Category: Energy & Resources
Energy & Resources market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia's economic growth slowed at the back end of last year because of cuts in diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.4ppts to 2.3%. While we estimate a modest pick-up in activity in the final quarter of 2024 ended the year-long recession, the momentum at the turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the abo ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Growth in the non-oil economy had strong momentum heading into 2025, with Abu Dhabi’s Q3 2024 data pointing to a robust non-oil expansion. December's PMI climbed to 55.4 from 54.2 in November, the sharpest rise in new orders in nine months. We see this momentum carrying forward with 4.8% non-oil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We forecast Oman's GDP growth at 2.2% for this year, higher than the 1.5% estimate for 2024. In our 2025 growth outlook, we balance the delayed return to growth in the energy sector with a steady expansion of non-energy output, which we project at 3.0% (up from 2.8% previously). We think activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Croatia 0.8ppts to 2.6%. Sizeable historical revisions suggest that the economy was aggressively destocking last year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP g ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
India's economic growth momentum softened over the course of 2024 after a bumper 2023, although the slowdown in activity was less pronounced than we initially expected. For 2025, we forecast real GDP will grow by 6.5%, following an estimated 6.4% expansion last year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.3% this year, following a 0.9% expansion in 2024. The impact of tight monetary policy is set to unwind, while strong wage growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. We expect inflation will average 2.6% in 2025, down fro ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Oil prices have made a strong start to 2025, reaching a high of $82pb as the Biden administration placed further sanctions on Russia's oil industry. Prices have traded sideways since and the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is weighing on the geopolitical risk premium. The new sanctions put upside risk on ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
We've kept our near-term GDP forecast for Sweden largely unchanged and expect growth of 2.4% in 2025. We think activity will increase due to household real income gains, easing fiscal and monetary policies, and better external demand. But we see increased uncertainty around global trade protecti ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
We forecast the Kenyan economy to expand by 4.8% in 2025 due to a recovery in the industrial sector and sustained growth in the services sector. Key downside risks to our outlook include fiscal slippages, climate shocks, and delays in investment plans, notably from the US and UAE. Last year, the US ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We cut our growth forecast for Germany to 0.4% this year, down 0.2ppts. Surveys indicate that the industrial malaise continues, while higher inflation undermines the consumer recovery. The latest industrial activity and retail sales data indicate some upside risks to our forecast of GDP stagnating i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
The economy is doing well, but it will remain a bifurcated one. We forecast real GDP in the US will increase by 2.6% this year and 2.7% in 2026, which we think is around the economy’s short-run potential growth rate. We've raised our projection for real consumer spending growth for this year by ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We lowered our eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.1ppt to 1.1%. We expect GDP growth will gradually gain pace over the course of this year and expand by 1.5% in 2026. Risks for the eurozone are on the downside due to domestic and international factors. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
We are cautiously optimistic that Nigeria will enjoy a more favourable macroeconomic climate this year. Real GDP growth is projected to increase marginally to 3.1% this year from an estimated 3.0% in 2024 while remaining relatively flat over the medium term. The non-oil economy will be a growth driv ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s economy delivered a strong performance over the first three quarters of last year, expanding by 6.3% on a cumulative basis. Rising gold and oil production bolstered industrial activity over this period, while the ICT and financial sectors ensured robust growth in the services sector. The agr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
We forecast GDP growth for Estonia at 2.5% for 2025. We see signs of a recovery this year, but without a swift domestic turnaround it will be weak initially. Estonia's GDP growth was positive again in Q3 2024, but was close to stagnation at 0.03%. This lack of momentum bodes poorly for growth pr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've maintained our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran at 3.0%. However, we've cut the forecast for FY2025 to 2.3% from 2.5% previously, reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic demand as a result of the newly announced FY2025 budget ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.0%, to reflect another extension by OPEC+ of voluntary oil production cuts. The cartel has announced it will delay unwinding cuts until at least the end of Q1, due to concerns over weak demand. We ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru We cut our GDP growth forecast for Peru in 2025 marginally by 0.1ppt to 2.9% due to an upward revision in historical data for this year. We expect the economy slowed in Q4 after a strong recovery in the previous quarters due to intermittent protests in Oc ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again in Q3, this time falling by 1.4% q/q. There is little reason for cheer in most of the recent data: October, the first month of Q4, showed another drop in the industrial production index, bringing levels to jus ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya Oil production recovered markedly over the past two months, following disruptions to production in August and September due to political turmoil. A struggle for influence over the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) led to a political crisis in mid-August and a sharp drop ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador We revised our growth forecast up by 0.6ppts to 1.8% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 after a null growth in 2024. Private demand is expected to recover from a 1% contraction in 2024 to 1.8% growth in 2025. This rebound is mainly due to base effects, as market ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana We have cut our GDP growth forecasts for Guyana by 2.7ppts to 22.5% in 2025 and by 2.9ppts to 14.2% in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We forecast Turkmenistan's GDP growth will pick up to 4.1% in 2025, an improvement from recent years. Stabilising natural gas prices and stronger-than-expected population growth will be the main growth drivers next year as the economy strengthens from several years of ... Read More
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