Home Baking: US Market Trends & Opportunities, 2nd Edition

US Market Trends & Opportunities, 2nd Edition

Many consumers bake at home because they enjoy baking, like the smell of fresh baked foods in their home, and like to eat food fresh from the oven. Comfort and nostalgia are also important to home baking trends.

Similar to the clean label movement, distrust of “industrial food” has led some consumers to seek alternative food products and venues. More consumers are baking at home because they:think food baked at home is healthier or more nutritious

  • believe that home baked food tastes better
  • want to know where their food comes from
  • are able to fully customize the food they eat since they can choose the ingredients used in home baked goods and can decide what to leave out or include in a recipe
In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic had a significant effect on home baking activity. Many consumers began baking at home more as they spent more time at home for work or school and were looking to find new hobbies. Baking could provide some consumers with personal enjoyment or a more productive way to spend their time when they were stuck at home.

Though home baking activity has since leveled off as consumers have resumed more of their pre-COVID routines, higher levels of baking persist compared to 2019. Many consumers who began working from home in 2020 continue to work from home at least some of the time, giving them continued opportunities for home-based activities such as baking.

With a focus on “what’s next” and current consumer trends, Home Baking: US Trends and Opportunities is packed with insights about consumer trends, behavior, and motivations to help food producers, retailers, packaging companies, employers, and investors gauge consumer perspectives and find areas for growth in a competitive market.

Home Baking: US Trends and Opportunities delivers actionable predictions and recommendations designed to guide producers, retailers, and investors in making business decisions by providing data and insights about consumer behavior and what consumers think about home baking and various baking products.

Scope

Home Baking: US Trends and Opportunities is the go-to source for a complete understanding of U.S. consumer trends regarding home baking and home baking products. This report combines Packaged Facts’ extensive monitoring of the food and beverage market with proprietary surveys, and evaluates current trends and future directions for marketing and retailing, along with consumer patterns during the pandemic and across the broader food and beverage market.

This Packaged Facts report analyzes the dynamics of the current landscape of the home baking products market. Consumers who bake at home frequently (at least once a week), often (once or twice a month), occasionally (when there’s time, when the mood strikes, or for special occasions), and rarely (a few times a year) are examined. Trends including consumer usage of packaged baking mixes and purchases of baking products, reasons for diet and lifestyle choices, and the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on consumers are also investigated.

Sales of baking products in the scope of this report include packaged baking mixes, pre-made refrigerated and frozen dough and crusts, frozen pizzas, frozen pies, and baking staples.

This report provides historical market sizing from 2017 to 2022 and market forecasts from 2023 to 2027 for baking mixes and kits; baking staples; dough, shells, and crusts; frozen pies; and frozen pizza.

Sales of baking mixes and kits are broken out by product (bread mixes; brownie mixes; cake, cupcake, and pie mixes; coffee cake, gingerbread, and pastry mixes; cookie and cookie bar mixes; muffin mixes; pie crust mixes; pizza kits; and all other baking mixes).

Sales of baking staples are segmented by product (baking chips, chocolate, and cocoa; baking nuts; baking powder and baking soda; butter, butter blends, and margarine; coconut; cooking starches and rennet; corn, crystal, and white baking syrup; cornmeal and baking oat bran; cream cheese and cream cheese spreads; dairy milk (refrigerated, powdered, evaporated, and condensed); disposable baking cups; dry and refrigerated yeast; edible cake decorations; eggs and egg substitutes; extracts, flavoring, and food coloring; flour; frosting and frosting mixes; honey; maple/pancake and waffle syrup; maraschino cherries; marshmallow cream; molasses; pie/pastry filling; pizza sauce; plant-based milk; salt and salt substitutes; shortening and lard; spices and seasonings (no salt/pepper); and sugar and sugar substitutes).

Sales of dough, shells, and crusts are broken out by product (biscuit, bread, roll, and bun dough; cookie and brownie dough; pie, pastry, and dumpling dough, shells, and crusts; and pizza dough and crusts) and by storage type (refrigerated and frozen).

