Category: Banking
Africa Banking
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
... Africa The budgetary estimates presented in South Africa's 2024 mini-budget are marginally worse than those in the 2024 Budget. Nonetheless, favourable political changes have eased risk perceptions, which could lower the interest paid on debt. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
... to slow in the second half of 2024, we still project the economy to expand by 5.0% this year. Inflation in 2024 should ease to 22.5% from 39.2% in 2023, while another policy rate cut ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
... pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipeline has been targeted by anti-junta rebels while neighbouring Benin refuses to avail its port for crude exports. Benin has little to gain ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
... and private sector activity, with real GDP growth forecast to rise from 3.4% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2026. Real GDP growth is forecast to decline again during 2027-2035 to an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
... Facility (ECF) on July 29. Authorities accessed a second-tranche disbursal in October, bringing the cumulative disbursements under the front-loaded ECF to $1.3bn. The ECF disbursals and World Bank facilities alleviated some acute FX pressures. The ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
... by phase two of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP-II). Although we expect economic growth to rebound in H2 2024, we have lowered our forecast for average economic growth in 2024 to 2.3% from the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
... the agricultural sector, and high inflation and fuel shortages are curbing private consumption growth. We forecast a modest rebound in real GDP growth in 2025 on the back of more favourable weather conditions and positive ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
... is holding on thanks to a surge in gold prices, a rebound in timber production, and support from the IMF. Given targeted measures from the IMF and base effects, we envisage a stronger economic growth ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde
... y/y) sectors. However, due to the high base, growth is expected to slow in the year's second half. Due to the strong performance in H1, we have raised our economic growth forecast for 2024 to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
... now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated previously), and an additional 3.7% decline is expected in 2025. Lower oil output will weigh on economic growth. Brent crude ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
... address to the nation. Given Algeria’s dependency on the hydrocarbon sector and recent challenging developments within the sector, Mr Tebboune will not have the perfect platform at the start of this second term to chase ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
... the largest recipient of FDI as foreign banks acquired several domestic banks. Other sectors that received notable FDI injections are the ICT, energy, manufacturing, and tourism sectors. The World Bank's Business Ready (B-READY) report, released ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
... economy has turned a corner, largely underpinned by several critical economic reforms initiated in March this year. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Egypt in October to strengthen trade and investment ties between ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo
... this time frame include structural reforms, key investments in the industrial sector, and a rebound in consumer spending. Conversely, the government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation drive alongside subdued global demand will dampen Togo’s economic growth potential. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
... exports and the devastating local drought took their toll. The outlook for mining is mixed. While diamond prices continue to languish, uranium output at a resuscitated mine is expected to pick up and investments in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
... surge in gold prices throughout 2024 has provided a silver lining. By the end of Q3 2024, the price of gold had reached an overall average of $2,295.5/oz, reflecting an annual increase of 18.8%. The ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
... we forecast average annual growth of 6.2% for 2024 and 2025. Robust investment growth underpins our positive outlook: both public and private entities have invested heavily in the expansion of Benin’s industrial base. These investments ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia
... 2023, supported by sound performances in the agricultural, telecommunications, and construction sectors. Accordingly, we have revised our 2024 growth projection higher to 5.1% from 4.4%. The all-important tourism sector continues to recover, but international arrivals ... Read More
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Tunisia In-depth PEST Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Tunisia through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Tunisia through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
... are improving, tourist arrivals still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Increasing competitiveness in the international tourism market is putting pressure on the local industry, and we expect this to have an impact on real GDP ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia
... (Isie) announced that it was ignoring a court order and rejecting the candidacies of three candidates, leaving only three (of whom one was arrested on the same day and another on September 18). The development ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
... oil operators and the government, and uncertainty around the new political leadership – following presidential elections in May 2024 – could prevent another surge in private oil investment growth in the short run. Since June, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
... the CBL is now split between factions that follow the instructions of the country’s two rival governments. The faction in active control lacks access to the CBL’s hard currency deposits, with the result that letters ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
... Given that over 80% of Burundians are employed in the agricultural sector, we expect disposable incomes and consumption spending to deteriorate this year. Flood damage also spoiled perishable goods and exacerbated product shortages, leading to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
... due to a lack of new projects coming on stream, while widespread drought will curb agricultural production. On the other hand, Mozambique’s real GDP growth will get a boost from increased infrastructure spending and lower ... Read More
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