Publisher: Oxford Economics Published: Last 6 Months-
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
We've nudged down our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.1ppt to 1.1% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. We expect the economy will be supported by gradual improvements in consumption alongside real income gains, but weaker external demand will weigh on the growth. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali
Mali's real GDP growth last year surprised to the upside at 5.0% – higher than our prediction of 4.6%. Robust fixed investment inflows were the largest driver of the higher annual print, while a slowdown in exports dragged on growth. We forecast real GDP growth to slow over the next two years, r ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania by 0.2ppts to 2.6%. This reflects the impact of expected reciprocal across-the-board tariffs between the US and EU from Q2. Given the precarious state of the public finances, there is little scope for a delay in planned fiscal consolidation ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
In light of the latest events, we have increased our probability of a "bad" ceasefire for Ukraine – one that leaves Ukraine without strong security guarantees and vulnerable to future re-escalation from Russia – to 50% from 20% previously. Under this scenario, there is a short-term "p ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
The ongoing war in Sudan is forecast to trigger the country's eighth consecutive annual economic contraction this year. After nearly two years of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudan's main paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the chances of an end to the war ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan
We slightly tweaked Taiwan's 2025 GDP growth to 3.1% from 3.2%, to reflect the impact of the earlier-than-expected tariffs from the US on China. Another uncertainty is the potential 25% tariff hike on the US' semiconductor imports proposed by US President Trump, though few details have been ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
The threat of US tariffs continues to loom large over the European economy, after President Trump vowed to impose 25% tariffs on imports from the EU. It is too early to assess what the economic consequences would be given the uncertainty around what the US administration will ultimately do and what ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
Due to the changing external conditions, we have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Malaysia by 0.3ppts to 3.7%. That would be a slowdown from the 5.1% expansion in 2024 and short of the government's 4%-5% target. Despite the slowdown, growing inflationary risks and currency pres ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
After an export-driven outperformance in Q4, Hong Kong's economy is set to slow this year. We expect GDP growth to decelerate to 2.1% in 2025, from 2.6% last year. Risks to this outlook are evenly balanced. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Thailand by 0.5ppts to 2.5%, the same pace as in 2024. The downgrade to our outlook follows a greater-than-expected slowdown in economic growth momentum in Q4 last year. ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecast - Japan
We've nudged down our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.1ppt to 1.1% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. We expect the economy will be supported by gradual improvements in consumption alongside real income gains, but weaker external demand will weigh on the growth. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
We have nudged up our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to 2.5% y/y after stronger-than-expected December activity. Recent data suggest an improving consumer outlook, as spending appears to have remained resilient towards the end of 2024, despite large rises in regulated electricity prices. Inflat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
We've lowered our GDP growth forecast for the Czech Republic by 0.1ppt to 2.3% in 2025. We expect reciprocal blanket 10% tariffs between the US and the EU from Q2. These will have only minor impact on growth in 2025, as they will be offset by looser monetary policy and a pause in fiscal consolid ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
We've cut our sporting event-adjusted GDP growth forecast for Switzerland by 0.1ppt to 1.4% in 2026. Our update reflects the indirect effects of recent US political developments, which are likely to damage business confidence and reduce global trade. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
We expect Singapore's GDP to grow by a downwardly revised 2.8% this year, previously 3%, a slowdown from the 4.4% expansion in 2024. The downgrade largely reflects a higher base for comparison after 2021-2024 figures were revised upward. But we foresee momentum slowing, which may ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus
We raised our GDP growth forecast for Belarus by 0.4ppts to 2.4% y/y for 2025 from 2% y/y. Our revisions reflect continuing momentum in domestic demand, exports, and private consumption. This trend is set to moderate as exports slow in H2 as Russian import-substitution weighs on exports from Belarus ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia at 2.1%, as Q4 data was in line with our forecast, but we see some upside risks to consumption from the significant minimum wage increase. Investment and exports should continue their strong momentum and drive growth in the coming quarters. Inflation ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for mainland Norway by 0.2ppts to 1.3%. The economy ended 2024 with a surprise contraction, but we think this was driven by volatile inventories rather than weaker domestic demand. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Cyprus by 0.3ppts to 2.4%, though this is still one of the fastest rates of expansion we project in the Eurozone this year. The downgrade was prompted by a soft end to 2024 and the likely start of a trade war with the US. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.9ppts to 3.3%. A strong end to 2024, driven by high pharmaceutical output, significantly lifts the annual growth forecast this year due to the strong carryover. However, our assessment weakened as US tariffs and the EU's response will impac ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
We forecast Qatar's GDP will grow by 2.1% this year, following an estimated 1.9% expansion in 2024. The January PMI reading showed the first decline in new work orders in more than a year, which pulled the index down to 50.2 from 52.9 in December. Despite the weak start, we continue to see susta ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
At the margin, it's possible that the UK government's decision to fund higher defence spending through cuts to the foreign aid budget will provide some extra breathing space against its borrowing rule. But if NATO requires members to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP, a bigger rethink of t ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
First-quarter GDP is tracking weakly at 1% annualized, but we think a lot of the swings in the data are driven by temporary factors, including the unseasonably cold weather in January and the front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
We've revised our forecast for Luxembourg in 2025 and now expect the economy to grow by 2.2%, 0.3ppts lower than previously. This reflects the negative economic impact we expect from US tariffs and the repercussions in the Eurozone. We expect growth in business investment to be substantially low ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh
We have cut our real GDP growth forecast for Bangladesh to 4.2% during FY2024/25 (ending in June 2025), down from 5.5% previously. This is the same pace as last year, as revised data for FY2023/24 show the economy only expanded by 4.2%. The new fiscal year has started on a much weaker footing due to ... Read More
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