Category: International Trade
Europe International Trade
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
... from crucial destruction of energy infrastructure and manufacturing capacities, labour shortages, and rising inflation. But it is supported by high spending on defence and a broadly stable macroeconomic environment, enabled by extensive Western financial support. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
... we expect the ensuing recovery to be gradual at best due to soft foreign demand and tight policy mix at home. So, while we continue to expect GDP growth to increase to over 3% in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
... turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the above-3% GDP growth in 2026 amid a continued rebound in domestic demand and some improvement in the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... Steady growth in consumer spending, underpinned by healthy real earnings growth, will likely continue to drive growth in 2025. We also expect a gradual improvement in capital spending towards H2 2025, with the policy mix ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
... spending and investment likely to be the principal drivers of this upturn. However, the ongoing weakness in key European trading partners and the impact of tighter fiscal policy should temper the pace of the recovery. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
... event adjusted GDP growth estimates for Switzerland at 1.4% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026. Current indicators suggest an ongoing bifurcated development characterised by solid private consumption and ongoing weak demand for traditional industry goods. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
... year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP growth will slow but remain healthy as the positive output gap narrows. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
... this year, following estimated growth of 1.0% in 2024, as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. We expect inflation will average 2.0% in 2025, after 3.1% in 2024, thanks to easing underlying inflationary pressures. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
... 1% in 2024, as the contribution from energy inflation will likely increase from the sizeable drop seen in recent quarters. Risks to our forecasts are to the downside and linked to domestic and international factors. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... and a resilient labour market driving consumption will support a cyclical rebound this year. Norges Bank's rate cuts will feed quickly into financial conditions, although the boost to growth won't fully materialise until next year. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
... growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. We expect inflation will average 2.6% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024, thanks to lower international energy prices and easing underlying inflationary pressures. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
... don't expect an imminent pickup in activity. But recent monthly retail sales data suggest improved consumer spending in Q4 2024 and we maintain consumption will be the main driver of growth over the near term. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
... modest pace. We expect investment will predominantly drive the pickup in the recovery this year due to the boost in EU-funded outlays. We also expect some improvement in exports. Still, we think subdued foreign demand ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
... government on January 16 put an end to the political stalemate since the snap elections last October. However, we think the government will find it difficult to achieve a well-functioning and effective coalition, as seven ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
... GDP growth is expected to have been broadly flat during Q4 2024 and will take time to gain pace in 2025 given that sentiment remains subdued, making up for a weak start of the year. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
... gains, lower interest rates, and stronger external demand will support growth this year. Key risks relate to the extent to which households spend or save real income gains, labour market strength, and global trade protectionism. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
... is likely to average 3% this year, we think markets are too hawkish on the outlook for monetary policy and we still expect the Bank of England to cut Bank Rate by 100bps in 2025. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
... in 2024. Irish GDP rebounded by 3.5% q/q in Q3. We think this is the start of a recovery after five declines in the previous six quarters. But this isn't guaranteed given persistent data distortions. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
... despite the slowdown in pharmaceutical production. Recovering consumer purchasing power as inflation remains below target and a favourable policy mix will also support the non-pharma economy. We think GDP growth likely averaged 2.7% last year. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
... external demand. But we see increased uncertainty around global trade protectionism and the extent to which households in Sweden and across Europe will spend or save their real income gains. The resilience of the labour ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
... indicate some upside risks to our forecast of GDP stagnating in Q4 2024. But we don't see that as a turning point, as economic policy remains restrictive, trade uncertainty is elevated, and labour market risks ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
... the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility will support growth. The economy will also benefit from its continued strong tourism activity. But as tourism growth normalises, we think domestic demand will remain the main growth engine. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
... slowdown from the estimated 3.1% expansion last year, Spain will remain one of the fastest-growing economies in the eurozone. Strong growth in services will still drive activity, though the contribution from the booming tourism sector ... Read More
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Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Finland
... (9.8%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are expected to grow by 3.0%, 3.1%, and 2.1%, respectively, in 2024. According to Eurostat, Helsinki, Tampere, and Turku generated around 56.2% of the nation’s GDP in 2023, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
... in Q3 2024, but was close to stagnation at 0.03%. This lack of momentum bodes poorly for growth prospects. Unlike in 2008 and 2020, when GDP posted a clear one-quarter bottoming out followed by a ... Read More
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