Category: International Trade
Europe International Trade
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
... expansion expected this year, Spain will remain one of the fastest-growing economies in the eurozone. Strong growth in services will still drive activity, though the contribution from the booming tourism sector will continue to moderate. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
... Though we expect the Bank of England to steadily cut the policy rate next year, tightening fiscal policy and the lagged impact of past interest rate hikes on households will be powerful headwinds to activity. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2024, increasing by 10.2%, picking up to 13.5% growth in 2025. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... at a modest growth pace, failing to pick up momentum. But we expect growth will strengthen to 2.8% next year as monetary easing feeds through to a lower domestic savings rate and demand improves for ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
... projection by 0.1ppts to 0.8% as GDP figures for Q3 2024 were a bit less favourable than we expected, resulting in a weaker carryover. Plus, deteriorating business sentiment is clouding the outlook for next year. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... expansionary 2025 budget suggests a stronger-than-expected fiscal impulse totalling 0.7ppts next year. This will make fiscal policy a key growth driver next year as monetary policy continues to constrain private sector investment and household spending. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
... and data revisions show a 0.7% q/q uptick in Q1. Luxembourg's economy is set to outpace growth in the eurozone and post a marked recovery as easing monetary policy supports the outlook. The strength in ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland We've maintained our GDP growth forecast for Switzerland at 1.0% for this year and 1.5% for 2025 (adjusted for revenues from major sporting events). Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Europe
... to 4.1% in 2025, an improvement from recent years. Stabilising natural gas prices and stronger-than-expected population growth will be the main growth drivers next year as the economy strengthens from several years of soft growth. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Montenegro
... next year. We expect solid growth at the tail end of this year as inflation continues to ease and monetary policy loosens. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict represents a significant downside risk to the 2025 outlook. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
... revision was triggered by a negative surprise in Q3 when GDP contracted for the second consecutive quarter. While we expect growth to pick up in 2026-2027, we consider risks as increasingly skewed to the downside. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Macedonia
... inflation. We think this policy will take effect at the end of 2024, leading us to lower our CPI estimate for 2024 to 3.2%. However, we think inflation will rise again in 2025 because we ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
... our 2024 forecast based on relatively subdued Q3 growth. We project inflation will pick up to average 1.9% next year, as the contribution from energy inflation will likely increase from a sizeable drop this year. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
... year is based on soft activity over Q3 with as the economy shrank on the back of weak industry and sales. But we still expect domestic demand from consumers, and increasingly from investment, will drive ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus
... surprise in domestic demand and increased exports. Strong momentum in private consumption, owing to rising incomes, supported GDP growth this year. But we expect this trend will moderate over the medium term as political risks ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
... wage growth alongside lower inflation helps drive the recovery in consumption. We expect inflation will average 2.5% in 2025, down from 3.4% in 2024, thanks to lower international energy prices and easing underlying inflationary pressures. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
... lower due to data revisions. We maintain our call of a 0.1% contraction this year and don't expect a meaningful economic impact from the breakdown of the German traffic light coalition in the near term, ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Moldova
... EU, Moldova's main trading partner. We expect growth will rise to about 3.9% in both 2025 and 2026, from an estimated 3.0% y/y in 2024. But the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, policy uncertainty in the run ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
... growth next year. Finland's exports to the US amount to 3% of GDP. But only a tiny share is from sectors we expect will face higher US tariffs. We lifted our 2024 forecast slightly due ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bosnia and Herzegovina
... forecast by 0.2ppts as private consumption is taking more time to rebound than we expected, and due to weaker carryover from 2023. But we think the recovery will gain momentum from next year, as the ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
... Q3 GDP. We now project medium-term GDP will be 0.1ppt smaller due to expected policy changes following the US elections, namely more protectionism. But we still expect the economy to pick up pace due to ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
... in six quarters. Preliminary figures for Q3 signalled a 2% q/q rebound, which we think is the start of a recovery. But this is far from guaranteed given persistent data distortions, leaving near-term risks skewed ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
... manufacturing recovers. A data revision suggests momentum was not as strong as believed. We expect inflation to average 1.5% in 2025, after 3.1% in 2024, thanks to lower international energy prices and easing inflationary pressures. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
... overall outlook remains solid. Improving real disposable incomes and the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility will support growth. The economy will also benefit from its continued strong tourism activity. But as tourism growth normalises, we ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Albania
... sector – evidenced by rising confidence and strong annual output growth – and a booming tourism sector, with record-high arrivals nearly 20% above last year's cumulative figures through August. July's rate cut will provide an ... Read More
Research Assistance
