Category: International Trade
North America International Trade
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... quickly. With inflation set to ease only gradually in H2 2022, we look for another 50bps Fed rate hike in June and see upside risk to our call for 200bps of rate tightening this year. Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... 2011. Inflation worries and uncertainty over Fed policy continue to stoke investor angst, even as external forces – the war in Ukraine, Covid lockdowns in China and, lately, extreme weather conditions – contribute to market ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico
... this year, in line with consensus, but we cut growth in 2023 by 0.1ppt to 2.5% growth. Direct effects from the war in Ukraine remain limited, but the economy remains vulnerable to global supply disruptions. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
... supply constraints, and high inflation. Intensifying headwinds from more aggressive Fed tightening and tighter financial conditions should slow the economy this year without stalling it, but we see increased odds of a hard landing in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
... from the war in Ukraine, and a correction in house prices are all expected to contribute to a sharp slowdown in economic growth next year. We forecast GDP will rise 4.1% in 2022 before growth ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... to expect more of the same at upcoming meetings and we look for 50bps rate hikes at both the June and July meetings. The Fed also confirmed that it will begin reducing its Treasury and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... were little changed on the week as of late Friday morning despite an exceptional bout of volatility following the FOMC decision. And the dollar was also little changed after struggling to sustain any gains through ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... spending in March outpaced the 40-year high in inflation, which provides a solid handoff to consumer spending growth in Q2 which we see running close to 3% as the consumer rotates more towards services spending. Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... the front end of the curve. Two-year yields were 3bps higher on the week and the 10-year yield was 1bp lower, flattening the 2s/10s curve by about 4bps to 20bps. The Treasury market looked past ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... a single policy meeting since 2000. Inflation is approaching its peak but won't fall quickly, and as such we see another 50bps increase in June and a total of 200bps of rate hikes in 2022. Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... weekly rise in the 1-year bill yield since March 25, and before that since 2008. Rising rates weighed on stocks late in the week, while also boosting the dollar index to the highest since March ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... gradual retreat, and expect prices to still be running 5% higher on an annual basis by year-end. That outlook leaves the Fed on track to pursue its aggressive anti-inflation campaign, and likely to raise rates ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
... are held hostage by the war in Ukraine, as well as spreading Covid lockdowns in China, which may prolong supply-chain shortages. Core consumer prices are already moderating, but a sharp drop in used car prices ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - Canada
... and a correction in house prices are expected to slow growth later in the year and through 2023. We forecast GDP growth of 4.1% in 2022 (+3.9% previously) before weakening to 2.2% in 2023 (+2.5% ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico
... weighing on Mexico's outlook. We have shaved our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.8% and now expect 2.6% growth in 2023. The government has maintained a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America
... rising headwinds from higher inflation and a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle, risks are tilted to the downside, and our yield curve models signal increased risk of a harder landing in 2023. We see real ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... inflation and assuage fears that it is behind the curve. We look for a 50bps rate hike at each of the upcoming May and June FOMC policy meetings. The Fed is also poised to start ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... pace of rate hikes and to raise the federal funds rate by 50bps each in May and June. We expect a cumulative rate hike of 200bps this year, pushing the funds rate into restrictive territory. Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... than current readings, policymakers have a difficult job before them as they try to bring down prices and avoid a hard landing. We forecast 150bps more in Fed rate hikes this year and for balance ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America
... better than expected, but new headwinds have emerged that will boost inflation and slow growth. Accordingly, we have lowered our GDP growth forecasts by 0.3ppts to 3.9% in 2022 and 0.6ppts to 2.5% in 2023. Read More
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Macro Weekly Economic Briefing US
... posing a unique challenge for the Fed as it is set to start tightening policy. We look for the tightening cycle to start with a moderate 25bps hike next week. We expect the Fed to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Mexico
... Mexico's direct trade links with Russia and Ukraine are marginal, but the massive surge in commodity prices and the additional strain on global supply chains add downside risks to our outlook. We maintain our 2022 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
... emerged as key risks. We anticipate real GDP will grow by 3.4% this year and slow to 2.1% in 2023, but risks are tilted to the downside given the intensifying inflation shock, a growing fiscal ... Read More
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Global Trade Finance Market, By Finance Type (Structured Trade Finance, Supply Chain Finance, Traditional Trade Finance), By Offering (Letters of Credit, Bill of Lading, Export Factoring, Insurance, Others), By Service Provider (Banks, Trade Finance Houses), By End-User (Small and Medium Enterprises, Large Enterprises), By Region (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific (APAC), Latin America (LATAM), Middle-East & Africa (MEA)Trend Analysis, Competitive Market Share & Forecast, 2018-2028
... By End-User (Small and Medium Enterprises, Large Enterprises), By Region (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific (APAC), Latin America (LATAM), Middle-East & Africa (MEA)Trend Analysis, Competitive Market Share & Forecast, 2018-2028 Trade Finance Market Poised to Witness ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
... the Omicron wave is fading, so the economy should rebound quickly in Q2. We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 4.2% but have lowered our 2023 estimate by 0.2ppts to 3.1%. Read More
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