The reasons for, and implications of, shifts in consumer perception and behavior are analyzed in the context of present and future market opportunities.

Additionally, Home Baking: US Trends and Opportunities has dozens of tables showcasing numerical survey data on consumer demographics and psychographics and numerous marketing photographs. This report goes in-depth on COVID-19 trends affecting the food and beverage market.

Report Methodology

The information contained in Home Baking: US Trends and Opportunities was developed from primary and secondary research sources. Primary research includes interviews with food and beverage market experts; participation in and attendance at food industry events; and extensive internet canvassing.

Primary research also includes national online consumer polls of U.S. adult consumers (age 18+) conducted on an ongoing basis by Packaged Facts to analyze attitudes of consumers and their relevant food and beverage preferences.

Survey data from MRI-Simmons are used to analyze the demographics and psychographics of consumers.

Supplementing Packaged Facts’ exclusive survey is analysis of the 2022 Food & Health Survey conducted by the International Food Information Council, which analyzes consumer food purchase decisions, diet and lifestyle choices, snacking activity, and perception of health benefits in foods.


  • Executive Summary
    • Reasons for Baking at Home
    • Home Baking Trends
    • Key Demographics
    • Scope
  • COVID-19 Effects on Consumers
    • Highlights
    • First Time Use of Online Grocery Shopping and Restaurant Ordering Methods In 2020
      • Table Coronavirus Food Ordering Habits: "Because of the coronavirus, I have for the first time used…", 2020 (percent of consumers)
    • Boosted Online Grocery Shopping Activity Continuing Through 2022
      • Activity Spiked in 2020 during the Early Part of the Pandemic
        • Table Coronavirus Food Purchase Habits: "Because of the coronavirus, I am…", 2020-2021 (percent of consumers)
      • Many Have Continued Ordering More Groceries Online in 2021 and 2022
      • Frequency of Grocery Shopping: In-Person vs. Online
      • Frequent Home Bakers Are More Likely to Still Be Boosting Online Grocery Shopping Activity
        • Table Home Baking Activity by Increasing Online Grocery Ordering Activity Compared to Pre-COVID Habits, 2022 (percent of consumers vs. percent of consumers who report increased online grocery shopping activity compared to pre-COVID habits)
      • Use of Meal Kit Delivery Services
    • Many Consumers Are Still Holding off on Dining Out
    • Increased Use of Food Carryout and Delivery and Convenience Food Options
    • Snacking and Healthy Eating Habits
      • Changes in Eating Behavior during the Pandemic
        • Table Coronavirus Eating Habits: "Because of the coronavirus, I am eating more…", 2021 (percent of consumers)
      • Increased Eating Frequency among Home Bakers
        • Table Home Baking Activity by Increasing Eating Activity Compared to Pre-COVID Habits, 2022 (percent of consumers vs. percent of consumers who report increased eating activity of various types compared to pre-COVID habits)
    • Concerns about COVID-19 Exposure Remain
      • In 2022, Most Consumers Are Still Concerned about COVID-19 Infection from Restaurant or Delivery Staff When Ordering Food for Carryout or Delivery
      • Most Still Consider the Pandemic a Health Threat Personally or to Family/Friends
        • Table Coronavirus Health Concerns: "I am concerned about the…", 2020-2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Concerns about COVID-19 Variants
      • Frequent Home Bakers Are More Likely to Express Coronavirus Concerns
        • Table Home Baking Activity by Concerns about the Coronavirus Health Threat and Variants, 2022 (percent of consumers vs. percent of consumers who strongly agree they are concerned)
    • Rising Prices during the Pandemic
      • Many Consumers Are Concerned about Inflation and Rising Food Prices
        • Table Consumer Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)
      • The Vast Majority of Consumers Have Noticed the Rising Cost of Food Over the Past Year, and Many Are Changing Their Purchasing Decisions
      • Cutting Back on Household Expenses
        • Table Consumers Cutting Back on Household Expenses in the Last 12 Months, 2022 (percent of consumers)
