Category: Energy & Resources
Energy & Resources market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei After contracting 1.6% in 2022, Brunei's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 due to higher investment spending, bringing GDP back to its pre-pandemic level. Investment will focus on the expansion of petrochemical plants, r ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India We maintain our below-consensus forecast for Indian economic growth of 4.8% in 2023. But we have revised our 2024 outlook down, to 6.3%, due to recent banking sector turmoil and the uncertainty that will have a lagged impact on the global economy. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany German industry and construction had a better-than-expected start to the year. And while we expect to see some reversal in that strength, the economy is likely to avoid a technical recession, leading us to raise our 2023 GDP forecast to 0.3% growth (up 0. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States Recent stress in the banking system and tighter lending standards will result in a more severe, but still mild, recession in H2 2023 than we previously anticipated. Though banking stress has eased, the economic costs will be incurred with a lag, and ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Crude oil prices surged on news that OPEC+ would cut production by over 1mn b/d beginning in May. The supply response from elsewhere will be limited and not enough to offset the reduction. At the same time, our demand outlook is broadl ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We have raised our 2023 eurozone GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 0.8%. However, we've cut our outlook for 2024 by 0.3ppts to 1% growth as a consequence of the lagged impact from tighter financing conditions. Our base case remains that the eurozone ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana The first quarter has come and gone, and the Ghanaian government failed to present its case to the Executive Board of the IMF. Accra aimed to wrap up bilateral debt restructuring before the end of Q1 to provide the multilateral organisation with the nece ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria The second leg of Nigeria's general elections took place on March 18, with 28 of the country's 36 states voting for their governor and state representatives. There were reports of violence, voter intimidation, and attacks on polling stations, w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia We have boosted our 2023 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 0.5% as unexpectedly low winter energy import costs, allowing more resilient domestic demand, has averted the risk of further GDP declines. But industrial output is still set to fall sharply due to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq Despite a decrease in oil output in Q1 2023, we've maintained our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%. This is because Iraq is seeking to expand its oil opportunities through offering production and exploration licenses in H2 2023. So far, it's kept its ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria
Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria Nigeria has regained the title of 'Africa's largest oil producer' thanks to recovering oil production towards the end of last year. Output rose by 7.0% m/m to an average of 1.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in December due to successful efforts to rep ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Industrial activity fell 0.7% on the quarter in Q2 2022, and it continued to decline in July. While the supply-side pressures on the economy are be easing, rocketing gas prices are likely to weigh on German industry through the winter. We forecast a 0. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We have lowered our 2023 GDP forecast for Sweden by 0.9ppts to a 0.1% contraction, amid more front-loaded monetary policy tightening and signs of a broad-based weakening in activity. Inflation continues to rise and underlying pressures are intensifying, th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Peru
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Peru We downgraded our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Peru by 0.5ppt to 2.2% as less expansive fiscal policies and higher interest rates will slow the economy. While GDP grew by a decent 0.9% q/q in Q1, prospects for Q2 were cut to -0.8% q/q due to social unrest in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore Singapore started the year on a strong note as a rebound in household spending lifted the final Q1 GDP, supporting our view of the reopening boosting the domestic recovery. But with another upward revision to our global oil price and inflation forecasts ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine
Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine Following a contraction by about 45% in March, the economy started to adjust in April, judging from high-frequency alternative sources of data. But this adjustment appears to have plateaued in May, as broken supply chains, destroyed infrastructure, displaced pop ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia sent a sizeable delegation of senior ministers to Davos, where it was praised by the World Economic Forum's president for its recent reform agenda. At the meeting, Saudi min ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A £15bn package of fiscal aid to households will ease, if not eliminate, cost of living pressures. It’s still unclear what effect a more generous bills rebate will have on official inflation, but the targeted nature of the new support means any indirect ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands The Dutch economy started 2022 a bit weaker than we expected, with GDP stagnating in Q1. As a result of this and the renewed supply-chain disruptions from the lockdowns in China, we have lowered our GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt this year to 3.1%, but ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guyana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guyana We expect new oil discoveries will continue to drive Guyana's economic expansion and forecast GDP to grow by 48.7% in 2022 following a 19.9% rise in 2021. ExxonMobil, the largest operator in offshore Guyana, made three new oil discoveries this month ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates The UAE began a 40-day mourning period last week following the death of its president, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan, who was instrumental in the economic transformation of the UAE. His successor, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, has ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom We've become gloomier about UK growth prospects, leading us to cut our forecasts for 2022 and 2023 GDP growth by 0.2ppts each to 3.6% and 1.4%, respectively. While inflation has probably peaked, renewed supply-chain disruptions and a weaker pou ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania Flash estimates indicated Romania's Q1 2022 GDP grew 5.2% q/q, significantly better than expected. However, high-frequency data do not point to a sharp acceleration in GDP growth, with industry advancing only 2.5% q/q and retail sales growing by 0.8%. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland Irish inflation reached heights not seen in decades, as consumer prices rose 7% in April. But despite the resulting squeeze on consumers' spending power and another sharp drop in sentiment, survey data and other evidence point to an economy that is be ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria While Nigeria is one of the few countries that is expected to financially benefit from the war between Russia and Ukraine, it has not come off scot-free from the conflict. Higher fuel prices are pressuring households, prompting the government to redire ... Read More
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