Category: Business Services & Administration
Business Services & Administration market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US There are signs that the 8.5 percent inflation rate in March marks the peak of the inflation cycle. A lot depends on oil and food prices, which are held hostage by the war in Ukraine, as well as spreading Covid lockdowns in China, which may prolong supply-chai ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa Stagflation risks in South Africa have risen with real GDP forecast to grow at a slower rate of 1.6%, while average inflation is expected to increase to 5.6% in 2022. That said, low growth and high inflation have been key features of the economy even before ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - Canada
Analysis by Region - North America - Canada While the Canadian economy proved resilient in Q1 2022 amid Omicron and tighter restrictions, a more hawkish Bank of Canada, spill over effects from the Russia-Ukraine war, and a correction in house prices are expected to slow growth later in the year and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Covid restrictions will weigh on Chinese household consumption and industrial production at least through April and into May. This could have a significant impact on global supply chains. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Incumbent president Emmanuel Macron will face Marine Le Pen in the second round of French elections at the end of this month. The results of the first round show the unprecedented fragmentation of public opinion amid a clear rise of the extremes on the far right a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria Geopolitical tensions, in tandem with worsening inflation following sanctions on Russia, have clouded Austria's outlook. Supply chain disruptions were just beginning to recover prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but headwinds are now intensifyi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone The conflict in Ukraine is having an acute impact on the eurozone. Our projections see a combination of higher-for-longer inflation and lower growth, mainly via more subdued consumption and industrial activity. We project eurozone GDP will grow by 2.8% i ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Chile
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Chile We have lowered our 2022 GDP forecast to 1%, from 2%, to reflect a larger impact of policy tightening on short-run growth and weaker supply-side fundamentals (resulting in the lowering of our potential output estimate to 2.3% pa, from 2.5%). ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico While data may point to a slightly stronger-than-expected expansion in Q1, soaring inflation, tighter financial conditions and slower global growth due to the war in Ukraine are weighing on Mexico's outlook. We have shaved our 2022 GDP growth forecast ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America
Analysis by Region - North America We expect GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1, though the underwhelming performance reflects a slower inventory build and weaker exports. While we believe the economy will prove resilient to rising headwinds from higher inflation and a more aggressive Fed tightening cy ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Ecuador
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Ecuador Despite a 4.2% expansion in GDP in 2021 backed by robust consumption, Ecuador's economy continues to struggle to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Persistent rifts between Congress and the executive branch have put President Lasso’s reform agenda at ris ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Our 2022 outlook for emerging markets (EMs) has been cut further to reflect deep recessions in Russia and Ukraine and increased headwinds elsewhere. Our 2022 GDP growth forecast now stands at 3.7%, 0.9ppts below our baseline before Russia's invasion of ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A strong performance from March's services and construction PMIs offered some indication that the economy carried a degree of momentum at the end of Q1, despite intensifying cost of living pressures. But firms have become much gloomier about the future. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The minutes from the Fed's March policy meeting underscored that policymakers intend to "move the stance of monetary policy towards a neutral posture expeditiously" in order to tackle hot inflation and assuage fears that it is behind the curve. We look for a 5 ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone When France' first round of presidential elections takes place this Sunday, it will be a reflection of the economic consequences that the war in Ukraine has had and the reversal in the polls the conflict has caused. While President E. Macron remains the favourite, ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets An unexpected lockdown in Shanghai, China's financial and trade hub, has raised concerns over China's economic and supply chain prospects. The lockdowns in Shenzhen in mid-March and now in Shanghai show the challenge to the government in maintaining a zero ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom An upward revision to the estimate for Q4 2021 took the quarterly UK GDP series to within a whisker of its pre-pandemic level. But the expenditure breakdown suggests the recovery has been very uneven and heavily reliant on the public sector. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We expect domestic demand to be a key driver of economic growth over 2022-2023 as activities normalise and labour market conditions improve following the end of most coronavirus pandemic-related restrictions. That said, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created n ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US In their public remarks since last month's FOMC meeting, Fed officials have only become more hawkish. We now look for the Fed to accelerate the pace of rate hikes and to raise the federal funds rate by 50bps each in May and June. We expect a cumulative rate hike of 200b ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Survey data this week offer a glimpse into the European economy's post-invasion reality. The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) reading for the eurozone fell to a 12-month low, driven by dips in consumer confidence and industrial sector sentiment. Moreover, the fi ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China China’s GDP growth is forecast ease to 4.9% in 2022 but pick up to 5.4% in 2023. To achieve this gain, we expect meaningful and front-loaded policy support from the government, which has emphasized tax cuts and unemployment benefits and has sped up the a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We have raised our estimate of 2021 GDP growth for Jordan to 2.0% up from 1.8% previously due to stronger-than-expected growth continuing into Q3. But our forecast for 2022 has been cut to 1.9% from 2.4% as surging oil prices and higher inflation will weigh on domestic dema ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom Industrial production had been increasing slowly but steadily since last October thanks to easing supply chain pressures, but remains about 2% below pre-pandemic levels. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland We have cut our near-term GDP growth forecast for Poland as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has hit trade through sanctions and investment sentiment via elevated uncertainty. In addition, higher energy commodity prices will keep inflation elevated for lon ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt The Russia-Ukraine war threatens the Egyptian economy through food shortages and soaring commodity prices. Rising global prices for essential goods such as fuel and food will filter through to consumer price inflation. Furthermore, an exodus of dollars amid shifti ... Read More
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