Category: Business Services & Administration
Business Services & Administration market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Turkmenistan by 0.1ppt to 3.1% y/y in 2023 and by 0.5ppts to 2.7% y/y in 2024, as we expect energy prices to rise due to an intensifying Israel-Hamas conflict. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lao PDR
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lao PDR We have postponed our projection for the beginning of Laos's GDP recovery to Q1 2024 and have therefore revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6% y/y. Our updated forecast reflects lower household real income due to elevated inflation that is be ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Afghanistan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Afghanistan We've lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Afghanistan to 1.4% from 1.6% previously, following an 11.8% contraction in 2022. The downgrade reflects the three earthquakes that occurred within a week in mid-October and the Taliban's rule ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Venezuela
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Venezuela We've raised our assumptions for Venezuelan's 2023 GDP growth to 1.6%, up from 0.8% six months ago. This follows a stunning 12.4% expansion in 2022. Short-term growth momentum has been heavily supported by the oil sector, as output is estimated ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada Consumers and businesses are starting to yield to higher interest rates, and their full impact is building. The Canadian economy already slipped into a technical recession in Q2 and Q3 2023 according to preliminary GDP estimates by StatCan. We anticipate s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Momentum in economic activity in Uganda remained robust during Q2 2023, mainly supported by the services and industry sectors of the economy. Available data indicates that growth started on a high note in Q3 2023, driven by improvements in exports, loan advancements to th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Grenada
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Grenada We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Grenada by 0.3ppts to 4.3%, as supply chain and tourism conditions within the economy have returned to pre-pandemic levels. But we think the pace of economic growth will slow next year from a projected growt ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Azerbaijan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Azerbaijan We estimate Azerbaijan's growth rate will slow to 0.9% this year from 4.8% in 2022. The primary reason is the drop in oil production, which was down 8% y/y in H1 and was only partially offset by a 3% increase in gas production. We expect growth of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Georgia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Georgia Georgia's economy performed strongly in H1, prompting us to raise our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 6.8% from 3.6% previously. We expect growth to moderate in 2024 but remain solid at 4.1%, modestly down from our previous forecast of 4.4%. Solid fore ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The economy has been resilient in 2023, but we expect growth to lose momentum in the year's closing quarter as higher interest rates and tighter lending conditions weigh on activity. Impacts of a possible government shutdown and a prolonged United Auto Workers strik ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan We have revised our GDP growth forecast for Pakistan next year down to just 0.6% as the ongoing crisis takes a toll on the economy. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were mixed this week as the curve flattened, pivoting around the seven- to 10-year sector. The two-year yield was more than 11bps higher as of mid-Friday afternoon, and the 30-year bond yield was 10bps lower, resulting in the largest weekly cur ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Fed Chair Jerome Powell deliberately avoided breaking much new ground in his Jackson Hole speech this week, but he suggested that the Fed would need to see above-trend GDP growth or labor markets no longer cooling to justify additional rate hikes. Our view is that the e ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The new data on inflation will not change the Fed’s immediate plan or its communication strategy as it will continue to signal that it has not won the inflation battle yet. The Fed will strike a hawkish tone because it wants to prevent ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields finished the week several bps higher, with the front- and intermediate sector seeing the largest back-up in rates. The 2s10s curve was little changed on the week, but a spike in five-year note yields pushed the 5s30s spread back into inversion ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Rwanda
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Rwanda The Rwandan economy performed slightly weaker than anticipated in Q1 2023. This year we expect a tightening in purse strings, both by households and the government, as the substantial rise in prices and higher borrowing costs permeate the economy. In ad ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US While the large base effects that helped pull down headline CPI inflation to 3% in June are behind us, a downshift in shelter inflation, falling auto prices, and a gradual easing in wage growth should mean better news for core inflation through the second half of the ye ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The labor market remains exceptionally tight. Nonfarm payroll growth downshifted in June but held above its average pre-pandemic pace. The unemployment rate inched down to a historically low level and wage growth was stubbornly elevated. We expect more job gains in Q3 b ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were higher this week, led by 20bps increases in seven- and 10-year yields as of early Friday afternoon. Bearish technicals, asset manager positioning, and rising Fed rate hike expectations pushed rates higher overall. The curve steepened, thou ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Barbados
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Barbados We think the Barbados economy will expand by 4.8% this year, following 9.1% growth in 2022. GDP will likely return to its pre-pandemic level by Q4 2023, driven by a solid but slow tourism recovery. We forecast tourist arrivals will grow by 27% in 2023 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia We now forecast North Macedonia's GDP will grow by just 1.3% in 2023. Economic activity is being held back by the sharp rise in interest rates and slower export growth. But the resilience of investment, which supported growth of 2.2% in 2022, wil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei After contracting 1.6% in 2022, Brunei's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 due to higher investment spending, bringing GDP back to its pre-pandemic level. Investment will focus on the expansion of petrochemical plants, r ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Turkmenistan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Turkmenistan We have raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Turkmenistan by 1.1ppts to 3% to reflect our expectation that stronger Chinese import demand in the near term will support economic activity. Revisions to national accounts data also show the hit to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Puerto Rico
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Puerto Rico We've raised our 2023 GDP forecast for Puerto Rico by 0.5ppts to a 0.8% contraction, but have lowered our outlook for 2024 by 1.1ppts to 1.2% growth. Consumer spending and infrastructure projects, backed by federal funds, helped propel Puerto R ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Suriname
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Suriname We have lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Suriname by 0.3ppts to 0.9% because ongoing high inflation, anti-austerity protests, and a weaker global economy will depress real incomes. We now expect recent oil discoveries to contribute to GDP in 2 ... Read More
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