Category: Heavy Industry
Heavy Industry market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany German industry and construction had a better-than-expected start to the year. And while we expect to see some reversal in that strength, the economy is likely to avoid a technical recession, leading us to raise our 2023 GDP forecast to 0.3% growth (up 0. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States Recent stress in the banking system and tighter lending standards will result in a more severe, but still mild, recession in H2 2023 than we previously anticipated. Though banking stress has eased, the economic costs will be incurred with a lag, and ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Crude oil prices surged on news that OPEC+ would cut production by over 1mn b/d beginning in May. The supply response from elsewhere will be limited and not enough to offset the reduction. At the same time, our demand outlook is broadl ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We have raised our 2023 eurozone GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 0.8%. However, we've cut our outlook for 2024 by 0.3ppts to 1% growth as a consequence of the lagged impact from tighter financing conditions. Our base case remains that the eurozone ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana The first quarter has come and gone, and the Ghanaian government failed to present its case to the Executive Board of the IMF. Accra aimed to wrap up bilateral debt restructuring before the end of Q1 to provide the multilateral organisation with the nece ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon We now expect Lebanon's economy to stagnate this year after we cut our GDP forecast by 2ppts. Following a fifth year of economic contraction in 2022, Lebanon appears no closer to a recovery. The latest PMI data signal tentative stabilisation in busine ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The most noteworthy news in this holiday-shortened week in the eurozone was perhaps the lack of any from European banks. Equity markets including bank stocks were stable after last week's rebound. Risk gauges eased, and systemic stress abated. And while financ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria The second leg of Nigeria's general elections took place on March 18, with 28 of the country's 36 states voting for their governor and state representatives. There were reports of violence, voter intimidation, and attacks on polling stations, w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia We have boosted our 2023 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 0.5% as unexpectedly low winter energy import costs, allowing more resilient domestic demand, has averted the risk of further GDP declines. But industrial output is still set to fall sharply due to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq Despite a decrease in oil output in Q1 2023, we've maintained our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%. This is because Iraq is seeking to expand its oil opportunities through offering production and exploration licenses in H2 2023. So far, it's kept its ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The eurozone economy is in a state of high alert, as investors continue to digest the turmoil affecting the banking sector in recent weeks. While risks of systemic contagion still look limited, sentiment indicators are already reflecting the increased concerns abo ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Chemicals
Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Chemicals While energy prices have fallen sharply, we do not expect sectoral production to pick up meaningfully until H2 2024. Even with interest rates likely to fall over the next few months, we expect higher interest rates from previous periods to dampen grow ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Aerospace
Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Aerospace Global aerospace growth remains positive. We forecast a 6.9% expansion in 2024 falling from an impressive 13.1% in 2023. We expect growth in 2024 to be higher in emerging markets than advanced economies, particularly the very impressive double-digit g ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Basic Metals
Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Basic Metals World basic metals production grew by 5.7% in 2023 driven mostly by robust production in India and China, while output contracted in advanced economies. However, we see production easing in both China and India from last year's highs, which wil ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Construction
Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Construction Global construction output is expected to rise 2% in gross value-added terms in 2024, an upward revision of 0.6%, after climbing by 3.7% in 2023. Construction in emerging markets will contribute far less to global growth with India and China foreca ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria
Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria Nigeria has regained the title of 'Africa's largest oil producer' thanks to recovering oil production towards the end of last year. Output rose by 7.0% m/m to an average of 1.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in December due to successful efforts to rep ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone This week's ZEW survey confirms the messages from previous releases – with inflation slowing and an energy crisis a more remote risk, confidence has been improving. Meanwhile, ECB communications remain hawkish, although as its Chief Economist Philip Lane recen ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The "bomb cyclone" that swept across the US this week will only shave at most a few basis points off Q4-22 GDP growth and doesn't necessitate any major changes to our baseline forecast. Some industries will be disrupted, but the shock's short, te ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The Ifo results for Germany and the eurozone consumer confidence survey both followed other indicators higher in December, reinforcing perceptions that sentiment has bottomed out as Q4 progressed. At face value, this also signals some upside risk to our expectatio ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Industrial activity fell 0.7% on the quarter in Q2 2022, and it continued to decline in July. While the supply-side pressures on the economy are be easing, rocketing gas prices are likely to weigh on German industry through the winter. We forecast a 0. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The ECB hiked interest rates by 50bps at its meeting yesterday and announced the start of quantitative tightening from March. Moreover, the ECB sent a very hawkish message by indicating there will be further rates hikes of similar magnitude in the future. We will ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The eurozone economy has shown remarkable resilience so far, but the cracks are starting to appear in the economic data. Falling retail sales and exports in Germany and sharp declines in French consumer sp ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Hard data released this week confirmed that activity in the eurozone held up better than expected in Q3 despite widespread recession fears. The 0.2% GDP expansion shown by preliminary estimates was confirmed, while data for industrial production in September came ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Hard data released this week confirmed that activity in the eurozone held up better than expected in Q3 despite widespread recession fears. The 0.2% GDP expansion shown by preliminary estimates was confirmed, while data for industrial production in September came ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We have lowered our 2023 GDP forecast for Sweden by 0.9ppts to a 0.1% contraction, amid more front-loaded monetary policy tightening and signs of a broad-based weakening in activity. Inflation continues to rise and underlying pressures are intensifying, th ... Read More
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