Category: International Trade
Asia International Trade
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
... of growth. But we have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppt to 4.4% following downgrades to our China GDP forecast, as lockdowns are adding pressure to strained global supply chains, notably in Thailand's ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia
... domestic demand. Boosted by stronger tourism following the reopening of borders on 1 April, we expect services to offset a moderation in manufacturing and exports growth, due to the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
... inflationary pressures, less accommodative monetary conditions, and the significant deterioration in China's economic outlook. In addition to worsening global stagflationary stresses, China's lockdowns will likely have a direct negative impact on India's manufacturing given that ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR
... worse-than-expected GDP contraction of 3% q/q in Q1 and the downgrade to our China GDP growth forecast. But we expect stronger growth of 4.6% in 2023, as the city reopens and the domestic environment improves. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
... 0.3ppts to 2.5% in 2022 and 0.4ppts to 2.4% in 2023. These downward revisions reflect downgrades in our China GDP growth forecasts, worsening of global supply-chain disruptions, and impact on domestic demand of higher-than-expected inflation. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Turkey
... the steepest fall in real incomes since 2009, which, coupled with deteriorating sentiment, will increasingly weigh on domestic demand. Meanwhile, the positive contribution from net exports is set to moderate, despite still resilient export performance. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
... this year and next, even though we expect higher inflation and business costs to dampen the recovery somewhat. The recovery in tourism over the next two years will further boost growth. However, the downside risks ... Read More
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The Future of Emerging Asia
... has slowed down as the economies transform and mature. By 2040, emerging Asia will account for almost a third of global GDP and more than a quarter of consumer spending, highlighting huge opportunities for business ... Read More
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World Textile and Apparel Trade and Production Trends: South-East Asia, May 2022
... Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. The report includes information on: clothing retail sales; exports by product type and destination; and production. Also, it provides analyses of developments in the South-East Asia region and ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines
... which will worsen supply chain disruptions. This will further dampen foreign trade prospects amid the ongoing fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war. Partly offsetting the more cautious outlook for trade is the recovery in domestic demand. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
... increased by 3.06% y/y in Q1 2022, bolstered by growth in gross capital formation and exports. We maintain a relatively conservative outlook and see GDP growing 2.7% in 2022 given that downside risks are considerable. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia
... in Q1, this mainly reflects buoyant growth in January-February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having already banned coal imports, the EU is currently considering further sanctions to restrict oil and gas imports from Russia, which ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
... a weaker-than-thought Q1, higher commodity prices, and a poorer yen projection for the rest of the year. Higher import prices will dampen the real earnings of households and corporates by deteriorating the terms of trade. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia
... Covid lockdowns in China. We still expect the end of coronavirus pandemic-related restrictions, the reopening of borders, and fiscal stimulus will underpin a strong recovery in domestic demand. As the gap between the recoveries in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
... Domestically, a significant easing of Covid-related restrictions will boost private consumption and tourism from Q2 forward. But with a weak external environment, rising price pressures, and a hawkish central bank, downside risks to growth persist. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
... somewhat after a sharp slowdown in early April, we think the economic disruption will last into May – if not longer. Meanwhile, repercussions from the Russia-Ukraine war will weigh on China's external demand. We expect ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
... Domestically, a significant easing of Covid-related restrictions will boost private consumption and tourism from Q2 forward. But with a weak external environment, rising price pressures, and a hawkish central bank, downside risks to growth persist. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
... somewhat after a sharp slowdown in early April, we think the economic disruption will last into May – if not longer. Meanwhile, repercussions from the Russia-Ukraine war will weigh on China's external demand. We expect ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
... expect the economy to weather the slightly faster pace of monetary policy normalisation and maintain our 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts at 7.3% and 5.8% respectively. However, we admit downside risks to growth have ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
... of 6.0% in 2021. Political uncertainty has increased drastically as the prime minister is due to face a no-confidence vote in parliament on 3 April. If the government loses the vote, the opposition is likely ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
... a continued recovery in domestic demand, with the Covid pandemic's drag on the economy fading and prices remaining below the midpoint inflation target despite the recent uptrend. While global trade will likely weaken amid ongoing ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sri Lanka
... debt crisis spills over to the domestic economy. The lack of foreign exchange (FX) reserves has led to a shortage of essential items, a spike in consumer prices, and a sharp currency depreciation. We now ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
... 4%. Still, hours worked continue to be disrupted by high COVID case numbers. While the volatility in commodity prices has seen the trade surplus shrink, the impact on volumes is likely to be muted. The ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
... Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Covid restrictions will weigh on Chinese household consumption and industrial production at least through April and into May. This could have a significant impact on global supply chains. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
... restrictions. That said, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created new sources of risk. We think Malaysia's economy will be negatively affected mainly via higher energy and commodity prices and lower foreign demand. However, Malaysia is ... Read More
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