Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary GDP surprised well to the upside in Q4 2021, expanding 2.1% q/q and bringing the annual growth rate for 2021 to 7.2%. Although the positive end to 2021 has brought strong carry-over effects into early 2022, caution is warranted. Record-high inflation will continu ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Zambia
Country Economic Forecasts - Zambia Strong merchandise trade performance on the back of favourable terms of trade, strengthening business conditions, and the restoration of policy credibility prompted a positive revision to our GDP growth estimation for 2021 to an above-consensus 3.7%. We have adjus ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Kenya
Country Economic Forecasts - Kenya Economic growth has surprised to the upside and has set the stage for resilient growth over the short- to medium term. As a result, we forecast real GDP growth to average 4.1% p.a. over the 2022-25 period, after rising by an estimated 7.6% in 2021. Our outlook is u ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
Country Economic Forecasts - Poland High-frequency indicators show that Poland’s economy has maintained strong growth momentum so far in Q1. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will trim GDP growth this year through the impact on trade and commodity prices. It’s too early to incorporate the impact in o ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
Country Economic Forecasts - Israel Our forecast for Israel’s GDP growth has been raised to 5.5% for 2022 and 3.5% in 2023, following higher than expected 7.8% GDP growth in 2021, led by a rapid decline in new cases of Covid-19, relaxation of travel restrictions and strong investment in the technolo ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia The Malaysian economy exited recession with 6.5% q/q growth in Q4, as expected. After a bumpy 2021, we expect economic momentum to improve further in 2022. However, external risks have risen. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, tighter global monetary polic ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Russia
Country Economic Forecasts - Russia Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions will severely impact the economy. We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 2.5%, in line with our modelling of a “full-scale invasion" scenario. As harsher sanctions have just been announced, we ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore Despite an upward revision to 2021 GDP, we have become more cautious in our short-term growth outlook for Singapore given high inflation, policy tightening, and a weak external environment. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we foresee higher global e ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina Argentina’s GDP grew by 10.3% in 2021, backed by strength in retail trade and manufacturing. Output is almost 5% above its pre-pandemic level and inflation is mounting, so we maintain our view that the economy might be overheating and expect GDP growth to slow ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone
Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means that the economic impact of the conflict on Europe will be larger than we previously assumed. Our new baseline sees higher gas, oil and food prices over the medium term, as well as increased d ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We currently maintain our GDP growth forecast at 3.4% this year as the Czech economy has emerged from the Omicron wave in line with our assumptions. However, we are likely to cut our forecast in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has pushed up ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing With Russia now intent on installing a puppet government in Ukraine, we have moved our global baseline in line with our scenario for a full-scale invasion. Equity returns around previous geopolitical events are mostly comforting f ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand We have lowered our GDP growth forecasts to 4.9% in 2022 and 6.6% in 2023, as we now see higher inflation squeezing real household incomes and dampening the recovery in domestic demand. The recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine will also likely lead to lowe ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Uk Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Uk Weekly Economic Briefing A jump in commodity prices following Russia’s attack on Ukraine points to inflation staying higher for longer, adding to the squeeze on real incomes. A rise in Bank Rate in March is still live, but anything beyond a 25bps hike now look off the ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan Taiwan’s GDP rose 1.9% q/q seasonally adjusted in Q4 2021 after a rise of 1% in Q3, according to revised national account numbers. This brings the 2021 rate to 6.5%, slightly above our forecast. While growth will be less rapid in 2022, we project the economy will ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait Kuwait has announced that it will ease most Covid restrictions including the ban on foreign travel and testing requirements for those who are fully vaccinated. Authorities have also eased restrictions for those without a vaccine, allowing them to enter shopping ma ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing The Russian invasion of Ukraine will exacerbate existing inflation pressures, keeping inflation higher for longer. The war poses downside risks to the US economy as well, but the risks to inflation are greater and leave the Fed on track to begi ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates Recovery in the UAE remains on a firm footing with the PMI for the non-oil sector at 54.1 in January, only slightly down from December despite Omicron concerns. The survey also showed that employment rose for the eighth consecutive month. The resilie ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Brazil
Country Economic Forecasts - Brazil Brazil’s economy ended 2021 on a stronger footing than we expected. GDP returned to growth in the final two months of the year, even as supply shortages were still hitting manufacturers. While any upside surprise in Q4 would mechanically raise our current forecast ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Country Economic Forecasts - Norway We have raised our mainland 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 4.3%, following the full release of the 2021 national accounts. The mainland economy expanded by 1.3% q/q in Q4 despite a 0.4% m/m contraction in December due to the reimposition of Covid containmen ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands The Dutch economy has weathered the lockdown that started in November much better than expected. GDP grew by 0.9% q/q in Q4, significantly higher than our above-consensus call. As a result of this and the lifting of nearly all containment measures by end-Febr ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia National accounts data indicate that GDP grew by 10.6% in 2021, leaving a strong 5.3% carry-over into 2022. Domestic demand surpassed its pre-pandemic trend, implying that the economy is overheating and cannot sustain this pace of growth much longer. We expect t ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Uganda
Country Economic Forecasts - Uganda The Uganda Bureau of Statistics reported that economic growth in Q3 2021 slowed down to 3.8% y-o-y after an expansion of 12.9% y-o-y in Q2 2021, the latter having been supported by base effects. Leading indicators point towards a stronger Q4, with momentum spillin ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland The lifting of most Covid restrictions in January looks to have boosted Irish economic activity. We stick with our forecast that GDP will grow by 3.8% this year, before moderating to around 2% in 2023. And while cost pressures facing firms stayed very elevated, t ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - India
Country Economic Forecasts - India We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 7.7% from 7.9%, while raising the inflation forecast to 6.3% from 5.8%. The forecast changes reflect the significant upward revision to our global oil price forecast to $86pb from $73pb at the start of the year, as we ... Read More
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