Category: International Trade
South America International Trade
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
... global economic uncertainty due to US tariffs and instability in the Middle East could cool investment. This comes on top of domestic political instability, with the Petro government losing its third finance minister this month. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
... driven by robust private consumption, supported by higher real wages. This should offset a negative contribution from net trade. However, risks remain tilted to the downside, including a stronger-than-expected La Niña, restrictive monetary policy, and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
... outlook will be more pronounced next year, prompting a larger reduction in our 2026 forecast of 0.5ppts, to 2.4%. On a positive note, the Q4 national accounts confirmed that consumer expenditure remained resilient, and prospects ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
... cut is due to base effects. The threat of droughts due to the La Niña weather pattern, the likely deal with the International Monetary Fund, and the end of capital controls are key events to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
... by 0.6ppts to 1.2%. A smaller carryover from 2024, a much tighter monetary policy stance, and the beginning of a deterioration in labour market conditions justify our below-consensus view on growth this year and next. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
... be relatively small, we consider that secondary effects such as lower global trade and less business confidence will hinder growth. Domestic demand will slow this year; but private consumption will continue to be one of ... Read More
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Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Peru
... (9.6%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are expected to grow by 4.4%, 5.6%, and 5.3%, respectively, in 2024. Three major metropolitan areas (Lima, Arequipa, Trujillo) in Peru contributed 49.2% to the country’s GDP and ... Read More
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Argentina In-depth PESTLE Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Argentina through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Argentina through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
... lower inflation. Private consumption will lose some momentum due to its robust performance over the past five quarters. But we think the strength in investment will offset it. Risks remain tilted to the downside due ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
... from a 1% contraction in 2024 to 1.8% growth in 2025. This rebound is mainly due to base effects, as market conditions for consumers and businesses will remain tough. Our GDP projections are above the ... Read More
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Bolivia In-depth PEST Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Bolivia through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Bolivia through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
... better-than-expected Q3 performance in the external sector. Our forecast for next year is lower than consensus for 2025 but higher for 2026. The approved RIGI scheme presents an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets
... This reflects our view that private consumption is gaining momentum as inflation falls faster than we anticipated. With interest rates falling and inflation cooling, we anticipate a slight uptick in growth next year to 4%. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
... in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects and a maturing of the oil industry. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America
... cut our 2025 projection to 2.0% from 3.0%. The IMF projects GDP growth at 3.0% for both years. Our outlook is more pessimistic as we expect harsher fiscal and monetary consolidation will depress economic activity. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Paraguay
... labor market and a recovery in real wages, along with more accommodative financial conditions, support our forecast. We expect these factors will drive domestic demand to expand by 5.7% this year and 4.0% next. This ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia
... to 1.0% due to the protracted riots and higher inflation weighing on feeble domestic demand. The Supreme Court banned ex-president Evo Morales from running in the 2025 elections, triggering a political stalemate. Meanwhile, the Congress ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela
... with our forecast. The country will likely reach 1mn bpd output next year, as foreign oil licences continue. After July's elections, our baseline continues to be for President Nicolás Maduro to be re-elected with current economic ... Read More
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Economy of Paraguay 2024
... develop housing and healthcare. A major anomaly in its trade is that China is the single largest source of imports whereas it has minimal exports in the other direction. This situation will only be rectified ... Read More
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Economy of Uruguay 2024
... order to raise the growth rate it needs to integrate further in the industrial supply chains of Brazil and Argentina, invest in niche high value added sectors and continue to develope its exports to China. Read More
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Paraguay In-depth PEST Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Paraguay through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Paraguay through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Economy of Chile 2024
... same time that period created the basis for a funcioning economy which was bequeated to its democratic successors. Chile consistently grows in the 5-6% pa range and is considered a model country in the region. Read More
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Economy of Peru 2024
... failed sate. In the 1990's the Government of Fujimori undertook reforms that restored order to the public finances. Since the Millennium Peru is a much better ruuuuuuuuuun country and regularly grows at 5% a year. Read More
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Brazil In-depth PESTLE Insights
... analysis.Synopsis Understand the political system in Brazil through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Brazil through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer demographics ... Read More
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Economy of Colombia 2024
... the most successful countries in Latin America. It joined the OECD in 2020, has manageable debt and deficits and has achieved near universal health coverage. Numerous challenges are works in progress but the dramatic fall ... Read More
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