Category: Business Services & Administration
Business Services & Administration market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh
We have cut our real GDP growth forecast for Bangladesh to 4.2% during FY2024/25 (ending in June 2025), down from 5.5% previously. This is the same pace as last year, as revised data for FY2023/24 show the economy only expanded by 4.2%. The new fiscal year has started on a much weaker footing due to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe’s economy is expected to accelerate this year after the marked slowdown in 2024. Our economic growth forecast of 2.8% this year is below consensus, as we think last year's drought will continue to stifle electricity generation. Meanwhile, the ZiG has stabilised somewhat after last year’ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia
The rapid thawing of diplomatic ties between Russia and the US triggered a rally in Russian markets, but it’s too early to predict a swift end to the Ukraine war. We bumped up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.1ppt to 1.8%, based on unusually high budgetary spending during the first weeks ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
The sharp activity contraction in December 2024 forced us to pull our expectations of an economic slowdown forward and cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Brazil by 0.6ppts to 1.2%. A smaller carryover from 2024, a much tighter monetary policy stance, and the beginning of a deterioration in labour ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Oil prices have fallen back after the price rally in January as markets adjust to a weaker global demand outlook prompted by the Trump administration's tariff announcements on US imports. Our price forecast now incorporates a short-term constriction on Russian oil from US sanctions on Russia' ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
We continue to expect Indonesia's GDP growth rate will remain stable at 5% this year and in 2026, following the same readings in 2024. Economics activity will be supported by more accommodative monetary policy and inflation that is likely to be within the central bank's target range this yea ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
We've nudged down our UK GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 1% in 2025 and by 0.2ppts to 1.5% in 2026. Our updates reflect the indirect impacts of recent US political developments, which are likely to damage business confidence, reduce global trade, and result in tighter financial conditions. Mor ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tanzania
The US aid freeze, effective from January 25, has disrupted over 60 non-governmental organisations operating in Tanzania's critical sectors such as healthcare and agriculture. The 90-day halt has raised concerns about the long-term repercussions, as many essential services rely heavily on foreig ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.1ppt to 3.2%. Our 2026 call saw a stronger 0.4ppt cut to 3.4%. The economy ended last year on a strong note as the flash estimate for Q4 indicated growth at 1.3% q/q. While we expect the solid performance to continue, weak foreign demand and high i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.4% this year, and 0.9% next. The impact of tight monetary policy is set to unwind, while strong wage growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflatio ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
The Philippines' economy is expected to gain some momentum after lower-than-expected growth of 5.6% in 2024. Private consumption continues to be a main driver, supported by likely robust growth in remittances, despite concerns over the job market and the income outlook. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Costa Rica
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Costa Rica by 0.4ppts to 3.6%. We expect private consumption will slow down due to the return of inflation to the lower bound of the central bank's target range, higher unemployment, and lower consumer confidence. Rate cuts in 2024 should support ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
We've trimmed our GDP growth forecasts for Canada by 0.1ppt to 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. New targeted US-Canada 25% tariffs will push prices higher and drag on GDP growth, but the lingering threat of blanket US tariffs risks derailing Canada's economic expansion entirely. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Germany by 0.3ppts to 0.1% in 2025 and by 0.4ppts to 0.8% in 2026. US tariffs and the EU's response will lower foreign demand, raise uncertainty, and make inflation stickier, which will further delay the industrial recovery, undermine corporate capex, a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
We expect much of the Ivorian economy’s momentum to persist throughout 2025 due to robust secondary and tertiary sector activity. Increased oil and gas output and strong gold production will support industry growth this year. Concurrently, sustained expansions in trade and the financial and ICT indu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
We have lowered our near-term forecast for Finland as we now expect reciprocal across-the-board 10% tariffs on EU-US trade from Q2 this year. This will dampen exports and investment, while higher inflation will negatively affect real income growth. Unemployment is also set to decline at a slower pac ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Monetary authorities surprised with a 50-bps interest rate increase during its first meeting of the year. Committee members stated that central banks around the world are following divergent stances based on their own inflation and economic growth outlooks while flagging that the US Fed has followed ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, down from an estimated 2.7% expansion last year. The moderation in the January PMI and capacity utilisation rates suggests industry is not out of the woods despite a surge in output in December 2024. We don't think ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Hungary by 0.2ppts to 1.5% this year and by 0.4ppts in 2026 to 3.2%. The downward revisions for this year reflect poor high-frequency readings for December, indicating the economy entered 2025 on a soft footing. The cut to the 2026 forecast is a consequ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mauritius
Monetary authorities surprised with a 50-bps interest rate increase during its first meeting of the year. Committee members stated that central banks around the world are following divergent stances based on their own inflation and economic growth outlooks while flagging that the US Fed has followed ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
Economic growth surpassed our expectations in 2024, but we still anticipate the Angolan economy to cool in 2025 due to a slower expansion in the oil sector. Elevated inflation, fiscal consolidation efforts, and continued dry weather conditions thwart the potential for higher real GDP growth. We fore ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We have cut our GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.6%, due to a highly uncertain backdrop amid a potential trade war under Trump’s second term. Even though the direct impact of US tariffs should be relatively small, we consider that secondary effects such as lower global trade and less business con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Ethiopia has maintained its fiscal consolidation and policy reform path, performing well in terms of meeting its IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) targets in H2 2024. The ECF disbursals and World Bank facilities alleviated acute FX pressures in 2024, while strong coffee export receipts provided fur ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
We've lowered our near-term GDP growth forecasts for Sweden by 0.2ppts to 2.2% in 2025 and by 0.3ppts to 2.2% in 2026. We now expect an across-the-board tariff of 10% to be applied on the EU by the US, which will dampen exports and investment. Meanwhile, higher inflation and uncertainty will neg ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
We forecast the Belgian economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 1.6% next, as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflationa ... Read More
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