PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics 2025-2026

Simba Information’s PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics, 2025-2026 provides a thorough analysis of shifting student demographics and enrollment patterns. The report details declining birth rates, expanding school choice initiatives, and mounting financial pressures on public schools. It explores how these factors are shaping the future of education and impacting school districts, policymakers, and education providers. With enrollment projected to decline by 3.7% through 2031, the report offers actionable insights on how stakeholders can adapt to a rapidly evolving market.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key Findings
METHODOLOGY
Data Sources and Collection
Data Analysis and Synthesis
Scope and Limitations
CHAPTER 1: ENROLLMENT TRENDS
PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS STEADY IN 2023
Figure 1-1. Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, Fall 1990 Through Fall 2023
Trends by Region and State
Table 1-1. Percent Change in Public School Enrollment by Region, 2013 – 2023
Table 1-2. Change in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools Enrollment by State, 2013 to 2023, 2019 to 2023, and 2022 to 2023
Grade-Level Trends
Table 1-3. Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by Level and Grade, 2018 – 2031 (in thousands)
Grade-Level Projections 2023-2031
Table 1-4. Change in Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by Level and Grade, 2018 – 2031
Table 1-5. Percentage of Students Enrolled in Public PreK-12 Schools by Grade Level Band, 2018, 2022, and 2031
Future Projections
Figure 1-2. Projected Enrollments, Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, 2024 – 2031 (in thousands)
ENROLLMENTS AT ALTERNATIVE SCHOOLS GROW
Table 1-6. Percentage of PreK-12 Students Attending Public, Private, and Public Charter Schools, Fall 2011 vs. Fall 2021
Demographic Differences
Table 1-7. Percentage of Public, Private, and Public Charter Schools by Race/Ethnicity, Fall 2021
REASONS FOR THE TRENDS AWAY FROM PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Declining Birth Rates and Immigration
Quality of Public School Education
School Choice
PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics 2024-2025
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The Future
NUMBER AND LOCATION OF SCHOOLS
Figure 1-3. Number of Public and Elementary and Secondary Schools by School Type and Charter, 2023-2024 School Year
Table 1-8. Number of Public Schools and Average Number of Students Enrolled by School Level, 2023-2024 School Year
Table 1-9. Percentage of Public, Charter, and Private Schools by Type of Community, Fall 2021
CHAPTER 2: GENERAL POPULATION TRENDS
Figure 2-1. Annual Percentage Change in US Population, July 1, 2000 to July 1, 2024
Figure 2-2. US Annual Population Change, Natural Increase and International Migration, July 1, 2000, to July 1, 2024 (in millions)
BIRTH AND FERTILITY RATES
Reasons for the Declines
IMMIGRATION
UNDER-18 POPULATION TRENDS
Table 2-1. Number of Children Ages 0-17 in the US by Age, 2019 – 2022 (in millions)
Table 2-2. Number of Children Ages 0-17 in the US by Age, Projected, 2023 – 2029 (in millions)
POPULATION TRENDS BY STATE
Table 2-3. Population and Population Trends by State, 2024
Table 2-4. Percent of Population 0-18 by State, 2023
CHAPTER 3: THE PUBLIC SCHOOL LANDSCAPE
RACE AND ETHNICITY
Table 3-1. Public School Enrollments by Race/Ethnicity, Selected Years, 2013 – 2023 (in thousands)
Figure 3-1. Public School Enrollments by Race/Ethnicity, Selected Years, 2013 – 2023
Table 3-2. Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by Level and Race/Ethnicity, 2023 (in thousands)
IMMIGRATION
State Trends
Table 3-3. Share of Public School Students from Immigrant Households and Top-Sending Countries by State, Fall 2021
Undocumented Immigration
ENGLISH LEARNERS
Table 3-4. English Learners (ELs) Enrolled in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, Fall 2011 through Fall 2021
