Category: Banking
Banking market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Serbia
Analysis by Region - Europe - Serbia The Ukraine war is exacting a toll on Serbian economy, which is now expected to see growth slow to 4.5% for the year even as inflation (standing at 9.6% in April) continues to rise. Russia is Serbia's fifth-largest trade partner (after Germany, China, Italy, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Panama
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Panama Panama's impressive economic recovery during H2 last year exceeded our expectations and resulted in a 15.3% GDP rebound in 2021. We now expect a 7.5% GDP expansion in 2022 and 4.4% growth in 2023. Ongoing coronavirus pandemic-related risks have receded ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Portugal to 6.9% from 4.8% last month. This reflects the huge Q1 GDP upside surprise. GDP rose 2.6% q/q, while we had pencilled in just a 0.4% gain to the start of the year. This builds on last year's s ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Although GDP rose 0.8% in Q1, the monthly numbers showed that growth was concentrated entirely in the first month of the quarter. Output stagnated in February and fell slightly in March, meaning activity had lost momentum even before the full weight of cost ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia The passthrough effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on Zambia should transmit primarily through the terms-of-trade mechanism, considering the limited direct trade ties between the Southern African nation and the Black Sea countries. The energy price disru ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Inflation potentially topped out in March, but risks are tilted to the upside as resilient demand and constrained supply will keep price pressures from fading quickly. With inflation set to ease only gradually in H2 2022, we look for another 50bps Fed rate hike in June ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Nicaragua
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Nicaragua GDP growth rebounded by a stronger-than-expected 10.4% last year, driving output back to 2017 levels and compensating for the three-year long crisis caused by Ortega's administration. We expect Nicaragua’s GDP growth to slow to 2.5% this year as the ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US A sturdy rebound on Friday lessened the blow of another brutal week in the stock market, which notched its sixth consecutive weekly loss, the longest stretch of declines since 2011. Inflation worries and uncertainty over Fed policy continue to stoke investor angst, even ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico Soaring inflation, tighter financial conditions, and slower global growth continue to weigh on Mexico's outlook. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 1.8% this year, in line with consensus, but we cut growth in 2023 by 0.1ppt to 2.5% growth. Direct e ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We continue to see non-oil sector growth of 4.7% this year, after increasing by 3.1% in 2021, propelled by high consumer spending and robust real estate sales. Surging oil prices and increasing oil production are also helping economic growth. But there are ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States The US economy contracted in Q1 for the first time since the pandemic-driven recession ended, but the domestic economy showed resilience in the face of Omicron, lingering supply constraints, and high inflation. Intensifying headwinds from more aggre ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada Canada’s economy successfully weathered the Omicron wave in Q1, but slower growth is on the horizon. An increasingly hawkish Bank of Canada, inflation at a four-decades high, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and a correction in house prices are all expecte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain The impact of the Ukraine war continues to shape Spain's outlook as high inflation erodes real incomes and hits consumer confidence, leading to a fall in household spending. We see Spanish GDP growing 4.5% this year (down from our previous 4.8% forecast ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Chile
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Chile We've raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Chile by 0.5ppts to 1.5% to reflect stronger-than-expected data for March, suggesting a much better carry-over for the rest of the year. Yet the economy is still set to face a technical recession this year, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Costa Rica Costa Rica’s GDP is expected to grow 3.6% in 2022, 0.1ppts above our previous forecast, supported by a recovery in goods exports, rising tourism, and resilient private consumption. That said, since our last report, the global outlook has deteriorated, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa We reiterate our view of rising stagflation risks this round, with revisions to South Africa’s economic growth and inflation forecasts. Across the board sentiment is slowly souring, with the consensus forecast for South Africa real GDP growth in 2022 having ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though the MPC's decision to raise Bank Rate to 1% was predictable, the committee's confusing messaging meant that its future plans are much less clear. In particular, though their new forecasts show GDP falling in 2023, the MPC suggested further rat ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The FOMC this week raised the federal funds rate by 50bp, the first half-point increase in the funds rate in 22 years. The guidance from Fed Chair Powell was to expect more of the same at upcoming meetings and we look for 50bps rate hikes at both the June and July meeti ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The Treasury curve bear-steepened this week. Front-end yields were little changed, but long-end yields surged, led by a rise of more than 20bp in bond yields as real yields led the move higher. US equities were little changed on the week as of late Friday morning despite an exceptional bout of volat ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Egypt
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Egypt The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food prices is being felt and with global food prices projected to rise into Q2, Egyptians will not be able to escape further inflationary pressures. This will weigh on consumer demand, which has proven to be a key ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia
Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia We have maintained our GDP forecasts of a 10.9% contraction in 2022 and a 3.3% decline in 2023. While GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.7% y/y in Q1, this mainly reflects buoyant growth in January-February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having alread ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Economic data released this week raised further concerns over the eurozone economy. Q1 GDP expanded by just 0.2% in Q1, broadly in line with our expectations but in all a sluggish result. Meanwhile, inflation continued to rise, reaching a multi-decade high of 7.5% ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US It was a volatile week in the Treasury market – and in financial markets generally – but in the end, yields finished the week little changed except for at the front end of the curve. Two-year yields were 3bps higher on the week and the 10-year yield was 1bp lower, flatt ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We have maintained our Czech Republic growth forecast for 2022 at 1.9%, as renewed supply disruptions and the cost-of-living crisis, both exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, continue to weigh on the economy. But growth should bounce ba ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria While the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased international uncertainty, the Nigerian economy remains undeterred. The non-oil economy's strong performance persisted in the first quarter of the year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2 ... Read More
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