Category: Banking & Financial Services
Banking & Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We project the distribution of long-term economic pain inflicted by Covid will be similar to humans in the sense that those with pre-existing conditions will end up suffering the most. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Changes to the measurement of UK jobs numbers have made reading the economy harder. New experimental data from the ONS suggest the labour market did not weaken as much over the summer as previously thought. But with like-for-like comparisons with earlier per ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though output was boosted in August by less disruption from public sector strikes, UK GDP is on course to be flat or, more likely, fall slightly in Q3. The bigger picture is that the brief rebound in activity that we saw at the start of the year has since pe ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The economy has been resilient in 2023, but we expect growth to lose momentum in the year's closing quarter as higher interest rates and tighter lending conditions weigh on activity. Impacts of a possible government shutdown and a prolonged United Auto Workers strik ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Large revisions to national accounts data suggest that the UK's post-pandemic recovery was better than previously thought, with a much stronger contribution from the services sector. An upgrade to Q1 2023 is likely to mean that we nudge up our forecast f ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan We have revised our GDP growth forecast for Pakistan next year down to just 0.6% as the ongoing crisis takes a toll on the economy. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The latest UK economic data present the MPC with a quandary in advance of next week's interest rate decision. The previous resilience of the labour market appears to be steadily eroding and there's been more evidence of waning economic momentum. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom This week's business surveys suggest that the UK economy is continuing to lose momentum, with the composite PMI's sharp fall into contractionary territory particularly concerning. Though there's a good chance that GDP will still increase in Q3 du ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Argentina's leading presidential candidate Javier Milei wants to dollarize to fight inflation. But we think adopting the dollar would likely push Argentina straight into a default. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were mixed this week as the curve flattened, pivoting around the seven- to 10-year sector. The two-year yield was more than 11bps higher as of mid-Friday afternoon, and the 30-year bond yield was 10bps lower, resulting in the largest weekly cur ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Fed Chair Jerome Powell deliberately avoided breaking much new ground in his Jackson Hole speech this week, but he suggested that the Fed would need to see above-trend GDP growth or labor markets no longer cooling to justify additional rate hikes. Our view is that the e ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The new data on inflation will not change the Fed’s immediate plan or its communication strategy as it will continue to signal that it has not won the inflation battle yet. The Fed will strike a hawkish tone because it wants to prevent ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields finished the week several bps higher, with the front- and intermediate sector seeing the largest back-up in rates. The 2s10s curve was little changed on the week, but a spike in five-year note yields pushed the 5s30s spread back into inversion ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We have cut our aggregate 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) by 0.1ppt to 3.9%, following a series of upgrades in recent months. This mainly reflects a downgrade to our outlook for China, which offset several improvements elsewhere. That s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Rwanda
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Rwanda The Rwandan economy performed slightly weaker than anticipated in Q1 2023. This year we expect a tightening in purse strings, both by households and the government, as the substantial rise in prices and higher borrowing costs permeate the economy. In ad ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Economic 'decoupling' of China from the west is starting to gather pace. Decoupling is yet to become globally widespread on the trade side but is increasingly evident in relations with the US. FDI trends and surveys of Western firms ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom This week's UK business surveys suggested that activity is beginning to falter across a range of sectors. Though GDP will be boosted in Q3 by the reversal of recent idiosyncratic drags, the surveys raise the risk that the rise in output could underwhelm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US While the large base effects that helped pull down headline CPI inflation to 3% in June are behind us, a downshift in shelter inflation, falling auto prices, and a gradual easing in wage growth should mean better news for core inflation through the second half of the ye ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We have raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for EMs by 0.1ppt to 4% to reflect ongoing resilience in activity, particularly in Latin America. That said, survey-based indicators show economic momentum is weakening and we think EM growth will slow in the com ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The labor market remains exceptionally tight. Nonfarm payroll growth downshifted in June but held above its average pre-pandemic pace. The unemployment rate inched down to a historically low level and wage growth was stubbornly elevated. We expect more job gains in Q3 b ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK financial conditions have continued to tighten, with market pricing now implying that Bank Rate will peak at 6.5%. Though this will probably prove a bit too aggressive, with incoming data continuing to suggest that wage growth is very strong, a lengthy pe ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were higher this week, led by 20bps increases in seven- and 10-year yields as of early Friday afternoon. Bearish technicals, asset manager positioning, and rising Fed rate hike expectations pushed rates higher overall. The curve steepened, thou ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Barbados
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Barbados We think the Barbados economy will expand by 4.8% this year, following 9.1% growth in 2022. GDP will likely return to its pre-pandemic level by Q4 2023, driven by a solid but slow tourism recovery. We forecast tourist arrivals will grow by 27% in 2023 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia We now forecast North Macedonia's GDP will grow by just 1.3% in 2023. Economic activity is being held back by the sharp rise in interest rates and slower export growth. But the resilience of investment, which supported growth of 2.2% in 2022, wil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei After contracting 1.6% in 2022, Brunei's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 due to higher investment spending, bringing GDP back to its pre-pandemic level. Investment will focus on the expansion of petrochemical plants, r ... Read More
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