Category: Heavy Industry
Heavy Industry market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
At the margin, it's possible that the UK government's decision to fund higher defence spending through cuts to the foreign aid budget will provide some extra breathing space against its borrowing rule. But if NATO requires members to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP, a bigger rethink of t ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
The rapid thawing of diplomatic ties between Russia and the US triggered a rally in Russian markets, but it’s too early to predict a swift end to the Ukraine war. We bumped up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.1ppt to 1.8%, based on unusually high budgetary spending during the first weeks ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
The US aid freeze, effective from January 25, has disrupted over 60 non-governmental organisations operating in Tanzania's critical sectors such as healthcare and agriculture. The 90-day halt has raised concerns about the long-term repercussions, as many essential services rely heavily on foreig ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
We've trimmed our GDP growth forecasts for Canada by 0.1ppt to 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. New targeted US-Canada 25% tariffs will push prices higher and drag on GDP growth, but the lingering threat of blanket US tariffs risks derailing Canada's economic expansion entirely. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, down from an estimated 2.7% expansion last year. The moderation in the January PMI and capacity utilisation rates suggests industry is not out of the woods despite a surge in output in December 2024. We don't think ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We forecast India's real GDP will grow by 6.5% in 2025, following an estimated 6.4% expansion last year. In fiscal year terms, we expect 6.4% growth in FY2025/2026 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Economic growth surpassed our expectations in 2024, but we still anticipate the Angolan economy to cool in 2025 due to a slower expansion in the oil sector. Elevated inflation, fiscal consolidation efforts, and continued dry weather conditions thwart the potential for higher real GDP growth. We fore ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We've lowered our near-term GDP growth forecasts for Sweden by 0.2ppts to 2.2% in 2025 and by 0.3ppts to 2.2% in 2026. We now expect an across-the-board tariff of 10% to be applied on the EU by the US, which will dampen exports and investment. Meanwhile, higher inflation and uncertainty will neg ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia's economic growth slowed at the back end of last year because of cuts in diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
We think growth this year will likely fall back to a more moderate pace, after GDP growth in 2024 had likely continued the quick 3% pace from 2023. Long-term growth will stay weak due to sanctions and soft consumer demand from the country's main trading partner, China. The surge in ammunition an ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.4ppts to 2.3%. While we estimate a modest pick-up in activity in the final quarter of 2024 ended the year-long recession, the momentum at the turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the abo ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Growth in the non-oil economy had strong momentum heading into 2025, with Abu Dhabi’s Q3 2024 data pointing to a robust non-oil expansion. December's PMI climbed to 55.4 from 54.2 in November, the sharpest rise in new orders in nine months. We see this momentum carrying forward with 4.8% non-oil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
We've downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.3ppts to 1.6% y/y. Growth momentum in Q4 2024 stayed soft at 0.1% q/q sa, and consumption is set to recover more gradually than we had anticipated. Loan growth slowed down to a nine-month low in December, too. That said, last mon ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We forecast Oman's GDP growth at 2.2% for this year, higher than the 1.5% estimate for 2024. In our 2025 growth outlook, we balance the delayed return to growth in the energy sector with a steady expansion of non-energy output, which we project at 3.0% (up from 2.8% previously). We think activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Croatia 0.8ppts to 2.6%. Sizeable historical revisions suggest that the economy was aggressively destocking last year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
We forecast the Kenyan economy to expand by 4.8% in 2025 due to a recovery in the industrial sector and sustained growth in the services sector. Key downside risks to our outlook include fiscal slippages, climate shocks, and delays in investment plans, notably from the US and UAE. Last year, the US ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
The economy is doing well, but it will remain a bifurcated one. We forecast real GDP in the US will increase by 2.6% this year and 2.7% in 2026, which we think is around the economy’s short-run potential growth rate. We've raised our projection for real consumer spending growth for this year by ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We lowered our eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.1ppt to 1.1%. We expect GDP growth will gradually gain pace over the course of this year and expand by 1.5% in 2026. Risks for the eurozone are on the downside due to domestic and international factors. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
We are cautiously optimistic that Nigeria will enjoy a more favourable macroeconomic climate this year. Real GDP growth is projected to increase marginally to 3.1% this year from an estimated 3.0% in 2024 while remaining relatively flat over the medium term. The non-oil economy will be a growth driv ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s economy delivered a strong performance over the first three quarters of last year, expanding by 6.3% on a cumulative basis. Rising gold and oil production bolstered industrial activity over this period, while the ICT and financial sectors ensured robust growth in the services sector. The agr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
We forecast GDP growth for Estonia at 2.5% for 2025. We see signs of a recovery this year, but without a swift domestic turnaround it will be weak initially. Estonia's GDP growth was positive again in Q3 2024, but was close to stagnation at 0.03%. This lack of momentum bodes poorly for growth pr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon We have kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Lebanon at 0.8%. The ceasefire deal signed between Israel and Hezbollah at the end of November has de-escalated the regional conflict. However, the truce remains vulnerable to violations, challenging planned i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've maintained our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran at 3.0%. However, we've cut the forecast for FY2025 to 2.3% from 2.5% previously, reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic demand as a result of the newly announced FY2025 budget ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.0%, to reflect another extension by OPEC+ of voluntary oil production cuts. The cartel has announced it will delay unwinding cuts until at least the end of Q1, due to concerns over weak demand. We ... Read More
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