Characteristics of English Learners
Table 3-5. English Learners by Race/Ethnicity, Fall 2021
POVERTY
Table 3-6. Number and Percentage of Public School Students Receiving Free or Reduced-Price Lunch, 2019-2020 to 2022-2023
PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics 2024-2025
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Title I
Table 3-7. Number and Percentage of Students Participating in Title I Programs, 2020-2021 School Year
Table 3-8. Number and Percentage of Students Participating in Title I Public Schoolwide or Targeted Assistance Programs by Student Characteristics, 2020 – 2021
Table 3-9. Number of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, Traditional and Charter, Eligible and Participating in Title I Programs, 2021-2022 School Year
HOMELESSNESS
Figure 3-2. Homeless Students in US Public Schools, 2020-2021 to 2022-2023
Table 3-10. Percent of Homeless Students, by Race/Ethnicity, 2022-2023 School Year
Table 3-11. Percent of Students Who Experienced Homelessness, by Subgroup, 2020-2021 through 2022-2023 School Years
CHRONIC ABSENTEEISM
Figure 3-3. Percentage of Schools with Significant Chronic Absenteeism by Level, 2017-2018 to 2021-2022
Figure 3-4. Percentage of Students Exhibit Chronic Absenteeism by Student Populations, 2022-2023 School Year
IDEA AND SPECIAL NEEDS
Table 3-12. Children 3 to 21 Years Old Served Under IDEA, Part B, 2018-2019 through 2022-2023
Table 3-13. Percentage of Children 3 to 21 Years Old Served Under IDEA Part B by Selected Disability, 2018-2019 through 2022-2023
GRADUATION RATES
Table 3-14. Number of High School Graduates, 2018-2019 Through 2022-2023
Table 3-15. Number and Distribution of Public High School Graduates by Race and Ethnicity, 2022 – 2023
Figure 3-5. National 4-Year Cohort Graduation Rate, 2021-2022 School Year
EARLY CHILDHOOD LEARNING
Figure 3-6. Percentage of 3- to 5-year-old Children Enrolled in Public or Private School, 2012 through 2022
Table 3-16. Percentage of 3- to 5-Year-Old Children Enrolled in School by Race/Ethnicity: Public vs. Private, Fall 2022
Figure 3-7. Percentage of 3- and 4-Year-Olds Enrolled in State-Funded Preschool, 2002 – 2023
Table 3-17. Percent of Population Enrolled in Early Childhood Education by Type of Public Program, 2022-2023 School Year
CHAPTER 4: ALTERNATIVES TO TRADITIONAL PUBLIC SCHOOLS
SCHOOL CHOICE DRIVES CHANGE
Figure 4-1. Number of School Choice Programs on the Books by Year, 1869 – 2024
Figure 4-2. Number of Students Participating in ESA, Tax-Credit ESA, Voucher, Tax-Credit Scholarship, and Refundable Tax Credit Programs, 1991 – 2025
PRIVATE SCHOOLS
Table 4-1. Private Elementary and Secondary Enrollment and Number of Schools by Level and Orientation, 2020-2021 School Year
PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics 2024-2025
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Figure 4-3. Private Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Orientation, 2020-2021 School Year
Catholic Schools
The Legal and Policy Debate Over Religious Charter Schools
CHARTER SCHOOLS
Table 4-2. Change in Enrollment, Charter versus Traditional District Public Schools, 2019-2020 to 2023-2024
Table 4-3. Charter School Enrollment Growth and Share by State, 2023 – 2024
Table 4-4. Public Charter vs. Non-Charter Enrollment Growth, One-Year and Five-Year, Black, White, and Hispanic Students, 2023 – 2024
HOMESCHOOLING
MICROSCHOOLING
DUAL ENROLLMENT
Table 4-5. Percentage of College Students Who Are Dual-Enrolled in High School by State, 2022-2023 School Year
Figure 4-4. Growth of Dual Enrollment, 1999 – 2021
CAREER AND TECHNICAL EDUCATION
Table 4-6. Percentage of Public High School Graduates Earning CTE Credits by Race/Ethnicity, 2019
Table 4-7. Percentage of Public High School Graduates Earning CTE Credits by Gender, 2019
VIRTUAL SCHOOLING
Table 4-8. Number of Virtual Schools by Grade Level, 2018-2019 to 2022-2023
Connectivity in Schools
Figure 4-5. Districts and Students Meeting 1 Mbps Per Student Goal, 2015 – 2023
CHAPTER 5: A LOOK AHEAD

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