Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia We've cut our 2023 GDP forecast by 0.5ppts to 2.1% for Bolivia. Last year's sources of growth are fading as it was backed by new public investment projects and a surge in hydrocarbon's exports to Argentina. Additionally, private consumption ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Once pent-up demand from post-lockdown fades, we think that Asian economies will settle at lower GDP growth and higher inflation than our pre-pandemic forecasts. This means nominal interest rates are also likely to stay high in 2023-2024. ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan We have slightly downgraded our forecast for GDP growth from 2.5% to 2.3% for 2023. The country has made solid progress in implementing the structural reforms suggested by the IMF. Activity has increased via higher tourism and exports revenues carried over ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay We've cut our Uruguay 2023 GDP forecast to 0.7% from 1.8%, mainly due to carryover from the sharp contraction at the end of last year. Hurt by the ongoing drought, primary activity plunged to -21.5% y/y in Q4 2022, tipping the economy into a techni ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The BoE raised Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.25% this week. With so much monetary tightening already in the system, but still to feed through into activity or inflation, we think Bank Rate has now peaked. However, the risk of a May rate hike has risen. ... Read More
-
Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria
Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria Nigeria has regained the title of 'Africa's largest oil producer' thanks to recovering oil production towards the end of last year. Output rose by 7.0% m/m to an average of 1.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in December due to successful efforts to rep ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Fixed investment related to phase II of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project is forecast to counterweigh weak household expenditure and substantial external trade pressures this year. Nevertheless, our baseline scenario foresees the expansion in national output softening t ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The December employment report didn't paint a picture of Goldilocks labor market, but the modest slowdown in job growth and easing of wage pressures was surely welcomed by the Fed. The report won't keep the Fed from raising rates by 25bps at its upcoming meeting ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled three economic pledges this week. An odd collection ranged from the relatively easy to achieve to being so vague that success will be difficult to judge objectively. It's hard to argue the pledges are economically m ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US It has been a strong start to the new year for Treasuries, with 7 and 10-year yields down more than 30bps on the week as of early Friday afternoon, leading the gains. Declining inflation expectations offered support to the long-end, flattening the curve for mu ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Although China's sooner-than-expected reopening has led some to pencil in a more robust rebound in 2023, we remain cautious given that the authorities may amplified the disruptions associated with reopening. ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The "bomb cyclone" that swept across the US this week will only shave at most a few basis points off Q4-22 GDP growth and doesn't necessitate any major changes to our baseline forecast. Some industries will be disrupted, but the shock's short, temporar ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We expect Central and Eastern Europe will start 2023 in a synchronised economic downturn, in concert with the rest of the EU. While the region should emerge from recession in Q2, the recovery will be uneven across the four economies. ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US We now see Slovenia's GDP growing 1% in 2023, down 0.3ppts from previously, as headwinds to growth mount. Q3 GDP fell 1.4% q/q, due to negative change in inventories, while all other components held up. That said, we see the weakness becoming more broad-based, with ... Read More
-
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States US industrial growth has slowed in the face of high inflation, slowing export growth, declining inventories, and shifting consumer preferences towards services. Q2 GDP fell by -0.6%%, dragged by declining residential investment, declining constru ... Read More
-
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom Industrial production had been broadly flat since late-2020, and it remains 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak in March 2019. Overall, industrial production is expected to expand 2% in 2022 before slowing to 0.6% in 2023. ... Read More
-
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy Industrial production grew 1.2% in Q2 2022, it but ended the quarter with a large ontraction in June. Growth resumed in July, but it remains below its average in Q2. ... Read More
-
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone Whilst European gas prices have fallen from the August peak and supply chain bottlenecks have seen improvements in recent months, we forecast that a eurozone industrial recession is currently underway, with industrial production output contractions fo ... Read More
-
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China China: We have again cut our 2022 growth forecast in China— a mildly stronger-than-expected Q3 was overshadowed by the Q4 surge in Covid cases and lockdown restrictions, which is expected to lead to a very weak quarter. ... Read More
-
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan Industrial production is expected to stagnate in 2022 before picking up to 3.4% in 2023. Pandemic restrictions have mostly been removed, underpinning an improvement in domestic demand in Q2. Lockdowns in China dragged down exports, although exports to Ch ... Read More
-
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Industrial activity fell 0.7% on the quarter in Q2 2022, and it continued to decline in July. While the supply-side pressures on the economy are be easing, rocketing gas prices are likely to weigh on German industry through the winter. We forecast a 0. ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were lower this past week, and the curve was steeper. The 3-year yield was more than 20bps lower as of early Friday afternoon, leading the gains as the reaction to the week's lower-than-expected inflation data outweighed the hawkish tone ou ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Fed told us this week that, while it slowed the pace of rate hikes, it will continue to raise rates until it is confident inflation is returning to its 2% target. Though the Fed is still aiming for a soft landing, their projections tell a different story. In fact, t ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets In a tough global environment, we expect our below consensus call on advanced economy growth will push growth in emerging markets (EMs) well below trend, however we expect them to outperform AEs and that EM fixed income assets will do well as inflation dec ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The week's data offered further evidence that the UK economy is drifting into recession, with the impact of very high inflation on household spending power the key cause. But there are now signs that soft demand is beginning to weigh on firms' pricin ... Read More
Research Assistance
