who are likely to see their real income fall sequentially over the course of 2022 after having reined back spending in Q4 ... Read More
-
Global Economic Outlook: Impact of War in Ukraine
... impact channels would be accelerated energy and commodity prices, disruptions in the global supply chains and reduced business and consumer confidence. Beyond global spillovers, the depth of the impact varies among economies, with the Eurozone ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
... higher inflation, weighing on disposable incomes and private consumption. Input shortages, which had been easing until the invasion, are likely to worsen again, although Swedish trade with Russia and Ukraine had been minimal. The outlook ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
... Ukraine. As well as inflation being higher for longer, which will squeeze real incomes and dent consumption, Russia accounts for 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe. We expect the economy to ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... change in tone. Growing concerns about the downside risks to growth from high inflation mean that we think another 25bps hike in the UK policy rate in May will be the last for a while. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
... Russian invasion of Ukraine. This follows solid 7.9% expansion in 2021. Although the national accounts showed downward revisions for Q2 and Q3 last year, the economy experienced a mild expansion in Q4. We now expect ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
... down from a month ago, and 1.5% in 2023. As for inflation, we have raised our call for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.4% and 1.2% respectively (from 5.2% and 0.8%). The latest events clearly ... Read More
-
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Malta
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Malta Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2022, increasing by 1.8%, picking up to 2.3% growth in 2023. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
... the rebound in spending. New supply disruptions are also set to constrain the budding recovery in industrial production, at least in the near-term. We now expect GDP growth of 2.4% in 2022, down from 3.5% ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
... will likely be among the eurozone countries least affected economically by the conflict. The structure and composition of the Portuguese electricity market are expected to continue to mitigate the rise in prices, while Portugal also ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
... shock to the UK economy triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Inflation is set to rise above 8% later in the spring and we have downgraded our forecast for GDP growth this year and next. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
... but headwinds are now intensifying. We expect a large hit to trade, a direct hit from trade with Russia and Ukraine, amplified by closely integrated European value-chains and the impact of sanctions. And we also ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
... incomes. We now expect GDP to grow 5.1% this year (from a previous 5.6% forecast) and 3.9% in 2023. If the conflict escalates and continues for an extended period, it will lead to further downward ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
... will delay some of the pain for consumers and mean the bigger hit to activity comes next year, leading us to cut our 2023 GDP growth forecast by 0.5ppts to 2.1%. The weaker growth outlook ... Read More
-
Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
... Russian invasion of Ukraine probably dampening trade and investment. Finance, exports and energy supplies are more resilient than in past times of Russian isolation, with more scope for fiscal action to counter lower private-sector and ... Read More
-
Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
... strong carry-over effects into early 2022, caution is warranted. Record-high inflation will continue to drag on consumer spending. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will hit trade and sentiment, and will further boost inflation through ... Read More
-
Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
... trade and commodity prices. It’s too early to incorporate the impact in our forecast, as the final scope of economic sanctions is not yet known, so we have kept our GDP forecast for 2022 at ... Read More
-
Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... our assumptions. However, we are likely to cut our forecast in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has pushed up energy prices further on top of the large upside inflation surprise in January. Read More
-
Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... Q4 despite a 0.4% m/m contraction in December due to the reimposition of Covid containment measures. While growth is expected to slow in Q1, we see monthly momentum picking up now that all restrictions on ... Read More
-
Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
... result of this and the lifting of nearly all containment measures by end-February, we have raised our GDP growth forecast for this year substantially to 4.1% from 3.5% previously, but we still see growth of ... Read More
-
Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
... to around 2% in 2023. And while cost pressures facing firms stayed very elevated, there were signs of some easing. That said, the recent upward pressure on energy prices from geopolitical tensions threatens to worsen ... Read More
-
Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
... the years ahead, we expect growth to normalise and hover around 1.5% in 2023-25 after the strong recovery from the shock of the pandemic. We have raised our 2022 inflation forecast sharply to 5.2% due ... Read More
Research Assistance
