Category: International Trade
Africa International Trade
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
... from the conflict. Higher fuel prices are pressuring households, prompting the government to redirect funding to finance fuel subsidies. Furthermore, the hydrocarbons sector continues recording sub-par performances, with oil output rising by 5.4% q-o-q to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia
... and the Black Sea countries. The energy price disruption has already started to filter through to the real economy, as Zambia executed a sizeable pump price adjustment at end-March. Notwithstanding a partial overturn of steep ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
... with the consensus forecast for South Africa real GDP growth in 2022 having come down to 1.9% most recently. We are less optimistic though and forecast real GDP to grow at a slower rate of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Egypt
... to escape further inflationary pressures. This will weigh on consumer demand, which has proven to be a key driver of economic growth over the past two years. Last month's purchasing managers' index (PMI) − which ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
... year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2022, from 55.2 points in Q4 2021, when real GDP expanded by 9.7% q-o-q. Furthermore, the hydrocarbons sector has benefitted from elevated oil prices, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
... year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2022, from 55.2 points in Q4 2021, when real GDP expanded by 9.7% q-o-q. Furthermore, the hydrocarbons sector has benefitted from elevated oil prices, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
... 5.6% in 2022. That said, low growth and high inflation have been key features of the economy even before the pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine: real GDP grew by less than 1% p.a. between ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
... to consumer price inflation. Furthermore, an exodus of dollars amid shifting EM sentiment coupled with a growing import bill also pose a serious threat to the external position. Against this backdrop, we have cut our ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
... q-o-q expansion. The latest increase means that annual real GDP rose by 4.9% in 2021 following a contraction of 6.4% in 2020. South Africa’s economy expanded by the quickest pace since 2007, but real GDP ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
... 4.6% in 2021. The country's prospects for 2022 are even more encouraging, as we currently project real GDP growth to quicken to 5.2%. This forecast assumes strong export growth and robust private consumption & fixed ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
... inflation and consumer spending. The benefit to GDP will be limited though, as we have raised our 2022 economic growth forecast by only 0.2 pts to 3.4%. Furthermore, the risks to growth are skewed to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
... in 2022. Elevated oil prices should bolster the hydrocarbons sector, and these benefits will be compounded as oil output recovers and the new Dangote oil refinery comes online. Consequently, economic growth is forecast at 3.4% ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia
... led us to lower our growth forecast for 2022 from 3.4% to 2.0%. Tunisia's lack of access to international markets will continue to lessen the government's space for fiscal manoeuvring, which limits the government's ability ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
... fuel prices will exacerbate underlying inflationary trends that were present before the conflict in Ukraine. GDP growth is expected to drop from 8.7% in 2021 to 3.5% this year, before recovering to 6.5% in 2023. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
... of Covid-19 restrictions. Official estimates show that agricultural sector growth has been revised upwards to 36.2% in 2021, on the back of higher-than-expected estimates of tobacco, wheat, cotton, beef and pork output, among others. Elsewhere ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
... economic and developmental prospects are weighed down by several internal and exogenous factors. Locally, fiscal constraints, inadequate private sector participation, and the risk of a resurgence in anti-monarchy protests limit growth below potential. This is ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Angola
... up to 2.8% this year – the best growth rate since 2014. The acceleration in economic growth will be supported by the ramp-up in production from oil project start-ups, increased investment in the energy sector, ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Zambia
... for 2021 to an above-consensus 3.7%. We have adjusted our 2022 GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 2.0% in reflection of robust business sentiment and improving prospects for a conclusion to the debt restructuring process, ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Kenya
... average 4.1% p.a. over the 2022-25 period, after rising by an estimated 7.6% in 2021. Our outlook is underpinned by strong growth in the finance, information & communication technology (ICT), trade, real estate, wholesale & ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Uganda
... supported by base effects. Leading indicators point towards a stronger Q4, with momentum spilling over into the new year. At the start of 2022, the government fully reopened the economy, allowing schools and the night-life ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Cote D Ivoire
... sectors, while the agricultural sector delivered another solid, albeit less impressive, performance. We anticipate another strong showing by Côte d’Ivoire in 2022 as demand for the country’s main export commodity – cocoa – begins to ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Malawi
... March 2021, is hampering efforts to restart the economy. We expect real GDP growth to rebound to 3.5% p.a. in 2022-25, though Cyclone Ana may exert some downward pressure on Malawi’s economic growth in 2022. Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Nigeria
... growth is forecast to increase from 2.9% in 2021 to 3.7% in 2022. Nevertheless, risks persist as weakened socio-economic conditions hinder economic development and the government is not expected to implement unpopular, but necessary, reforms ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Morocco
... the sector came in just below its pre-pandemic level. Global supply chain blockages placed increasing pressure on the sector in Q4, and we suspect the effects thereof continued to hamper economic activity in Q1 2022. ... Read More
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