Category: International Trade
South America International Trade
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
... of 2024, despite large rises in regulated electricity prices. Inflation of close to 5% y/y and growth risks are to the upside. A recovery in copper production also supports the outlook. As a result, we ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
... and exports should continue their strong momentum and drive growth in the coming quarters. Inflation is bound to gradually slow, and we expect a return to the target range in 2026. We think this will ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
... by 0.6ppts to 1.2%. A smaller carryover from 2024, a much tighter monetary policy stance, and the beginning of a deterioration in labour market conditions justify our below-consensus view on growth this year and next. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
... be relatively small, we consider that secondary effects such as lower global trade and less business confidence will hinder growth. Domestic demand will slow this year; but private consumption will continue to be one of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
... Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La Nina weather pattern and droughts present a downside risk. Read More
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Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Peru
... (9.6%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are expected to grow by 4.4%, 5.6%, and 5.3%, respectively, in 2024. Three major metropolitan areas (Lima, Arequipa, Trujillo) in Peru contributed 49.2% to the country’s GDP and ... Read More
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Argentina In-depth PESTLE Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Argentina through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Argentina through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
... matched our forecast of 0.7% q/q. But dynamics in demand-side components, along with revisions to historical data, suggest softer momentum. This is particularly evident in fixed investment, where we expect a slower rebound after a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
... lower inflation. Private consumption will lose some momentum due to its robust performance over the past five quarters. But we think the strength in investment will offset it. Risks remain tilted to the downside due ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
... from a 1% contraction in 2024 to 1.8% growth in 2025. This rebound is mainly due to base effects, as market conditions for consumers and businesses will remain tough. Our GDP projections are above the ... Read More
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Bolivia In-depth PEST Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Bolivia through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Bolivia through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
... better-than-expected Q3 performance in the external sector. Our forecast for next year is lower than consensus for 2025 but higher for 2026. The approved RIGI scheme presents an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets
... This reflects our view that private consumption is gaining momentum as inflation falls faster than we anticipated. With interest rates falling and inflation cooling, we anticipate a slight uptick in growth next year to 4%. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
... in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects and a maturing of the oil industry. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America
... cut our 2025 projection to 2.0% from 3.0%. The IMF projects GDP growth at 3.0% for both years. Our outlook is more pessimistic as we expect harsher fiscal and monetary consolidation will depress economic activity. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Paraguay
... labor market and a recovery in real wages, along with more accommodative financial conditions, support our forecast. We expect these factors will drive domestic demand to expand by 5.7% this year and 4.0% next. This ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia
... to 1.0% due to the protracted riots and higher inflation weighing on feeble domestic demand. The Supreme Court banned ex-president Evo Morales from running in the 2025 elections, triggering a political stalemate. Meanwhile, the Congress ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela
... with our forecast. The country will likely reach 1mn bpd output next year, as foreign oil licences continue. After July's elections, our baseline continues to be for President Nicolás Maduro to be re-elected with current economic ... Read More
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Economy of Paraguay 2024
... develop housing and healthcare. A major anomaly in its trade is that China is the single largest source of imports whereas it has minimal exports in the other direction. This situation will only be rectified ... Read More
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Economy of Uruguay 2024
... order to raise the growth rate it needs to integrate further in the industrial supply chains of Brazil and Argentina, invest in niche high value added sectors and continue to develope its exports to China. Read More
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Paraguay In-depth PEST Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Paraguay through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Paraguay through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Economy of Chile 2024
... same time that period created the basis for a funcioning economy which was bequeated to its democratic successors. Chile consistently grows in the 5-6% pa range and is considered a model country in the region. Read More
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Economy of Peru 2024
... failed sate. In the 1990's the Government of Fujimori undertook reforms that restored order to the public finances. Since the Millennium Peru is a much better ruuuuuuuuuun country and regularly grows at 5% a year. Read More
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Brazil In-depth PESTLE Insights
... analysis.Synopsis Understand the political system in Brazil through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Brazil through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer demographics ... Read More
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Economy of Colombia 2024
... the most successful countries in Latin America. It joined the OECD in 2020, has manageable debt and deficits and has achieved near universal health coverage. Numerous challenges are works in progress but the dramatic fall ... Read More
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