This report analyzes the 4Q24 wireless infrastructure market worldwide and covers 2G, 3G, 4Gand 5G radio access network (RAN) and core network nodes. It presents historical data from 2016to 2024, quarterly market size and vendor market shares, and a detailed market forecast through2030 for 2G/3G/4G/5G RAN, including Open vRAN, and core networks (EPC, vEPC, and 5GC),for each region (North America, Europe Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, Caribbean LatinAmerica). The historical data accounts for the sales of more than 30 wireless infrastructurevendors, including a few vendors that shared confidential sales data with TÉRAL RESEARCH.The market forecast is based on a model correlating wireless infrastructure vendor sales with 20years of service provider network rollout pattern analysis, and upgrade and expansion plans.
- ABSTRACT
- KEY TAKEAWAYS: SOLID 4Q24 BUT FULL YEAR DOWN, THE WORST IS BEHIND
- THE ROBUST 4Q24 WAS NOT ENOUGH TO BRING BACK THE FULL YEAR TO GROWTH TERRITORY BUT THE WORST IS BEHIND
- LIKE IN 3Q24, NORTH AMERICA MADE THE QUARTER
- OPEN RAN, 5G AND EPC WERE THE BRIGHTEST SPOTS OF ALL CATEGORIES
- A SHARP 4G SPENDING DROP SUNK THE 2024 MARKET $1.5B BELOW OUR FORECAST; 5G WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET IT
- EVEN WITH A SLOWER PACE OF ROLLOUTS, 5G REMAINS THE BRIGHT SPOT
- A faster migration to 5G SA is greatly desired
- The potential for LTE-A and VoLTE upgrades remains phenomenal
- IN 4Q24, NOKIA INCREASES ITS SHARE AT THE EXPENSE OF #1 HUAWEI AND #2 ERICSSON
- For 4Q24 RAN market share, both huawei and Ericsson lost share
- IN CORE NETWORKS, HUAWEI AND ZTE COMBINED COMMAND A 60% MARKET SHARE, ERICSSON STAYED #2
- The prolonged slow migration to 5G SA is over, a PICKUP started in 3Q24 and new contracts were awarded in 4Q24
- We did such a good work in designing the EPC that the move to 5G core is hard to justify!
- FOR 2024 TOTAL MARKET SHARE, HUAWEI STAYED #1 FOLLOWED BY ERICSSON, BOTH INCREASED THEIR SHARE
- AS RIGHTLY PREDICTED, 2024 WAS THE THIRD YEAR OF THE DISINVESTMENT CYCLE, 2025 WILL BE UP
- LIKE 4G, 5G WILL HAVE A LONG TAIL…
- …BUT UNLIKE PREVIOUS CYCLES, THERE IS NO NEW G TO CREATE A NEW INVESTMENT CYCLE
- Although 5G remains the bright spot, it won’t be big enough to offset the 4G decline
- Factoring in the 4G decline, our model produced a lower base forecast
- 2025 IS LOOKING UP!
- North America will experience the strongest growth this year
- Post-5G peak, all other regions will see moderate growth or flatness
- OUR LONG-TERM WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET FORECAST POINTS TO A SLIGHT DECLINING TREND
- Current conditions point to a slowly declining pattern through the end of the decade
- FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE VIBRANT SECONDHAND MARKET FOR 4G AND 5G EQUIPMENT COMING FROM THE REMOVAL
- OF THE CHINESE VENDORS IN SPECIFIC COUNTRIES THAT SWAMPS OTHER MARKETS
- With Germany gearing up to remove Huawei’s 5G equipment, we expect another cycle of used kits to flood the secondhand market in 2025-2026
- AFTER THE PAUSE, OPEN RAN WILL START TO RAMP UP THIS YEAR
- Geopolitics fueled both the open RAN ecosystem and traditional 5G RAN rollouts led by Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung
- HOME TO THE WORLD’S LARGEST WIRELESS NETWORK FOOTPRINTS, ASIA PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE LARGEST MARKET
- NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE WORLD’S SECOND LARGEST MARKET
- AFTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, EMEA WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH 2030
- CALA IS BOUNCING BACK WITH POTENTIAL GROWTH AHEAD
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