Category: International Trade
Asia International Trade
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cambodia
... We maintain an optimistic outlook for the Cambodian economy. We expect GDP growth of 6.4% y/y in 2025, up from an estimated 6.3% expansion in 2024. Despite downside risks, the overall growth outlook remains positive. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan
... Tengiz oil field is set to boost growth towards end-2025. But the main reason for our forecast upgrade is the unexpectedly strong performance of the non-oil economy. While mining is stagnating, other sectors – construction, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
... 2025, weaker than the estimated 2.5% expansion this year. While our expectations for growth next year are weak, possible front-loading of exports before US tariffs kick in add a material upside risk to our outlook. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Armenia
... domestic demand components have increased. In 2025, the key contributors to growth will be narrower, mainly driven by a 5.7% increase in private consumption and a 2.2% rise in government consumption. Meanwhile, fixed investment is ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
... grew by 5.0% y/y in Q3, maintaining a similar pace to Q2. We expect private consumption – a key driver of growth – will remain resilient. Plus, year-end spending will provide final push in Q4. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
... 2027 due to better export prospects. We believe the benefits generated by a stronger US economy under fiscal stimulus will outweigh the wedge from assumed 10% tariffs on Japan's autos and metals exports to the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
... momentum will drop back from Q4. But buoyant electronics demand suggests the pace of growth into next year is likely to remain healthy. So, we forecast economic growth will pick up to 4.1% in 2025. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
... demand. While some pickup in consumer durable goods imports over the last two months suggested consumer confidence is improving, concerns about the outlook for job markets and incomes will continue to constrain private consumption growth. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
... that Thailand's economy will grow by 3% in 2025, following an estimated 2.7% expansion in 2024. Q3 growth data was somewhat better than expected, but we don't think this reflects a permanent rebound in momentum. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan
... 4.2% growth in 2024. The above-3% growth rate forecast reflects our view that Taiwan's economic fundamentals remain solid, especially considering that local tech companies will remain well positioned to benefit from continued global AI demand. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia
... tightening in the last few months. Household demand, which propelled growth in H1, is slowing as the prohibitively high cost of unsubsidised loans and mortgages begins to bite. In December, demand will receive a fillip ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
... provide a boost to exports next year. However, economic policy uncertainty will undermine South Korea's investment recovery. We trimmed our medium-term GDP forecasts due to our assumption about targeted tariffs being introduced in 2026. Blanket ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Georgia
... index down 10 points for Q4 2024, suggesting growth may be losing some steam. In 2025 we expect growth to moderate to 3.7%, closer to trend levels, with the manufacturing sector being the main drag. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China
... to reflect the impact from the US presidential election. We currently assume the US will impose 30% tariffs on China starting in 2026, which could lower its annual average GDP growth to 3.7% y/y during ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam
... and 6.5% next. Strong industrial production in July and August offset the weakness in September this year despite the impact from Typhoon Yagi. Manufacturing will continue to be the primary engine of growth in 2025. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
... much of this year is unlikely to persist while the low base from a year ago drops out of the comparison. Growing inflationary risks and currency pressures suggest no change to monetary policy next year. Read More
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Macroeconomic Growth Opportunities, China, 2024‒2029
... 5.2% rise in 2023. This growth is supported by robust public investment, a resurgence in private consumption, and increased net exports. However, challenges such as an aging labor force, escalating debt levels, and geopolitical tensions ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kyrgyzstan
... several years of strong growth. The Russia-Ukraine war has bolstered GDP growth in recent years. But although the conflict will continue to provide some support, the economy will normalise towards pre-war growth levels next year. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Papua New Guinea
... a healthy 4.8% this year. Economic activity in the export-dominated economy will be driven mainly by its extraction sector, with high gold prices and increased mining production combining to fuel growth next year and beyond. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Laos
... emigration to neighbouring countries, which has exacerbated existing challenges for human capital. We anticipate a recovery will begin in 2026 when we expect the GDP growth rate to reach 4.0%, rising to 4.3% in 2027. Read More
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Economy of Turkiye 2024
... of industrial progress over several decades and its export profile is that of an advanced country. It has recently experienced a burst of high inflation due to political control of interest rates and the aftermath ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Myanmar
... GDP forecast for Myanmar to 2.0% on the back of the deteriorating security situation, which is affecting every corner of the economy. Confidence is falling and inflation remains high, severely impacting already low real incomes. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Maldives
... grow by a moderate 3.9% in 2025, after expanding by 7.3% this year. Our outlook accounts for the government's plan to reduce public sector investment, particularly in construction, in an effort to contain fiscal deficits. Read More
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China In-depth PESTLE Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in China through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in China through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Afghanistan
... still require humanitarian assistance, the UN has only received 30% of its current $3bn aid target. Limited contributions constrain the support charities provide to those facing chronic poverty and food insecurity, weighing heavily on the ... Read More
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