Publisher: Oxford Economics Published: Last 3 Years-
Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria During the past quarter, Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune won the presidential election by a landslide. He once again repeated some of his very ambitious economic plans in his address to the nation. Given Algeria’s dependency on the hydrocarbon secto ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast slightly for the Czech Republic to 1.1% due to historical data revisions. Although economic activity continues to improve, the recovery remains patchy, with manufacturing and construction still constrai ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium We forecast the Belgian economy will grow by 1.1% this year and 1.5% next, as the impact of monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. We expect inflation will average 3.0% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, thanks to lower international energy prices and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland We've trimmed our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.1ppt to 3.2% and have kept our projection for next year at 3.6%. Following a strong sequential pick-up in GDP over Q2, we estimate the recovery continued in Q3, but at a slower pace. We expe ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy We've cut our Italian GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 0.6% for 2024 to reflect recent national accounts downgrades to growth from last year and Q1 2024. Although we've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 1.0%, we recognise some downside risk ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland We've cut our GDP forecasts for Finland by 0.3ppts to a 0.5% contraction this year and by 0.4ppts to 1.5% growth in 2025. Finland's statistics office revised down historical GDP and components, resulting in weaker growth this year. We've also ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt A slew of data releases during the past month has shown that Egypt is still dealing with the hangover from its economic crisis. However, we believe that the economy has turned a corner, largely underpinned by several critical economic reforms initiated in March th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Brazil by 0.4ppts to 3.2% to account for the more resilient momentum showing in labour market indicators. Aggregate real earnings, although cooling, will still rise over 6% this year, while households he ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo Following real GDP growth of 6.4% last year, we forecast economic growth to average 4.7% p.a. over the 2024-2025 period. Factors that will support economic activity over this time frame include structural reforms, key investments in the industrial sector, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada With economic momentum fading, the labour market softening, and inflation falling below the 2% target in September, we now think the Bank of Canada (BoC) will front-load policy normalization with 50bp rate cuts in October and December. Despite subdued near ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We've kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal unchanged at 1.7% for 2024 and 1.9% for 2025. Although growth disappointed at 0.2% q/q in Q2 2024, we think the outlook remains solid. Improving real disposable incomes and the EU's Recovery and Re ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We've maintained our GDP growth forecasts for Sweden at 0.8% for this year and 2.2% for 2025. Although activity has been sluggish, we expect it will pick up pace in the next few quarters due to household real income gains, easing financial conditions, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA Our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Turkey is unchanged at 2.7% and we see the expansion slowing to 1.9% next year. Recent data corroborate our pessimism on the near-term outlook. We think output shrank in sequential q/q terms in Q3, as the domestic economy buckles under tight ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana Botswana’s diamond industry has continued to struggle after a poor start to the year: it contracted by 6.5% q/q in Q2, after a sharp decline of 16.6% q/q in Q1 2024. Recent diamond sales and export data have also revealed a concerning downward trend, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Australia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Australia There was relatively little new information during the past month. Survey and confidence indicators remain subdued, weighed down by listless growth and ongoing cost-of-living pressures. The economy is lacking a clear growth engine, and the private secto ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom We've cut our forecasts for UK GDP growth by 0.1ppt to 1% for 2024 and by 0.2ppts to 1.5% for 2025 to reflect recent national accounts revisions. The downgrade to this year is due to growth in Q2 being revised lower. We expect growth to be soft ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We've kept our 2024 eurozone GDP growth forecast at 0.8% and cut our 2025 growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 1.2%, mainly to reflect a downgrade to the German outlook. We still think inflation will average 2.3% in 2024 and undershoot the European Central B ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda The National Bank of Rwanda's latest monetary policy and financial stability report indicated that FDI surged by 63.5% y/y in H1 2024 to $289m. The financial sector remained the largest recipient of FDI as foreign banks acquired several domestic banks. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia Following a strong start to the year in Q1, economic growth slowed in Q2 2024 due to weaker mining and agricultural output. Softer demand for Namibia's commodity exports and the devastating local drought took their toll. The outlook for mining is m ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso Burkina Faso’s fragile security situation has been compounded by persistent challenges, especially related to poor weather conditions and policy uncertainty in the mining sector. However, the surge in gold prices throughout 2024 has provided a sil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin Benin’s economy rebounded strongly from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, expanding by 6.6% p.a. over the 2021-2023 period. This impressive performance is set to persist, and we forecast average annual growth of 6.2% for 2024 and 2025. Robust investm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Despite a small respite from positive German industrial production numbers in August, most economic indicators in Europe continue to point to a persistent lack of momentum. Near-term prospects remain muted, as Europe's largest economy remains mired in a slump. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The September data on consumer and producer prices were mixed, but it doesn't alter our near-term forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bps at each of its two remaining meetings this year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland We kept our GDP growth forecasts for Ireland unchanged at -1.3% for 2024 and 4.4% for 2025. GDP fell 1% q/q in Q2, a fifth decline in six quarters. Our projections for H2 anticipate a solid rebound, but this is far from guaranteed, leaving risks skewed to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain We've lifted our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Spain to 2.9% to reflect a revision to national accounts which revealed economic momentum is stronger than previously thought. Despite signs of a moderate slowdown in Q3, Spain will remain one of the fastest ... Read More
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