Impact of the 2024 U.S. Election on Climate Change - September 2024 Edition

Impact of the 2024 U.S. Election on Climate Change - September 2024 Edition

This report examines the potential implications of the 2024 US election on climate policy and energy priorities. It explores how the election may influence policy continuity or change, with a focus on the competing agendas of the major presidential candidates. Current climate policies, driven by President Biden's administration, emphasize support for green technologies, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and a net-zero emissions target. In contrast, a potential shift in administration could lead to a re-emphasis on fossil fuel investments and regulatory rollbacks.

The report delves into the key challenges facing the energy sector, particularly infrastructure bottlenecks, regulatory hurdles, and the need for significant development to support a transition to cleaner energy. It also considers how global geopolitical dynamics, national security concerns, and international climate agreements play a role in shaping US climate policy.

Biden's record on climate includes continued investment in renewable energy and a commitment to global leadership in climate efforts. Trump’s potential return to office could lead to renewed focus on domestic fossil fuel industries and a retreat from international climate commitments, including the Paris Agreement.

The economic and environmental impact of US energy and climate policies is a central theme, with discussion on the shifting public priorities and the challenges facing infrastructure development, including opposition from landowners, communities, and financing difficulties. The report also covers the influence of global geopolitical events and how the US election outcome may affect national security in the context of climate change.

The report concludes with an analysis of the broader global implications of US energy policies, particularly their influence on global net-zero emissions efforts, investment trends, and the future of the oil and gas industry. It highlights the legal and regulatory risks involved, including climate litigation, compliance costs, and the uncertain future of methane and CO₂ restrictions under different administrations. The potential for reputational damage and demand shifts in the fossil fuel industry are also addressed, with an emphasis on how global leadership in climate efforts may shift depending on the outcome of the 2024 election.