Category: General Government
General Government market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
We slightly tweaked Taiwan's 2025 GDP growth to 3.1% from 3.2%, to reflect the impact of the earlier-than-expected tariffs from the US on China. Another uncertainty is the potential 25% tariff hike on the US' semiconductor imports proposed by US President Trump, though few details have been ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mauritius
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Hungary by 0.2ppts to 1.5% this year and by 0.4ppts in 2026 to 3.2%. The downward revisions for this year reflect poor high-frequency readings for December, indicating the economy entered 2025 on a soft footing. The cut to the 2026 forecast is a consequ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Monetary authorities surprised with a 50-bps interest rate increase during its first meeting of the year. Committee members stated that central banks around the world are following divergent stances based on their own inflation and economic growth outlooks while flagging that the US Fed has followed ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've kept our forecast for GDP growth in Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, although we see some upside risk given signs of slightly stronger activity at the turn of the year. The gradual slowdown in consumer spending is continuing according to credit card statistics, and we think the adjustment ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey unchanged at 1.9% as we expect economic momentum will remain downbeat over the near term. This follows the Q3 GDP data release, which showed an expansion of 2.1% y/y, matching our projection. The consumer adjustment rem ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Jordan to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. Although the ongoing regional conflict has caused tourism income to decline by 4.3% y/y over the first nine months of this year, stronger performances in the manufacturing sector and net ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to a 2.0% contraction, and expect a 2.6% expansion next year. Our revision reflects an extension by OPEC+ of the voluntary oil production cuts until at least January due to concerns over weak demand. We expect the cuts w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Afghanistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Afghanistan We've slashed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Afghanistan by 9.3ppts to a meagre 0.4% expansion. Although over 23mn people – more than half of Afghanistan's population – still require humanitarian assistance, the UN has only received 30% of i ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nicaragua
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nicaragua We’ve raised our GDP growth forecast for Nicaragua by 0.8 ppts to 3.2% for this year, but we’ve cut our 2025 projection by 0.6 ppts to 1.6%. We expect that private consumption and investment will drive the economic slowdown next year amid slowing dow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso Burkina Faso’s fragile security situation has been compounded by persistent challenges, especially related to poor weather conditions and policy uncertainty in the mining sector. However, the surge in gold prices throughout 2024 has provided a sil ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecast - Lebanon
Macro - Country Economic Forecast - Lebanon High-frequency data underscore the continued decline in Lebanon's economy, though there are tentative signs of an improvement in momentum. The May PMI survey climbed to the highest level since 2016; that said, it remains below the neutral 50-mark, indi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine
Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine Following a contraction by about 45% in March, the economy started to adjust in April, judging from high-frequency alternative sources of data. But this adjustment appears to have plateaued in May, as broken supply chains, destroyed infrastructure, displaced pop ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Incumbent president Emmanuel Macron will face Marine Le Pen in the second round of French elections at the end of this month. The results of the first round show the unprecedented fragmentation of public opinion amid a clear rise of the extremes on the far right a ... Read More
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