        • Table Types of Household Expenses Cut Back on in the Last 12 Months, 2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Home Bakers Show No Difference in Concerns about Rising Food Prices
        • Table Home Baking Activity by Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2022 (percent of consumers vs. percent of consumers who strongly agree they are concerned)
    • Food Shortages during the Pandemic
      • Concerns about Food Shortages
        • Table Consumer Concerns about Food Shortages, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Stockpiling of Food and Beverage Items
        • Table Consumer Stockpiling of Food and Beverage Products, 2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Frequent Home Bakers Have Greater Concerns about Food Shortages
        • Table Home Baking Activity by Concerns about Food Shortages, 2022 (percent of consumers vs. percent of consumers who strongly agree they are concerned)
    • Negative Personal Effects of the Pandemic
      • Negative Effects Reported in 2020 and 2021
        • Table Coronavirus Concerns: "The coronavirus has negatively affected my…", 2020-2021 (percent of consumers)
      • Continuing Mental and Physical Health Effects
      • Stress Levels and Changes Made to Reduce Stress
      • Changes to Mental and Physical Health among Home Bakers
    • Pandemic Effects on Work
      • Changes to Work Patterns Have Continued in 2021 and 2022
      • Consumers Who Are Set Up to Work from Home or Have Increased Work-from- Home Time during the Pandemic Are More Likely to Bake Frequently
        • Table Home Baking Activity by Work from Home Activity, 2022 (percent of consumers vs. percent of consumers who strongly agree they are concerned)
    • In-Store Shopping Patterns
  • Overview and Market Trends
    • Highlights
    • Gluten and Lactose Intolerance, Food Allergies, and Dietary Restrictions Are a Concern to Many Consumers
      • Prevalence in 2022
      • Rising Rates of Reported Food Allergies and Lactose Intolerance over Time
        • Table Food Allergies and Lactose Intolerance, 2017-2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Purchases of Foods with Allergy-Friendly Labels
      • Many Consumers Purchase Allergy-Friendly Foods for Reasons Other Than an Allergy or Intolerance
    • Plant-Based and Plant-Forward Trends
      • Definitions
      • Plant-Based Meat and Dairy Products
      • Plant-Based Eating and Sustainability Are Buzzwords Important to the General Public
      • One-Fourth of Consumers Claim to Primarily Follow a Flexitarian Diet in 2022
    • Clean Label and "Better-for-You" Trends
      • Companies Are Investing in Blockchain and Big Data to Satisfy Consumer Desires for Transparency
      • Consumers Think Small and Medium Businesses Have More Credibility
      • Preferences for Product Labels Show "Natural" and "Clean" Are Most Preferential
      • Paying Attention to Food Labels - Shopping Online vs. In-Person
      • Reasons for Seeking "Natural" Food Labels
      • Perception of Health Differences in Products Based on Nutrition Facts Panel
      • Sugar-Free/No Sugar Added Products and Alternative Sweeteners
    • Low-Carb/High Protein, Keto, and Paleo Diets May Influence the Choice to Bake at Home
    • Convenience Foods and Semi-Homemade Foods
    • Baking for Indulgence, Nostalgia, or Comfort
    • The COVID-19 Pandemic Was the Jumpstart the Online Grocery Market Needed
      • Impact on the Market for Home Baking Products
    • Nutrients Sought by Consumers
      • Consumers Continue to Seek Out Protein Sources
      • Sources Used to Consume Nutrients
      • Consumers Report Increasing Consumption of Protein from Whole-Plant Sources
      • Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake
      • Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake
      • Sugar Continues to Be Preferred Over Low/No-Calorie Sweeteners
      • Information Consumers Seek Out on Nutrition Facts Labels
    • Mindful and Intuitive Eating
      • Definition
      • Dieting Activity
      • Frequency of Feelings and Behaviors Associated with Mindful and Intuitive Eating Patterns
      • Consumer Mindfulness Index
    • Concerns about Food Waste
      • Most Consumers Are Concerned about Food Waste
        • Table Levels of Concern about the Environment and Sources of Food Waste, 2022 (percent of consumers)
      • How Consumers Reduce Food Waste
  • Retail and Marketing Trends and Opportunities in Baking
    • Highlights
    • Types of Flour Used by Consumers
      • Alternative Flour Use Growing
