Category: International Trade
Asia International Trade
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
... Domestically, a significant easing of Covid-related restrictions will boost private consumption and tourism from Q2 forward. But with a weak external environment, rising price pressures, and a hawkish central bank, downside risks to growth persist. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
... somewhat after a sharp slowdown in early April, we think the economic disruption will last into May – if not longer. Meanwhile, repercussions from the Russia-Ukraine war will weigh on China's external demand. We expect ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
... expect the economy to weather the slightly faster pace of monetary policy normalisation and maintain our 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts at 7.3% and 5.8% respectively. However, we admit downside risks to growth have ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
... of 6.0% in 2021. Political uncertainty has increased drastically as the prime minister is due to face a no-confidence vote in parliament on 3 April. If the government loses the vote, the opposition is likely ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
... a continued recovery in domestic demand, with the Covid pandemic's drag on the economy fading and prices remaining below the midpoint inflation target despite the recent uptrend. While global trade will likely weaken amid ongoing ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sri Lanka
... debt crisis spills over to the domestic economy. The lack of foreign exchange (FX) reserves has led to a shortage of essential items, a spike in consumer prices, and a sharp currency depreciation. We now ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
... 4%. Still, hours worked continue to be disrupted by high COVID case numbers. While the volatility in commodity prices has seen the trade surplus shrink, the impact on volumes is likely to be muted. The ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
... Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Covid restrictions will weigh on Chinese household consumption and industrial production at least through April and into May. This could have a significant impact on global supply chains. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
... restrictions. That said, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created new sources of risk. We think Malaysia's economy will be negatively affected mainly via higher energy and commodity prices and lower foreign demand. However, Malaysia is ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China
... but pick up to 5.4% in 2023. To achieve this gain, we expect meaningful and front-loaded policy support from the government, which has emphasized tax cuts and unemployment benefits and has sped up the ap Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan
... of 2.8% in 2022 has been lowered recently, due to higher-than-expected energy costs and inflation, and their impact early in the year on consumption and exports. However, we expect consumption will regain momentum in Q2 Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
... greater-than-anticipated scale of formal and informal international sanctions on Russia. As a small and open economy, Singapore is especially exposed to higher global energy and food prices, weaker foreign demand, and ongoing supply chain disruptions. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
... Ukraine. Headline CPI is now projected to average 1.6% in 2022, up from 1.3% previously. With few signs of wage increases, we believe that the squeeze on households’ real incomes will substantially delay the recovery. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
... less impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war than Europe and some other parts of the world, the resulting rise in global energy and commodity prices, as well as expected slower global trade, will weigh on China's ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines
... and mobility has picked up sharply. That said, headwinds are mounting as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. While the geographical distance and limited economic relations with Russia and Ukraine will limit the direct economic ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
... weakening growth given Taiwan's exposed position in global trade. We have therefore cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 2.6% and have nudged down our expectation for 2023 by 0.1ppt to 2.7% expansion. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
... war. While South Korea has limited direct trade links to Russia and Ukraine, the war has led to higher commodity prices that will worsen the terms of trade and raise CPI inflation, which will dampen ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
... Q2 onwards with the Russia-Ukraine war resulting in higher global energy and food prices, which will affect domestic prices despite subsidies. Still, our 2022 and 2023 growth forecasts remain above the historical trend and consensus ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Russia
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Russia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to decline less than economic growth in 2022, falling by 0.4%, picking up to 0.5% growth in 2023. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
... revisions to our oil and other commodity price forecasts following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We estimate that sharply higher import prices could lower India's terms of trade by 11ppts this year, which will have serious ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
... risen. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, tighter global monetary policy conditions, and a slowdown in China have led us to lower our outlook for trade and downgrade our GDP growth forecasts to 6.1% in ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Russia
... 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 2.5%, in line with our modelling of a “full-scale invasion" scenario. As harsher sanctions have just been announced, we will likely lower our growth forecasts for 2022-2024 further. Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
... the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we foresee higher global energy prices and weaker global growth and trade. Moreover, a string of tax hikes was announced in the FY2022 budget, which will mostly kick ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
... domestic demand. The recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine will also likely lead to lower foreign demand. Nonetheless, we still expect higher vaccination rates and a shift to living with Covid to support stronger domestic ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
... slightly above our forecast. While growth will be less rapid in 2022, we project the economy will grow a healthy 3%, reflecting Taiwan’s position as a key chip supplier. That said, there’s a risk of ... Read More
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