Category: Pricing & Markets
Pricing & Markets market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania Flash estimates indicated Romania's Q1 2022 GDP grew 5.2% q/q, significantly better than expected. However, high-frequency data do not point to a sharp acceleration in GDP growth, with industry advancing only 2.5% q/q and retail sales growing by 0.8%. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland Irish inflation reached heights not seen in decades, as consumer prices rose 7% in April. But despite the resulting squeeze on consumers' spending power and another sharp drop in sentiment, survey data and other evidence point to an economy that is be ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria While Nigeria is one of the few countries that is expected to financially benefit from the war between Russia and Ukraine, it has not come off scot-free from the conflict. Higher fuel prices are pressuring households, prompting the government to redire ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Portugal to 6.9% from 4.8% last month. This reflects the huge Q1 GDP upside surprise. GDP rose 2.6% q/q, while we had pencilled in just a 0.4% gain to the start of the year. This builds on last year's s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia The passthrough effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on Zambia should transmit primarily through the terms-of-trade mechanism, considering the limited direct trade ties between the Southern African nation and the Black Sea countries. The energy price disru ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We continue to see non-oil sector growth of 4.7% this year, after increasing by 3.1% in 2021, propelled by high consumer spending and robust real estate sales. Surging oil prices and increasing oil production are also helping economic growth. But there are ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Geopolitical tensions and supply concerns continue to support to commodity prices, especially energy. However, demand headwinds are gathering pace. High energy prices are taking their toll on economic activity globally. In China, indus ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia
Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia We have maintained our GDP forecasts of a 10.9% contraction in 2022 and a 3.3% decline in 2023. While GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.7% y/y in Q1, this mainly reflects buoyant growth in January-February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having alread ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France The invasion of Ukraine by Russia continues to dominate France's outlook. While the direct impact on the French economy will likely be limited given the modest weight of Russia and Ukraine on France’s exports and imports, the real pain will be felt in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria While the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased international uncertainty, the Nigerian economy remains undeterred. The non-oil economy's strong performance persisted in the first quarter of the year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain Spain's 2022 outlook continues to be impacted by the war in Ukraine. Soaring energy prices are pushing inflation higher, eroding real income, while confidence is dramatically down. Thus, we expect Spanish GDP to grow 4.8% this year (down from our previo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America
Analysis by Region - North America We expect GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1, though the underwhelming performance reflects a slower inventory build and weaker exports. While we believe the economy will prove resilient to rising headwinds from higher inflation and a more aggressive Fed tightening cy ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have maintained our Indonesia 2022-2023 GDP growth forecasts at 5.7% following downgrades in February and March. Domestic prices are rising in line with our expectations, with a partial feed through of higher global energy and food prices. As mobilit ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The minutes from the Fed's March policy meeting underscored that policymakers intend to "move the stance of monetary policy towards a neutral posture expeditiously" in order to tackle hot inflation and assuage fears that it is behind the curve. We look for a 5 ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China China’s GDP growth is forecast ease to 4.9% in 2022 but pick up to 5.4% in 2023. To achieve this gain, we expect meaningful and front-loaded policy support from the government, which has emphasized tax cuts and unemployment benefits and has sped up the a ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States US industry is still expanding briskly but now facing a growing list of shifting headwinds. On the macro scale, the Omicron wave has now been largely contained, but higher inflation has remained, greater uncertainty triggered by Russia's inva ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom Industrial production had been increasing slowly but steadily since last October thanks to easing supply chain pressures, but remains about 2% below pre-pandemic levels. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland We have cut our near-term GDP growth forecast for Poland as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has hit trade through sanctions and investment sentiment via elevated uncertainty. In addition, higher energy commodity prices will keep inflation elevated for lon ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a brief but sharp hit from the Omicron outbreak have prompted us to cut our 2022 mainland GDP growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 3.6%. While government subsidies for household electricity bills are containing ene ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.8% to reflect the upward revision to our energy price forecasts after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Headline CPI is now projected to average 1.6% in 2022, up from 1.3% previously. With few signs ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China After a better-than-expected start to the year, recent Omicron outbreaks will undermine China's economic recovery, in addition to the ongoing real estate downturn. While China's economy will be less impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war than Europe and ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine to mean energy prices will stay higher for longer, pushing up Dutch inflation further and weakening growth. We have raised our inflation forecast to 5.7% for this year (from 5.1% last month) and 1.1% in 2023. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe Ukraine's economy has likely contracted by about 40%-45% in the one month since Russia's invasion compared to pre-crisis levels. Our forecast for the rest of the year depends crucially on how long the fighting will last. Judging by Russia’s stalled offensive, we b ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Rising and broadening inflation pressures are pushing Fed Chair Pro Tempore Powell and his fellow FOMC members into a more hawkish stance. With inflation set to run even hotter than current readings, policymakers have a difficult job before them as they try to bring dow ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany The Russian invasion of Ukraine will materially undermine this year's recovery. The headwinds will primarily come via higher energy prices that will heavily curtail consumers' real incomes and the rebound in spending. New supply disruptions are also set t ... Read More
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