Category: International Trade
Africa International Trade
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
... y/y in Q1, fuelled by heightened geopolitical tensions. Arabica coffee prices rose by 88.4% y/y over the same period due to adverse weather conditions in key producing regions. Key risks to our real GDP outlook ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
... confidence is increasing, as evidenced by Benin's successful $500m Eurobond sale in January 2025. Meanwhile, price pressures remain moderate, and fiscal consolidation efforts are yielding positive results. That said, challenges persist, including climate risks, regional ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
... consumption. We have raised our forecast for average real GDP growth between 2026 and 2030 by 0.6 ppt to 3.8% p.a. in line with the IMF. Downside risks include the island nation's ongoing inflationary pressures ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
... hundreds of deaths and a sharp contraction in GDP in Q4. Recent talks between the new government and the main presidential rival to ease post-election tensions suggest that business conditions could soon return to normal. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
... (Sacu) receipts in the upcoming FY is expected to be offset by rising tax revenues. A partial drawdown of E1.0bn from the Sacu Revenue Stabilisation Fund will further support fiscal revenues. The substantial shift in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo
... activity, and infrastructure investment. Sustaining this momentum will require economic diversification and investment in productivity-enhancing sectors. Structural weaknesses also persist, especially regarding fiscal management. Ultimately, we predict growth to slow to 5.5% this year – ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
... 3.5% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2023. Our projection is below the IMF’s 4.3% forecast, as we believe the country's security situation will constrain stronger growth. Violence has spread across most regions and intensified along ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
... projection of 3.5%. That said, we still anticipate a slowdown in Chad's economic growth this year due to lower oil prices. Domestic security issues undermine structural reform momentum and weigh on medium-term economic growth prospects. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali
... in exports dragged on growth. We forecast real GDP growth to slow over the next two years, reaching 4.4% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026. Malian gold production tumbled to 51.0 tonnes in 2024 from ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
... the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the chances of an end to the war are slightly better than a year ago. Earlier this month, the SAF made major territorial gains, securing much of Khartoum, which it lost ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
... Q3 2024, driven by persistently strong growth in mining & quarrying and accommodation & catering. By contrast, output in agriculture & fisheries contracted by 4.2% y/y. We have revised our real GDP growth forecast for ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
... electricity generation. Meanwhile, the ZiG has stabilised somewhat after last year’s 43% devaluation. In a recent policy statement, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) noted that elevated interest rates and increased foreign exchange reserves have ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tanzania
... many essential services rely heavily on foreign support to sustain their operations. In the 2023/24 fiscal year, Tanzania was the second-largest recipient of USAID health funding in Africa ($337m) while ranking 10th in overall USAID ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
... Concurrently, sustained expansions in trade and the financial and ICT industries will uphold strong tertiary sector growth. By contrast, subdued cocoa production will hamper Côte d’Ivoire’s agricultural sector. Ultimately, we forecast real GDP growth of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mauritius
... economic growth outlooks while flagging that the US Fed has followed a more cautious approach than markets were expecting. We expect the Fed to deliver only one interest rate cut this year (in December), instead ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
... the oil sector. Elevated inflation, fiscal consolidation efforts, and continued dry weather conditions thwart the potential for higher real GDP growth. We forecast economic growth to ease to 2.9% in 2025 from 4.5% in 2024. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
... FX pressures in 2024, while strong coffee export receipts provided further hard-currency reprieve. Authorities accessed a third-tranche disbursal in January, bringing the cumulative disbursements under the front-loaded ECF to $1.6bn. The ECF outlines that Ethiopia's ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
... rose in the final quarter of 2024, the production guidance for 2025 was lowered significantly. Based on these developments, we forecast Botswana's overall diamond production to decline by a further 11.7% in 2025, compared with ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cameroon
... the year. The budget also plans to reduce subsidies. While this is socially unpopular, it would pave the way for the state to invest more in new roads and railways and to support projects in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
... expected reopening of a uranium mine in September. However, the economy continues to be plagued by high inflation, rising public debt (which constrains fiscal spending), and forex and fuel shortages. As a result, we have ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
... diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertainty over a looming global trade war. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
... electricity subsectors. We expect economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2025 (from 2.1% in 2024), the highest figure in almost a decade and boosted by phase two of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP-II). Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
... be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. If Algeria's oil output returns to normal levels beyond Q1, even if only gradually, this would be positive. Nevertheless, our projection ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
... Below-average rainfall is predicted over H1 2025, which could diminish crop harvests with a concomitant increase in Rwanda's food import requirements. As a result, we expect agricultural output and exports to decline this year. There ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
... Economic conditions are mixed and modest positive momentum remains the order of the day. We have left South Africa's 2025 real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 1.5%, more than double the 2024 estimate of 0.7%. Read More
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