Category: Banking
Banking market research reports by Oxford Economics
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China After a better-than-expected start to the year, recent Omicron outbreaks will undermine China's economic recovery, in addition to the ongoing real estate downturn. While China's economy will be less impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war than Europe and ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines We have raised our Q1 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines as restrictions imposed during the Omicron wave in January proved to be of shorter duration than expected and mobility has picked up sharply. That said, headwinds are mounting as a result o ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland A 5.4% q/q fall in Irish GDP in Q4 2021 was surprisingly weak. But the drop was driven by a surge in intellectual property imports by multinationals, exaggerating the underlying weakness. A spike in Q4 imports is likely to reverse, causing GDP growth to r ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine to mean energy prices will stay higher for longer, pushing up Dutch inflation further and weakening growth. We have raised our inflation forecast to 5.7% for this year (from 5.1% last month) and 1.1% in 2023. ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia Croatia's economy bounced back briskly from the pandemic in 2021 despite ending the year with a slight GDP contraction. Looking ahead to this year, though, we expect growth to slow considerably from 10% in 2021 to 2.6% in 2022, down from our previo ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe Ukraine's economy has likely contracted by about 40%-45% in the one month since Russia's invasion compared to pre-crisis levels. Our forecast for the rest of the year depends crucially on how long the fighting will last. Judging by Russia’s stalled offensive, we b ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa South Africa's real GDP growth of 1.2% q-o-q in Q4 was lower than the consensus forecast of 1.3% q-o-q, and higher than our expectation of a 1.1% q-o-q expansion. The latest increase means that annual real GDP rose by 4.9% in 2021 following a contractio ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana Ghana's post-pandemic economic activity steadily gathered impetus last year with annual real GDP growth accelerating as the year progressed. Consequently, we estimate that real economic growth reached 4.6% in 2021. The country's prospects for 202 ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria The outlook has changed significantly for the worse, so we have revised our growth and inflation forecasts sharply. We now see Bulgarian GDP advancing 2.9% in 2022, 0.7pp down from a month ago, and 3.9% in 2023. As for inflation, we have raised our call ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique We expect the commodity price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war will bolster exports and government revenues, which will offset the impact of higher import prices on inflation and consumer spending. The benefit to GDP will be limited though, as ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa While economic activity was bolstered by the non-oil sectors in 2021, and real GDP expanded by 3.6%, improvements in the oil sector are expected to sustain a strong economic performance in 2022. Elevated oil prices should bolster the hydrocarbons sector, and these benefit ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Rising and broadening inflation pressures are pushing Fed Chair Pro Tempore Powell and his fellow FOMC members into a more hawkish stance. With inflation set to run even hotter than current readings, policymakers have a difficult job before them as they try to bring dow ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine will cause commodity prices to stay higher for longer, pushing up inflation further and weakening growth given Taiwan's exposed position in global trade. We have therefore cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts t ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though the MPC raised Bank Rate for the third successive meeting, March's minutes revealed a clear change in tone. Growing concerns about the downside risks to growth from high inflation mean that we think another 25bps hike in the UK policy rate in May will ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.7% last month and our 2023 forecast to 5.8% from 6.9%. These reductions reflect the substantial upward revisions to our oil and other commodity price forecasts following Russia's invasion of Ukrain ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted significant revisions to our forecasts for the eurozone. We now expect higher-for-longer inflation, seen at around 5% this year, combined with lower growth of just 3%. Further revisions are likely, especially as latest ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We have cut our 2022 GDP growth projection by 0.4ppts to 2.1% following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There is immense uncertainty about the scale of the conflict's impact, but external factors have already added to the challenges faced by the Turkish economy this year. Soa ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 5% from 5.3% due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and associated higher-for-longer energy price inflation. Still, we think Portugal will likely be among the eurozone countries least affected economically by the ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The last week has delivered little let-up in the energy price-driven supply shock to the UK economy triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Inflation is set to rise above 8% later in the spring and we have downgraded our forecast for GDP growth this year ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria We have cut our near-term growth forecast for Austria due to impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Supply chains were just beginning to recover prior to the attack but headwinds are now intensifying. We expect a large hit to trade, a direct hit from tra ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Latin America
Analysis by Region - Latin America We maintain our 2022 GDP growth forecast at 2%, but downside risks are growing. We expect the Russia-Ukraine conflict will lead to tightening global financial conditions that will likely curb foreign investment, put pressure on the peso, and risk higher-for-longer ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain The invasion of Ukraine by Russia will slow growth this year. The war has led to soaring energy prices and will push inflation even higher, eroding household real incomes. We now expect GDP to grow 5.1% this year (from a previous 5.6% forecast) and 3.9% in ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Mexico
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Mexico The escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict has added an extra layer of uncertainty to our outlook just weeks after the threat of the Omicron outbreak started to wane. Mexico's direct trade links with Russia and Ukraine are marginal, but the massive surg ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets After an uncertain start to 2022 due to a new wave of the pandemic, emerging markets (EMs) face new headwinds stemming from the sharp escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The impact on growth will be dramatic in Russia and Ukraine, significant in eme ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We are lowering our forecast for the eurozone economies in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The speed at which events are unfolding means that uncertainty remains extremely high, with risks skewed to the downside. Our new projections see a combinat ... Read More
Research Assistance
