Category: Banking
Banking market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The first business surveys of Q3 provided more evidence that the UK economic recovery has now taken root. While it's still early days, our forecast that q/q GDP growth is likely to remain solid in Q3, albeit slightly slower than in Q2, remains on track. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Governments' reputations for meeting fiscal projections have recovered significantly since the bashing they took during the Covid period, according to our scorecard based on the misses from fiscal ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The lull in the economy during the first three months of the year proved to be temporary. The reacceleration in GDP growth in Q2 should help temper concerns about the durability of the expansion and quiet chatter that the Federal Reserve needs to cut inte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea We estimate that North Korea GDP in 2023 turned positive for the first time in three years, thanks to a sudden increase in ammunition sales to Russia and non-state armed actors. That said, we still expect North Korea's economic outlook to remain c ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK GDP growth beat expectations again in May, meaning output remains on track for another quarter of solid growth in Q2. This adds to the evidence that the economy has now firmly turned a corner and supports our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth in 202 ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We expect the recent fiscal concerns that drove a sell-off in Brazilian assets will be temporary and interest rates to have peaked. We find that, although fiscal sentiment has worsened during the last few months ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The Bank of England's Financial Stability Report echoed our warnings that the impact of tighter monetary policy is still to fully pass through to households. The increase in debt servicing costs should be manageable for most, but there's a long tail ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Even though economic growth in Q2 is tracking below our expectations, we still think the core of the economy is healthy and we anticipate growth will remain close to 2% over the rest of this year. The labor market is resilient, and with inflation pressures easing again, ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Headline inflation in most of the ASEAN-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) is tracking higher this year. However, we still expect full-year figures for inflation in 2024 will be softer than in 2023, except in Vietnam ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy As estimated last quarter, Italy’s industrial output in Q4 has gone from bad to worse. The country’s output fell by 0.4% in the final quarter of 2023, the third consecutive fall in output. While manufacturing did grow in 2023’s last quarter, industrial p ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States US industrial production growth has been revised up to grow 2.1% in 2024, and gradually cool down in 2025 with 1.5% growth. We expect to see positive sequential quarter-on-quarter growth every quarter this year except for Q4. We continue to belie ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan The industrial production outlook in 2024 for Japan remains poor, with output forecast to contract by 1.2% in 2024, a 1.4ppt downwards revision from our previous forecast. This reflects sluggish domestic demand, particularly in consumption, which was var ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom We have revised down our forecast for 2024 industrial production growth to 0.3%. We expect the Monetary Policy Committee will begin to cut interest rates in August of this year as there is evidence of loosening in labour market conditions and we ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK private sector regular pay growth continued to soften in April, despite upward pressure from the month's national living wage increase. With labour market conditions continuing to cool, we expect pay growth to weaken further in the coming months, allo ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Open Market Committee's updated economic projections point to just one rate cut this year, but those forecasts are already outdated as they don't capture the good news on inflation reported this week. We continue to expect two rate cuts this year, wi ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Czech Republic
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Czech Republic Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2024, increasing by 1.6%, picking up to 4.3% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Netherlands
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Netherlands Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, falling by 3.1%, picking up to 3.3% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ecuador
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ecuador Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2024, increasing by 2.3%, picking up to 2.6% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malaysia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malaysia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2024, increasing by 3.5%, picking up to 4.6% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Turkey
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Turkey Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, increasing by 1.8%, before easing to 1.6% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Greece
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Greece Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2024, increasing by 4%, before easing to 3.8% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bermuda
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bermuda We forecast GDP to grow by 4% in 2024, and another 4% in 2025. Bermuda's budget for FY24/25 has supported our forecast of solid growth prospects for the near term. The budget, titled: 'Investing in our people and our future', contains many pra ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We have revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Kyrgyzstan to 4% y/y, 0.2ppts down from the previous forecast. We expect that growth will drop to 3.2% y/y in 2025, but will then hover around 4% in the medium to long term. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Curacao
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Curacao We expect Curaçao's GDP to grow by 1.3% this year, marking a slowdown from a recent post-pandemic rebound. The higher interest rate environment will weigh on private investment in important industries and the slowdown in global growth will hurt t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Macedonia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Macedonia For North Macedonia, we now forecast that GDP will grow by a more muted 1.9% this year followed by slightly stronger growth of 2.5% in 2025. In both the parliamentary and presidential election, the VMRO-DPMNE party received significant support lea ... Read More
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