    • Types of Sweeteners Used by Consumers
      • Alternative Sweetener Use Appeals to Consumers With Health Concerns
    • Baking for Special Diets/Eating Philosophies
      • Gluten-Free Baking
      • Keto/Low-Carb/High Protein Baking
      • Vegan/Plant-Based Baking
    • Food Gifting Trends
      • Food Gifts Purchased for Others
        • Table Food Gift Types Purchased for others in the Last 12 Months, 2010-2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Food Gifts Purchased for Self
        • Table Food Gift Types Purchased for Self in the Last 12 Months, 2020-2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Receipt of Personal vs. Work-Related Food Gifts
        • Table Types of Food Gifts Received: Personal Gift vs. Business Gift in the Last 12 Months, 2020-2022 (percent of adults who received a food gift)
      • Home Baking Frequency by Purchases and Receipt of Food Gifts
        • Table Home Baking Frequency by Purchases and Receipt of Food Gifts, 2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Opportunities for Home Baking
    • Subscription Boxes and Baking Themed Food Kits
    • Chocolate Candy Consumption
      • Table Frequency of Home Baking Activity by Frequency of Chocolate Consumption, 2022 (percent of consumers and index)
    • Branding Can Increase Appeal of Baking Products
    • Private Label Brands Have Wide Availability and Save Consumers and Retailers Money
      • Table Selected Private Label Brands Offering Baking-Related Products Brand(s) Retail Store
    • Targeting Families with Children
    • Packaging Trends
      • Recyclable/Sustainable Packaging
      • Smaller Packages for Smaller Households and Less Frequent Bakers
      • Retail-Ready Packaging
    • Baking Shows May Encourage Some Consumers to Bake More Often
    • New Smart Equipment Can Make Baking from Scratch Even Easier
  • Sales, Use, and Recent Purchases of Baking Products & Ingredients
    • Highlights
    • Scope
    • Historical Trends
      • Table Baking Products Retail Sales by Product Category, 2017-2022 (million dollars)
    • Forecast Sales by Product Category
      • Table Baking Products: Retail Sales by Product Category, 2022, 2023P-2027P (million dollars)
    • Baking Staples Sales by Product
      • Table Baking Staples: Retail Sales by Product, 2017-2022 (million dollars)
      • Table Baking Staples: Retail Sales by Product, 2022, 2023P-2027P (million dollars)
    • Dough, Shells, and Crusts Sales
      • Sales by Product
        • Table Dough, Shells, and Crusts: Retail Sales by Product, 2017-2022 (million dollars)
        • Table Dough, Shells, and Crusts: Retail Sales by Product, 2022, 2023P-2027P (million dollars)
      • Sales by Storage Type
        • Table Dough, Shells, and Crusts: Retail Sales by Storage Type, 2017-2022 (million dollars)
        • Table Dough, Shells, and Crusts: Retail Sales by Storage Type, 2022, 2023P-2027P (million dollars)
    • Baking Mixes and Kits Sales
      • Table Baking Mixes and Kits: Retail Sales by Product, 2017-2022 (million dollars)
      • Table Baking Mixes and Kits: Retail Sales by Product, 2022, 2023P-2027P (million dollars)
    • Frequency of Packaged Baking Mix Use
      • Table Frequency of Use of Packaged Baking Mixes, 2022 (percent of home bakers)
    • Purchases of Baking Products in the Last 12 Months
      • Table One Time Purchases of Baking Products in the Last 12 Months, 2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Table Purchases of Baking Products More Than Once in the Last 12 Months, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Purchases of Sugar and Sweeteners in the Last 12 Months
      • Table One Time Purchases of Sugar and Sweeteners in the Last 12 Months, 2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Table Purchases of Sugar and Sweeteners More Than Once in the Last 12 Months, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Purchases of Grain Flours or Nut Meals
      • Table One Time Purchases of Grain Flours or Nut Meals in the Last 12 Months, 2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Table Purchases of Grain Flours or Nut Meals More Than Once in the Last 12 Months, 2022 (percent of consumers)
  • Consumer Demographics
    • Highlights
    • Most Consumers Bake at Home at Least Some of the Time
    • Consumers Over the Age of 55 Are Much Less Likely to Bake at Home Than Younger People
