Category: Heavy Industry
Heavy Industry market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon We have kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Lebanon at 0.8%. The ceasefire deal signed between Israel and Hezbollah at the end of November has de-escalated the regional conflict. However, the truce remains vulnerable to violations, challenging planned i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've maintained our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran at 3.0%. However, we've cut the forecast for FY2025 to 2.3% from 2.5% previously, reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic demand as a result of the newly announced FY2025 budget ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 1.9%. We see risks from the recent political turmoil and will adjust our outlook after the Constitutional Court decides on the impeachment motion. Domestic uncertainty and global trade poli ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates We downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the UAE to 4.2% from 4.5%, reflecting our revised assumption that the reversal of production cuts will be delayed, likely starting in Q3 2025. The adjustment comes amid an oil price dip, fuelled ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The incoming survey data confirms that the eurozone ends 2024 on a weak footing. Despite a small uptick, this week's PMIs showed continued weakness in the eurozone's two largest economies, with manufacturing in deep contraction and services stagnating. The ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.0%, to reflect another extension by OPEC+ of voluntary oil production cuts. The cartel has announced it will delay unwinding cuts until at least the end of Q1, due to concerns over weak demand. We ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru We cut our GDP growth forecast for Peru in 2025 marginally by 0.1ppt to 2.9% due to an upward revision in historical data for this year. We expect the economy slowed in Q4 after a strong recovery in the previous quarters due to intermittent protests in Oc ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again in Q3, this time falling by 1.4% q/q. There is little reason for cheer in most of the recent data: October, the first month of Q4, showed another drop in the industrial production index, bringing levels to jus ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We've kept our near-term GDP forecast for Sweden largely unchanged and expect growth of 2.4% in 2025. We think growth will pick up due to household real income gains, easing fiscal and monetary policies, and better external demand. But we see increased ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya Oil production recovered markedly over the past two months, following disruptions to production in August and September due to political turmoil. A struggle for influence over the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) led to a political crisis in mid-August and a sharp drop ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India Economic growth momentum in India has slowed after a staggering start to 2024, and we expect activity will continue to expand at a softer pace next year. We forecast GDP will grow by 6.4% in 2025, similar to 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts We maintain our call that oil prices will average US$74 per barrel in Q4 and US72-US$73 pb in 2025. Weak oil demand from China remains the key concern as the latest fiscal stimulus announcement failed to reassure markets. As we expecte ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Aerospace
Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Aerospace Global aerospace growth remains positive. We forecast a 2.6% expansion in 2025, off the back of strong growth in 2024. The medium-term forecast will continue to be strong with 3.2% growth in 2026. For 2025 we expect growth to be stable in advanced eco ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Basic Metals
Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Basic Metals We have revised our basic metals production forecast for 2025 to 1.1% due to weaker demand prospects as the US dollar appreciates, trade frictions increase, and China’s economy structurally slows. Most metal markets have been oversupplied this year ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.3% next year, following a 0.9% expansion this year. The impact of tight monetary policy is set to unwind, while strong wage growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. We e ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany We expect overall growth for Germany at 0.6% next year as consumption recovers. But we see downside risks stemming from a more backloaded industry recovery and a weaker labour market. The economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q3 after data revisions. The GDP d ... Read More
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Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Chemicals
Industry - Global Industry Forecasts - Chemicals Our global outlook for the sector remains positive as we expect production to expand 2.9% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026. Gas prices are stabilising and destocking has run its course which is easing pressure off producers. However, we expect trade frictions ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya As 2024 draws to a close, Kenya can reflect on a year filled with many trials and tribulations. The year began apprehensively as the government faced the June 2024 Eurobond repayment. Fortunately, the government partially addressed this challenge by secu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador We revised our growth forecast up by 0.6ppts to 1.8% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 after a null growth in 2024. Private demand is expected to recover from a 1% contraction in 2024 to 1.8% growth in 2025. This rebound is mainly due to base effects, as market ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States We continue to forecast GDP in the US will grow by 2.6% in 2025, following an estimated 2.8% expansion this year. The adjustments we made to our US outlook this month were concentrated in trade and the US dollar because of expectations that imports ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We've kept our eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 1.2%. We continue to expect growth will gradually gain pace to 1.5% in 2026, but we acknowledge that the risks are to the downside. Over the coming quarters, we think the eurozone economy will g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria Real GDP growth surprised to the upside in Q3, supported by a sound performance in Nigeria's services economy. Although the November purchasing managers' index reading points to persistent hardship in the country's private sector, economic ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana We expect broad-based improvements in Ghana’s economy over the medium term. Real GDP growth is projected to average 4.8% p.a. over 2024-2026. Meanwhile, inflation is forecast to ease steadily throughout 2025, dipping below 10.0% y/y by Q1 2026. The count ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana We have cut our GDP growth forecasts for Guyana by 2.7ppts to 22.5% in 2025 and by 2.9ppts to 14.2% in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman We nudged our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Oman down by 0.1ppt, to 2.2%, which is an improvement on the 1.5% expansion we expect this year. Growth continues to be driven by non-energy sectors, after a strong pickup of 4.6% in H1, despite a deeply negative co ... Read More
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