Publisher: Oxford Economics Published: Last Month-
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 1.9%. Under President Trump, higher investment in the US and a strong US dollar will provide a boost to exports next year. However, economic policy uncertainty will undermine South Korea's inv ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We upgraded our 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy We forecast GDP growth for Italy at 0.9% for 2025, a boost from the 0.4% expansion we expect this year. We've recently downgraded our 2024 forecast based on relatively subdued Q3 growth. We project inflation will pick up to average 1.9% next year, as th ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom As expected, UK CPI inflation rose sharply in October, and in the short-term the clear direction of travel for inflation will be upward. Despite a raft of public appearances by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee this week, there was little i ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Our eurozone outlook for the next couple of years was unchanged in our second November release, as the adjustments were mainly on US tariffs to Asian country. The baseline remains an economy that gradually improves on the back of stronger consumption and easing mo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam We expect Vietnam's GDP will grow by 6.7% this year and 6.5% next. Strong industrial production in July and August offset the weakness in September this year despite the impact from Typhoon Yagi. Manufacturing will continue to be the primary engine ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia We maintain our 2024 GDP forecast for Malaysia at 5.6% and expect growth will slow down to 4.3% in 2025. The strong momentum exhibited through much of this year is unlikely to persist while the low base from a year ago drops out of the comparison. Growin ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Belarus, by 1.4ppts to 3.6% y/y for 2024 and by 0.5ppts to 2.0% y/y for 2025. Our revisions reflect an upside surprise in domestic demand and increased exports. Strong momentum in private consumption, owing to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kyrgyzstan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kyrgyzstan We expect Kyrgyzstan's economy will expand by a solid 3.7% in 2025, building on several years of strong growth. The Russia-Ukraine war has bolstered GDP growth in recent years. But although the conflict will continue to provide some support, the ec ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco The Moroccan economy is holding up well. Despite a poor cereal harvest, which has constrained primary sector output, the economy is on track to post real GDP growth of 2.7% this year, thanks to solid performances in the secondary sector (particularly mining) and ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the UK by 0.1ppt to 1.4% but have upgraded our 2026 forecast by 0.1ppt to 1.7%. The small downgrade to 2025 reflects the carryover effect of softer-than-expected data for late-2024, while the upgrade t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany GDP expanded by 0.2% q/q in Q3, according to a flash estimate aided by private and government consumption, but the overall level of output in earlier quarters was lower due to data revisions. We maintain our call of a 0.1% contraction this year and don ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Moldova
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Moldova Moldova's GDP growth has gathered pace in H2 2024 and will likely pick up further next year, supported by additional EU funding and growing demand in the EU, Moldova's main trading partner. We expect growth will rise to about 3.9% in both 2025 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Laos
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Laos We've reduced our GDP growth forecasts for Laos to 3.8% for 2025. The downgrade stems from inflation remaining stickier than expected, fuelling emigration to neighbouring countries, which has exacerbated existing challenges for human capital. We anticipa ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Puerto Rico
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Puerto Rico We lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.2%. Federal funds from disaster-relief programs and pandemic stimulus that buoyed infrastructure projects and private consumption will continue to fade. Still, resilient demand from mainland ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Finland at 1.5%. We think cyclical tailwinds of real income gains, lower interest rates, and stronger external demand will support growth next year. Finland's exports to the US amount to 3% of GDP. But o ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Dominica
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Dominica We have doubled our 2024 GDP forecast for Dominica to 4.2% and expect robust growth of 3.1% next year. Our forecast reflects strong near-term prospects due a major recovery in tourism, high public investment, and strong Citizenship-by-Investment revenues ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bosnia and Herzegovina We expect GDP growth for Bosnia and Herzegovina will pick up to 2.7% in 2025, following a 2.2% expansion this year. We've revised down our 2024 forecast by 0.2ppts as private consumption is taking more time to rebound than we expected, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America
Analysis by Region - Latin America We've raised our 2024 GDP forecast for Suriname slightly to 2.3% from 2.1%, but cut our 2025 projection to 2.0% from 3.0%. The IMF projects GDP growth at 3.0% for both years. Our outlook is more pessimistic as we expect harsher fiscal and monetary consolidation ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Kitts and Nevis
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Kitts and Nevis We forecast GDP growth for St Kitts and Nevis of 3.6% this year and expect a solid 3.2% expansion in 2025. We think growth will stay robust over the medium term due to recovering tourism receipts, high investment, and ongoing Citizenship-by-In ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Fiji
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Fiji We expect GDP growth for Fiji will ease to 2.7% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 following a rapid two-year recovery. This reflects lower-than-expected merchandise exports, as demand from Australia and New Zealand moderated. Meanwhile, tourism earnings remain res ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mauritius
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mauritius The snap election on November 10 dealt another blow to incumbents in Africa. Former Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam and his Alliance for Change coalition won 61.3% of the vote, toppling Prime Minister Pravin Jugnauth and the Alliance Lepep coalition, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.3ppts to 3.3% and trimmed our 2024 estimate by 0.5ppts to 2.7%. Our downward revision for this year is based on soft activity over Q3 with as the economy shrank on the back of weak industry and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast for China at 4.4%, based on the latest economic developments and policy expectations. But we've adjusted our 2026-2029 growth forecasts to reflect the impact from the US presidential election. We currently assume ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets So far, the Trump victory has created ripples rather than waves in emerging market assets. Those ripples are getting bigger, however, and we think Trump-related downside risks are not priced in sufficiently. ... Read More
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