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Age Bracket, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Women Are More Likely to Bake at Home, But Men Who Bake Do This Activity More Frequently
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Gender, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Income Trends in Home Baking Activity
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Household Income Bracket, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Married/Partnered Consumers and Those with Children in the Household Are More Likely to Bake and Bake More Frequently
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Relationship Status and Presence of Children in the Household, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Rural, Suburban, and Urban Consumers Differ in Home Baking Activity
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Rural, Suburban, and Urban Environment, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Regional Trends in Home Baking Activity
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by U.S. Region, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Baking at Home by Race/Ethnicity
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Race/Ethnicity, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Consumers with Higher Educational Attainment Bake More Frequently
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Educational Attainment, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Full Time Workers Are Most Likely to Bake at Home Frequently
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Employment Status, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Home Bakers Are More Likely to Follow Non-Omnivore Diets/Eating Philosophies
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Primary Diet/Eating Philosophy, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Clean Label Eating Correlates with Home Baking Activity
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Adherence to a Clean Label Diet, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Use of Online Grocery Shopping Websites
      • Table Home Baking Frequency by Use of Online Grocery Websites in the Last 30 Days, 2022 (percent of consumers)
  • Motivations for Baking and Consumer Psychographics
    • Highlights
    • Home Bakers Most Often Engage in This Activity Due to Enjoyment, With Taste, Smell, and Freshness Also Very Important Factors
      • Table Reasons for Baking at Home, 2022 (percent of home bakers)
    • Many Home Bakers Use Baking Mixes and More Often Prefer Indulgent Baked Goods
      • Table Baking Preferences and Activity, 2022 (percent of home bakers)
    • A Number of Home Bakers Think Baking Mixes Are Convenient, but Many Also Prefer Baking from Scratch
      • Table Baking Preferences and Pandemic-Related Baking Activity, 2022 (percent of home bakers)
    • Occasions for Home Baking
      • Table Occasions for Home Baking, 2022 (percent of home bakers)
    • Sweet vs. Savory Baking
      • Table Baking Activity: Sweet and Savory Items, 2022 (percent of home bakers)
    • How Can Consumers Be Persuaded to Bake More?
      • Table Reasons Consumers Would Consider Increasing the Amount of Baking They Do, 2022 (percent of consumers)
    • Why Some Consumers Do Not Bake at Home
    • Priorities Placed on Food Characteristics
      • All Consumers
        • Table Priorities Placed on Food Characteristics, 2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Parents/Guardians
        • Table Priorities Placed on Food Characteristics, 2022 (percent of parents/guardians with children under 18 in their household)
    • Attitudes about Food
      • Carbs, Proteins, and Whole/Unprocessed Foods
        • Table Statements about Carbohydrates/Sweeteners, Proteins, and Whole/Unprocessed Foods, 2022 (percent of consumers who strongly agree)
      • Food Restrictions, Nutritional Benefits, and Breakfast
        • Table Statements about Nutritional Benefits, Food Restrictions, and Breakfast, 2022 (percent of consumers who strongly agree)
      • Snacking
        • Table Statements about Snacking, 2022 (percent of consumers who agree)
        • Table Snacking Frequency on Weekdays and Weekends, 2022 (percent of consumers who agree)
    • Perceptions about Health and Nutrition
      • More than Half of Consumers Consider Themselves to Be in Excellent or Very Good Health
      • Beliefs about Sources of Weight Gain
      • Definition of "Healthy Food"

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