Category: Heavy Industry
Heavy Industry market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia We've kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Croatia at 3.5% but revised down our 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.8%. Our downgrade reflects the planned large hike in energy prices early next year that will cause real income growth to slow down co ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Data releases this week show that eurozone momentum remains weak. The October composite PMI is still in contractionary territory, though marginally. France's composite PMI deteriorated over the month, whereas Germany posted a gain for the first time since May. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria During the past quarter, Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune won the presidential election by a landslide. He once again repeated some of his very ambitious economic plans in his address to the nation. Given Algeria’s dependency on the hydrocarbon secto ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana Botswana’s diamond industry has continued to struggle after a poor start to the year: it contracted by 6.5% q/q in Q2, after a sharp decline of 16.6% q/q in Q1 2024. Recent diamond sales and export data have also revealed a concerning downward trend, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia Following a strong start to the year in Q1, economic growth slowed in Q2 2024 due to weaker mining and agricultural output. Softer demand for Namibia's commodity exports and the devastating local drought took their toll. The outlook for mining is m ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Despite a small respite from positive German industrial production numbers in August, most economic indicators in Europe continue to point to a persistent lack of momentum. Near-term prospects remain muted, as Europe's largest economy remains mired in a slump. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The eurozone's disinflation process reached an important milestone this week as inflation dipped below 2% for the first time in over three years. The details reinforced indications of a soft inflation print, and significantly, a quick cooling in services infla ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've upgraded our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran by 0.1ppt to 3.0%, on stronger-than-expected oil production and exports. Still, this is a marked slowdown from 5.0% growth in FY2023. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia Estonia's economy didn't shrink for the first time in more than two years in Q2, which indicates that the years-long recession has likely ended. The stagnation in Q2 and our forecast of soft growth in Q3 and Q4 will likely result in a mild GDP con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya In the past quarter, conflict risk in Libya has increased markedly. A struggle for influence over the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) precipitated a crisis in mid-August, and the CBL is now split between factions that follow the instructions of the country’s two rival ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again through the first half of 2024. Most of the positive signs cited in our last quarter’s report have either reversed or stalled out: monthly industrial production figures showed steep falls first in May and then ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Aerospace
Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Aerospace The aerospace industry is set to continue its positive growth trajectory in 2024, although at a slower rate compared to the previous year, with a forecasted expansion of 5%. Growth is expected to be more robust in advanced economies, with notable incr ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Chemicals
Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Chemicals The chemical industry was one the worst impacted by the energy crisis, as production is heavily reliant on oil and gas as feedstock. However, the sharp fall in energy prices, particularly gas prices, will ease pressure off chemical producers – especia ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone In a week of few major data releases, the fall in the Sentix index for a third consecutive month in September sounded another downbeat note for the near-term outlook in the eurozone. The fall is particularly large in Germany, where sentiment has fallen to levels n ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Basic Metals
Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Basic Metals We have revised higher our basic metals production forecast for 2024 to 3.8% after growth surprised to the upside in Q1, due to robust production in China. However, weak margins for metal producers in China will likely see growth slow in the coming ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 1.2ppts to just 0.6% since our last update in June. We attribute our downward revision primarily to a large growth disappointment in Q2, when the economy shrank by 1.1% q/q, posting the largest contr ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone We think this week's data releases cement the case for the ECB to cut rates in September. Key among them is today's flash inflation for August, which came in at 2.2%, adding to the large drop in negotiated wages from last week. Together with recent communi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica We've nudged up our forecast for Costa Rica's GDP growth this year by 0.2ppts to 3.7% as investment figures surprised to the upside in Q2 2024. However, consumption has slowed down amid lower growth in real incomes and higher unemployment. M ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Flash PMIs improved over the month in August, stopping the series of subdued surveys published recently. But this was primarily due to the impact of the Paris Olympics on the French services PMI, which reached its highest level in more than two years. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Survey data continue to paint the disappointing picture that eurozone sentiment and activity growth are deteriorating. A second consecutive monthly fall left the Sentix measure at a seven-month low in August. The final PMIs for July still suggest eurozone growth n ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone This week's flash PMIs provided more evidence that the eurozone recovery ran out of steam before it began. The eurozone composite PMI sunk in July to a level consistent with stagnation and a contraction in Germany and France. This was reinforced by national se ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea We estimate that North Korea GDP in 2023 turned positive for the first time in three years, thanks to a sudden increase in ammunition sales to Russia and non-state armed actors. That said, we still expect North Korea's economic outlook to remain c ... Read More
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