Category: Business Services & Administration
Business Services & Administration market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina are unchanged at a below-consensus 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The strong recovery in Q3 2024 and resilience in Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
After a poor performance in the first half of last year, Botswana’s diamond industry continued to disappoint in Q3 2024, declining by 14.8% q/q. Although De Beers' latest production report indicates that Botswana’s diamond output rose in the final quarter of 2024, the production guidance for 202 ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
Our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina are unchanged at a below-consensus 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The strong recovery in Q3 2024 and resilience in Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cameroon
The government's budgeted spending plans for the current fiscal year (FY, January to December 2025) are conservative. Yet, as is usually the case, we expect a supplementary budget to lift these spending targets halfway through the year. The budget also plans to reduce subsidies. While this is so ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
We forecast Malawi's real GDP growth to recover to 2.6% this year from 1.7% in 2024. The improved forecast is based on an improved outlook for rainfall compared with last year's severe drought and the expected reopening of a uranium mine in September. However, the economy continues to be pla ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Preliminary Q4 estimates show Saudi GDP aligning with our expectations of 4.4% y/y growth, an increase from 3% in the previous quarter. This brings overall 2024 growth to 1.4%, in line with our projections. The non-oil sector continues to strengthen due to diversification efforts, as reflected in a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia's economic growth slowed at the back end of last year because of cuts in diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
We think growth this year will likely fall back to a more moderate pace, after GDP growth in 2024 had likely continued the quick 3% pace from 2023. Long-term growth will stay weak due to sanctions and soft consumer demand from the country's main trading partner, China. The surge in ammunition an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Lesotho's economy recovered in Q3 2024, expanding by 3.6% y/y compared with 0.7% y/y in the previous quarter. The services and industrial sectors posted notable growth, especially in retail, construction, and water & electricity subsectors. We expect economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
We now expect the Israel-Hamas war will likely end in Q1 as the ceasefire came into effect at the start of this year. So, we've upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Israel to 3.6%. We think the recovery in investment as the risk premium falls, and the return to full-time employment for rese ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.4ppts to 2.3%. While we estimate a modest pick-up in activity in the final quarter of 2024 ended the year-long recession, the momentum at the turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the abo ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Growth in the non-oil economy had strong momentum heading into 2025, with Abu Dhabi’s Q3 2024 data pointing to a robust non-oil expansion. December's PMI climbed to 55.4 from 54.2 in November, the sharpest rise in new orders in nine months. We see this momentum carrying forward with 4.8% non-oil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
We've downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.3ppts to 1.6% y/y. Growth momentum in Q4 2024 stayed soft at 0.1% q/q sa, and consumption is set to recover more gradually than we had anticipated. Loan growth slowed down to a nine-month low in December, too. That said, last mon ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Vietnam
We expect Vietnam's GDP will grow by 6.9% this year, following a 7.1% expansion in 2024. Manufacturing exports will continue to be the main engine of growth this year, particularly electronics exports. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We forecast Oman's GDP growth at 2.2% for this year, higher than the 1.5% estimate for 2024. In our 2025 growth outlook, we balance the delayed return to growth in the energy sector with a steady expansion of non-energy output, which we project at 3.0% (up from 2.8% previously). We think activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Croatia 0.8ppts to 2.6%. Sizeable historical revisions suggest that the economy was aggressively destocking last year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP g ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
Economic growth in Rwanda will likely lose momentum this year following a surprisingly better performance in 2024. We forecast real GDP to grow by 7.2% in 2025, following an estimated expansion of 8.7% last year. Below-average rainfall is predicted over H1 2025, which could diminish crop harvests wi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
We've revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Austria to 0.5% from 0.9% following still inauspicious sentiment data and lacklustre economic activity from end-2024. This indicates no impending turnaround. Industrial production remains dismal and we don't expect an imminent pickup in activity ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
Our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Bulgaria remains solid at 2.9% – just shy of the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic average of 3.1%. This follows an estimated 2.3% expansion in 2024. The approval of a new coalition government on January 16 put an end to the political stalemate since the snap elections last Oct ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
We continue to forecast France's GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2025, a slowdown from the estimated 1.1% expansion in 2024. GDP growth is expected to have been broadly flat during Q4 2024 and will take time to gain pace in 2025 given that sentiment remains subdued, making up for a weak start of the ye ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Global EM
November activity data indicated economic activity in Brazil slowed significantly at the end of 2024, reinforcing our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 1.8% for 2025. Monthly contractions in hard data indicators such as real retail sales, services revenue volumes, and industrial production sugg ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
We forecast Ireland's GDP will grow by 4.0% this year and 3.5% in 2026, after contracting by 0.2% in 2024. Irish GDP rebounded by 3.5% q/q in Q3. We think this is the start of a recovery after five declines in the previous six quarters. But this isn't guaranteed given persistent data distort ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Economic conditions are mixed and modest positive momentum remains the order of the day. We have left South Africa's 2025 real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 1.5%, more than double the 2024 estimate of 0.7%. ... Read More
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