Category: Banking
Africa Banking
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
... attributed to improved Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) receipts and reduced capital spending. However, in the following fiscal year, recurrent spending is expected to rise considerably, at a time when Sacu revenues will decline, leading ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
... Bank of Libya (CBL) led to a political crisis in mid-August and a sharp drop in oil output to 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September from almost 1 million bpd in August. Initially, we ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
... blow to investor and business confidence. The turn of events has raised the risk of lower economic growth next year as some fixed investments will likely be deferred. Before the election, the economy was already ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
... Concurrently, the secondary sector – which has been flagged as a key source of growth due to oil and gas projects in the country – expanded by just 1.0% in H1. The start of oil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
... country is still somewhat in a state of euphoria. The outlook for the next few months, when compared to the same period last year, is a world apart. Admittedly, the country still faces several headwinds ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia
... with the IMF, the Parliament passed a law that will force the central bank to finance the country's fiscal deficit in 2025, to the tune of $2.2bn. This follows an injection of about $3.0bn from ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
... realities continue to bite, and the latest national accounts data shows that South Africa’s growth prospects remain flimsy. Following an unexpected economic contraction in Q3, we have lowered our growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
... a higher stake on those meteorological forecasts that warn of a weak and short-lived La Niña. If these warnings materialise, Zambia could face prolonged, expensive power imports, a weaker recovery in food supply, and elevated ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
... ease steadily throughout 2025, dipping below 10.0% y/y by Q1 2026. The country’s external position should remain sustainable due to strong export growth, supported by rising gold, oil, and cocoa output. On the other hand, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
... sector, widespread drought in the southeast, and intermittent foreign exchange shortages. Elevated inflation and fiscal consolidation are also thwarting the potential for higher overall economic growth. We forecast real GDP growth to moderate from 3.4% ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
... strained fiscal spending, adding to pressure on the currency. As a result, Zimbabwean authorities devalued the ZiG by nearly 43% in September, narrowing the gap between the official and black-market exchange rates. While this adjustment ... Read More
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Botswana In-depth PEST Insights
... analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Botswana through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Botswana through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic issues. Understand customer ... Read More
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Macroeconomic Outlook Report: South Africa
... and hotels (14.0%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are forecast to grow by 5.7%, 5.7%, and 6.0%, respectively, in 2024. Johannesburg and Cape Town generated 19.6% of the country’s GDP and were home to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
... of 2.7% this year, thanks to solid performances in the secondary sector (particularly mining) and the services sector. Growth in gross fixed capital formation indicates that major infrastructure and industrial projects – the 'grand structuring ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
... will improve the country’s fiscal position, while strong export growth will result in a stronger external position. While inflation is projected to average 3.8% this year, price pressures are stabilising, and inflation should be notably ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Reunion
... industry. France's new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, has proposed major budget cuts to reduce the country's deficit, including less funding for overseas territories. This would reduce construction spending and renovation of social housing, weighing on ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
... pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipeline has been targeted by anti-junta rebels while neighbouring Benin refuses to avail its port for crude exports. Benin has little to gain ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
... and private sector activity, with real GDP growth forecast to rise from 3.4% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2026. Real GDP growth is forecast to decline again during 2027-2035 to an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
... Facility (ECF) on July 29. Authorities accessed a second-tranche disbursal in October, bringing the cumulative disbursements under the front-loaded ECF to $1.3bn. The ECF disbursals and World Bank facilities alleviated some acute FX pressures. The ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
... by phase two of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP-II). Although we expect economic growth to rebound in H2 2024, we have lowered our forecast for average economic growth in 2024 to 2.3% from the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
... the agricultural sector, and high inflation and fuel shortages are curbing private consumption growth. We forecast a modest rebound in real GDP growth in 2025 on the back of more favourable weather conditions and positive ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
... is holding on thanks to a surge in gold prices, a rebound in timber production, and support from the IMF. Given targeted measures from the IMF and base effects, we envisage a stronger economic growth ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde
... y/y) sectors. However, due to the high base, growth is expected to slow in the year's second half. Due to the strong performance in H1, we have raised our economic growth forecast for 2024 to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
... now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated previously), and an additional 3.7% decline is expected in 2025. Lower oil output will weigh on economic growth. Brent crude ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
... address to the nation. Given Algeria’s dependency on the hydrocarbon sector and recent challenging developments within the sector, Mr Tebboune will not have the perfect platform at the start of this second term to chase ... Read More
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