Category: Banking
Banking market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States Recent stress in the banking system and tighter lending standards will result in a more severe, but still mild, recession in H2 2023 than we previously anticipated. Though banking stress has eased, the economic costs will be incurred with a lag, and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros The Comoran economy is set to uphold its modest growth thanks to strong real private consumption, even though the import bill will remain under pressure due to high import prices. Real GDP growth is expected to reach 3.1% in 2023. We anticipate that th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan Our Pakistan GDP forecast for FY2023 stands at 2.7% as record-high inflation, food shortages, and a slowdown in industrial output pound the economy. Recent waves of terrorist attacks are adding to the impact of inflation and the food crisis, but the form ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We've raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for EMs by 0.2ppts to 3.4%. But we've lowered our 2024 projection by 0.4ppts to 3.9%, primarily due to our revised China outlook. The bank stresses in some advanced economies haven't meaningfully impact ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa We forecast weak economic growth for South Africa in 2023, amid numerous domestic challenges, chief of which is loadshedding, and global economic headwinds. The incessant power outages are weighing on economic activity and exacerbating price press ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile We continue to expect Chile's economy will contract by 1% y/y in 2023. Tighter monetary policy conditions will be one of the driving factors behind the recession we expect to last until Q3 this year. Indeed, the February monthly GDP proxy (IMACEC) fe ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea We've downgraded our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 2.1% to reflect a more gradual global recovery and maintained our below-consensus 2023 growth forecast at 0.5%. We think South Korea will narrowly avoid a technical recession, but exports ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico We continue to raise our 2023 GDP growth outlook for Mexico to reflect strong domestic momentum. We now see stronger activity in H1 and have raised our 2023 growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 1.5%, broadly in line with the consensus. However, risks of a slow ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We have raised our 2023 eurozone GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 0.8%. However, we've cut our outlook for 2024 by 0.3ppts to 1% growth as a consequence of the lagged impact from tighter financing conditions. Our base case remains that the eurozone ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Phase II of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP-II) will be the heartbeat of economic growth over 2023-2029, provided that construction targets are met in accordance with the project schedule. We expect that fixed investment will gain traction in the coming months t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana The first quarter has come and gone, and the Ghanaian government failed to present its case to the Executive Board of the IMF. Accra aimed to wrap up bilateral debt restructuring before the end of Q1 to provide the multilateral organisation with the nece ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The March jobs report suggests the US labor market is moving into a healthier balance as softer employment growth and cooler wage inflation suggest we're nearing the end of the Fed's rate hiking cycle. But we expect another 25bps rate hike by the Fed in May sinc ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were less than 10bps lower this past week, led by the belly of the curve. Most of the week's strong early gains were unwound ahead of the weekend though, as yields jumped Friday in response to the solid March nonfarm payrolls report. The do ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We maintain our below-consensus 2023 inflation forecast for Brazil, Mexico, and Chile, as seasonal and Phillips curve models point to a downside bias to our estimates. Still, we recognise that sticky core prices and unwinding food and fuel subsidies could ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gabon
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gabon The Gabonese economy struggled over the 2016-2021 period as the oil sector suffered a string of external shocks. Real GDP growth averaged 1.2% p.a. over this period. This trend reversed in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, resulting in a squeeze on glob ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A hawkish speech from Huw Pill emphasised that May's MPC meeting is very much live. Pill talked about needing to "see the job through", suggesting he's swaying towards voting for another 25bps hike, though he also emphasised there was alrea ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia We expect Saudi Arabia's economy will grow 1.6% in 2023 given a weaker global environment and oil output cuts. Revised official figures show the economy expanded 8.7% in 2022, with 15.4% in oil activity, 5.4% in non-oil growth, and 2.6% in govern ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia We have boosted our 2023 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 0.5% as unexpectedly low winter energy import costs, allowing more resilient domestic demand, has averted the risk of further GDP declines. But industrial output is still set to fall sharply due to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles Real GDP is estimated to have grown by a strong 10.1% in 2022, with the size of the economy reaching pre-coronavirus pandemic levels. The island nation's tourist arrivals have started to pick up, but are yet to reach pre-pandemic levels. Thankfu ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Financial markets continued to stabilize this week amid easing concerns about the banking sector. The Fed's balance sheet data also offered signs of stability as loans to banks declined overall. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US The front-end of the curve led a large rise in Treasury yields this past week as the banking sector finally found its footing. That led to an unwinding of a portion of this month's large bull steepening flows as traders pared Fed rate cut expectations. Equ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina Argentina's economy grew 0.3% m/m in January, according to the monthly GDP indicator (EMAE). This modest expansion breaks a streak of four consecutive monthly declines in activity since September last year. However, we still expect the economy to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq Despite a decrease in oil output in Q1 2023, we've maintained our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%. This is because Iraq is seeking to expand its oil opportunities through offering production and exploration licenses in H2 2023. So far, it's kept its ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Once pent-up demand from post-lockdown fades, we think that Asian economies will settle at lower GDP growth and higher inflation than our pre-pandemic forecasts. This means nominal interest rates are also likely to stay high in 2023-2024. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia We've cut our 2023 GDP forecast by 0.5ppts to 2.1% for Bolivia. Last year's sources of growth are fading as it was backed by new public investment projects and a surge in hydrocarbon's exports to Argentina. Additionally, private consumption ... Read More
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