Category: International Trade
Europe International Trade
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
... public finances, there is little scope for a delay in planned fiscal consolidation to offset the drag from greater trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty. We expect these effects to build over time, so we ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
... 50% from 20% previously. Under this scenario, there is a short-term "peace dividend" to investor and consumer confidence. But a re-escalation risk premium persists in the medium- to long-term, hindering Ukraine's recovery, reconstruction, and return ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... impact on growth in 2025, as they will be offset by looser monetary policy and a pause in fiscal consolidation. But the Czech economy is vulnerable to trade restrictions, so we have lowered our 2026 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
... line with the poor reading for Q3. We now assume the US will hit Europe with a 10% blanket tariff. Fiscal policy remains a drag, trade uncertainty is elevated, and labour market risks skew to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
... sporting event-adjusted GDP growth forecast for Switzerland by 0.1ppt to 1.4% in 2026. Our update reflects the indirect effects of recent US political developments, which are likely to damage business confidence and reduce global trade. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus
... moderate as exports slow in H2 as Russian import-substitution weighs on exports from Belarus to its key market. Political risks continue to weigh on the economy, though their severity has waned following the relatively smooth ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for mainland Norway by 0.2ppts to 1.3%. The economy ended 2024 with a surprise contraction, but we think this was driven by volatile inventories rather than weaker domestic demand. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
... annual growth forecast this year due to the strong carryover. However, our assessment weakened as US tariffs and the EU's response will impact exports and investment, with Denmark exposed due to its highly open economy. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
... impact we expect from US tariffs and the repercussions in the Eurozone. We expect growth in business investment to be substantially lower than previously anticipated due to heightened uncertainty and lower export prospects for industry. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
... of recent US political developments, which are likely to damage business confidence, reduce global trade, and result in tighter financial conditions. Moreover, we think the risks to UK growth are still skewed to the downside. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
... lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.6% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflationary process. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
... estimate for Q4 indicated growth at 1.3% q/q. While we expect the solid performance to continue, weak foreign demand and high interest rates at home will keep a lid on its pace. However, the strong ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
... 2026. US tariffs and the EU's response will lower foreign demand, raise uncertainty, and make inflation stickier, which will further delay the industrial recovery, undermine corporate capex, and dent real income and consumer spending prospects. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
... real income growth. Unemployment is also set to decline at a slower pace. We still expect a domestic demand-led pick-up in activity, but have lowered our GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 1.3% in 2025 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
... the economy entered 2025 on a soft footing. The cut to the 2026 forecast is a consequence of incorporating the assumption of reciprocal 10% tariffs between the US and EU. With Hungary being one of ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
... EU by the US, which will dampen exports and investment. Meanwhile, higher inflation and uncertainty will negatively affect consumption. Unemployment is also set to decline at a slower pace. That said, we still expect a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
... next, as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflationary process. Read More
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Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Ireland
... in 2024. Mining, manufacturing, and utilities contributed 33.4% to Ireland’s gross value added (GVA) in 2024, followed by financial intermediation, real estate, and business activities (23.6%), and transport, storage, and communication (18.9%). In nominal terms, ... Read More
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Europe Trade Finance Market Size, Share, Trends & Analysis by Financing Type (Trade Credit, Trade Loans, Factoring, Forfaiting, Export Credit Agencies), by Transaction Size (Small and Medium-Sized Transactions, Large Transactions, Mega Transactions), by Industry Vertical (Manufacturing, Retail and Wholesale, Agriculture, Energy, Healthcare), by Digitalization Level (Traditional Trade Finance, Digital Trade Finance, Embedded Trade Finance) and Region, with Forecasts from 2024 to 2034.
... mitigating trade risks. The market is projected to reach USD XX.XX billion by 2034, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of XX.XX% from USD XX.XX billion in 2024. Key growth drivers include: Advancements ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
... turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the above-3% GDP growth in 2026 amid a continued rebound in domestic demand and some improvement in the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
... year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP growth will slow but remain healthy as the positive output gap narrows. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
... don't expect an imminent pickup in activity. But recent monthly retail sales data suggest improved consumer spending in Q4 2024 and we maintain consumption will be the main driver of growth over the near term. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
... government on January 16 put an end to the political stalemate since the snap elections last October. However, we think the government will find it difficult to achieve a well-functioning and effective coalition, as seven ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
... GDP growth is expected to have been broadly flat during Q4 2024 and will take time to gain pace in 2025 given that sentiment remains subdued, making up for a weak start of the year. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
... in 2024. Irish GDP rebounded by 3.5% q/q in Q3. We think this is the start of a recovery after five declines in the previous six quarters. But this isn't guaranteed given persistent data distortions. Read More
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