Category: International Trade
North America International Trade
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... but strong consumer spending and labor market fundamentals will keep the economy in expansion mode, with GDP set to grow 3% this quarter and 2.6% for the full year. We see growth downshifting to 1.8% ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... early Friday afternoon, with the 2-year yield rising by the most since June 2009. The two-week rise in the 2-year yield has been the largest since April 2008. The 2-year/10-year spread was 14bp tighter this ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... the largest weekly increase in 3-year and 5-year yields in 10 weeks. The S&P Index was up 1.2% on the week as of early Friday afternoon even after a large selloff ahead of the weekend, ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... the report to deter the Fed from aggressively continuing to raise rates. Some FOMC officials all but confirmed this week that the Fed will raise rates by 50bps at both the June and July meetings. Read More
-
Global apparel trade and trade policy: the US clothing import market, June 2022
... imports into the USA from ten key supplying countries, namely Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Mexico, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. US clothing imports rose in value and volume terms in 2021. However, the ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... hike bets. Stocks bounced back after finding support last week at the 38% retracement of the March 2020 through January 2021 rally in the S&P. As of late Friday morning, the S&P 500 Index was ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... increasing. A more aggressive pace of Fed rate hikes, a tightening in financial conditions, the ongoing war in Ukraine and China's strict Covid lockdown policies increase the risk that growth falls short of our forecast. Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bermuda
... the coronavirus pandemic. However, this positive outlook is dependent on Bermuda's year-end tourism statistics rebounding from 2021 levels, when the number of leisure air visitors was down 71.2% and cruise arrivals were 97.3% below 2019 ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... quickly. With inflation set to ease only gradually in H2 2022, we look for another 50bps Fed rate hike in June and see upside risk to our call for 200bps of rate tightening this year. Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... 2011. Inflation worries and uncertainty over Fed policy continue to stoke investor angst, even as external forces – the war in Ukraine, Covid lockdowns in China and, lately, extreme weather conditions – contribute to market ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico
... this year, in line with consensus, but we cut growth in 2023 by 0.1ppt to 2.5% growth. Direct effects from the war in Ukraine remain limited, but the economy remains vulnerable to global supply disruptions. Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
... supply constraints, and high inflation. Intensifying headwinds from more aggressive Fed tightening and tighter financial conditions should slow the economy this year without stalling it, but we see increased odds of a hard landing in ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
... from the war in Ukraine, and a correction in house prices are all expected to contribute to a sharp slowdown in economic growth next year. We forecast GDP will rise 4.1% in 2022 before growth ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... to expect more of the same at upcoming meetings and we look for 50bps rate hikes at both the June and July meetings. The Fed also confirmed that it will begin reducing its Treasury and ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... were little changed on the week as of late Friday morning despite an exceptional bout of volatility following the FOMC decision. And the dollar was also little changed after struggling to sustain any gains through ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... spending in March outpaced the 40-year high in inflation, which provides a solid handoff to consumer spending growth in Q2 which we see running close to 3% as the consumer rotates more towards services spending. Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... the front end of the curve. Two-year yields were 3bps higher on the week and the 10-year yield was 1bp lower, flattening the 2s/10s curve by about 4bps to 20bps. The Treasury market looked past ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... a single policy meeting since 2000. Inflation is approaching its peak but won't fall quickly, and as such we see another 50bps increase in June and a total of 200bps of rate hikes in 2022. Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... weekly rise in the 1-year bill yield since March 25, and before that since 2008. Rising rates weighed on stocks late in the week, while also boosting the dollar index to the highest since March ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... gradual retreat, and expect prices to still be running 5% higher on an annual basis by year-end. That outlook leaves the Fed on track to pursue its aggressive anti-inflation campaign, and likely to raise rates ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - North America - US
... are held hostage by the war in Ukraine, as well as spreading Covid lockdowns in China, which may prolong supply-chain shortages. Core consumer prices are already moderating, but a sharp drop in used car prices ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - North America - Canada
... and a correction in house prices are expected to slow growth later in the year and through 2023. We forecast GDP growth of 4.1% in 2022 (+3.9% previously) before weakening to 2.2% in 2023 (+2.5% ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico
... weighing on Mexico's outlook. We have shaved our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.8% and now expect 2.6% growth in 2023. The government has maintained a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - North America
... rising headwinds from higher inflation and a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle, risks are tilted to the downside, and our yield curve models signal increased risk of a harder landing in 2023. We see real ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
... inflation and assuage fears that it is behind the curve. We look for a 50bps rate hike at each of the upcoming May and June FOMC policy meetings. The Fed is also poised to start ... Read More
Research Assistance
