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The Future of Food Retailing: Value Grocery Shopping in the U.S.

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from $3,196 303 Pages Packaged Facts March, 2017 LA15139134
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Price from $3,196
Length 303 Pages
Publisher Packaged Facts
Published Date March, 2017
SKU LA15139134

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The Future of Food Retailing: Value Grocery Shopping in the U.S.

What could be said twenty years ago is even truer today: The U.S. food retailing business has never been more competitive. A number of trends are putting pressure on food retailers of all stripes, from supermarkets whose bread and butter is groceries to supercenters and drugstores for which food is a smaller but still crucial part of the product mix. Foremost are: 1) food deflation driven by heavy discounting; 2) shakeups among major chains; 3) heightened brick-and-mortar competition spurred by Germany-based discount retailers ALDI and Lidl; and 4) the incursion of e-commerce onto the food retailing landscape.

For value grocers, the good news is that many of these trends bode well for the value grocery business as a whole. On the other hand, with the expansion of discount/limited-assortment chains including ALDI and Lidl, it appears value grocery will be at the epicenter of some of the most aggressive competition the grocery industry has seen since the Walmart-driven supercenter invasion of the 1990s.

This first-edition report also explores the future of natural and fresh foods vis-à-vis the value grocery shopper, the impact of private labels and name brands, and the transformative and increasingly overlapping Millennial and Hispanic cohorts. The report profiles value grocery retailers across four sectors—supercenters (e.g., Walmart, SuperTarget, Kmart), wholesale clubs (Costco, Sam’s, BJ’s), dollar stores (Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, Dollar General), and discount/limited-assortment grocery chains (ALDI, Lidl, Food 4 Less)—and analyzes shopper behavior including penetration rates, preferences, cross-shopping at other grocery channels, demographics, and psychographics using trended multi-year Simmons consumer survey data.


  • Executive Summary
    • Trends and Opportunities
      • Supercenters Are No. 1 Grocery Retailer, Walmart Is Supercenter King
      • Grocery Retailing More Competitive Than Ever
      • The Changing Faces of Convenience
      • Smaller Stores Bigger Than Ever
      • Mobile Payments, Apps, and Screenless Payment
      • Fresh and Natural
      • Millennials and Hispanics: A Big Part of the Future of Grocery Retailing
    • Supercenters and Mass Merchandisers
      • Overview
      • Retailer Profile: Walmart Stores, Inc.
      • Retailer Profile: Target Corp.
      • Retailer Profile: Kmart
      • Retailer Profile: Meijer
      • Retailer Profile: Fred Meyer
    • Wholesale Clubs
      • Wholesale Clubs Account for Close to 10% of Grocery/Consumables Sales
      • Retailer Profile: Costco Wholesale Corp.
      • Retailer Profile: Sam's Club
      • Retailer Profile: BJ's Wholesale Club
    • Dollar Stores
      • Dollar Store Channel Sees Growth and Consolidation
      • A Lower-Income Customer Base, Plus Some Higher-Income Millennials
      • Channel Buoyed by Great Recession and Heightened Focus on Food
      • Retailer Profile: Dollar Tree
      • Retailer Profile: Dollar General
    • Discount/Limited-Assortment Chains
      • Fewer Choices, Bigger Savings
      • Retailer Profile: ALDI
      • Retailer Profile: Save-A-Lot
      • Retailer Brief: Food 4 Less
  • Trends and Opportunities
    • Chapter Highlights
    • Market Outlook
      • Supercenters Are No. 1 Grocery Retailer, Walmart Is Supercenter King
        • Table Value Channels in Overall Food Retailing Context, 2014-2016 (monthly number and percent of U.S. adults)
      • Value Grocers Outperforming Traditional Grocery
      • Grocery Retailing More Competitive Than Ever
      • Food Deflation
      • Retailer Upheaval: Consolidation, Reevaluation, and Bankruptcy
      • Here Comes Lidl
      • The E-Commerce Effect
      • USDA Testing Online Acceptance of Food Stamps by Retailers Including Amazon
      • The Changing Faces of Convenience
      • Smaller Stores Bigger Than Ever
      • Brick-and-Mortar Stores Emphasizing Online Ordering and In-store Pickup
      • Mobile Payments, Apps, and Screenless Payment
      • Fresh and Natural
      • Private Label—and Name Brands
        • Table National Name Brands and the Value Retailer Shopper, 2016 (general index for brand usage among shoppers)
      • Millennials and Hispanics: A Big Part of the Future of Value Grocery Retailing
        • Table Patterns by Key Demographics for Value and Other Food Retailing Channels: Millennials vs. Hispanics, 2016 (percent and index)
  • Supercenters and Mass Merchandisers
    • Chapter Highlights
    • Overview
      • Trends and Characteristics
      • Shopper Penetration Rates, Demographics, and Cross-Shopping
        • Table Supercenters in Overall Supercenter Context, 2012-2016 (monthly percent of U.S. adults as grocery shoppers)
        • Table Supercenters in Overall Supercenter Context, 2012-2016 (monthly number of U.S. adult grocery shoppers in millions)
        • Table Overview of Walmart Supercenter vs. SuperTarget or Kmart Shoppers, 2016 (index)
        • Table Cross-Shopping Patterns for Value and Other Food Retailing Channels: Walmart, Target, and Kmart, 2016 (percent of shopper base)
        • Table Cross-Shopping Patterns for Value and Other Food Retailing Channels: Meijer and Fred Meyer, 2016 (percent of shopper base)
    • Retailer Profile: Walmart Stores, Inc.
      • The World's Largest Food Retailer
      • Neighborhood Markets Going Strong
      • Walmart Testing Walmart Pickup and Fuel Stores and Convenience Stores
      • Walmart on Campus
      • Walmart Express Stores Shuttered
      • Better Wages, Better Performance
      • Private Label to "Fill in the Gaps"
      • App-solutely: Scan and Go and Walmart Pay
      • Self-Checkout, Home Delivery, and Store Pickup
      • Serious About e-Commerce: Walmart Acquires Jet.com, Shoebuy.com, and Moosejaw.com and Vows to Ramp up Digital Marketing Investment
      • No Shortage of Competitors—with More on the Way
      • Walmart Claims 60% of U.S. Adults as Monthly Food Shoppers
        • Table Walmart Supercenters in Overall Walmart Context, 2012-2016 (monthly percent of U.S. adults as shoppers)
        • Table Walmart Customer Base, 2012-2016 (monthly number of U.S. adult grocery shoppers in millions)
      • Walmart Supercenter Shopper Demographics
      • Walmart Supercenter Shopper Psychographics
        • Table Walmart Supercenter Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
        • Table Overview of Walmart Supercenter Shopper Demographics, 2004 vs. 2016 (index)
    • Retailer Profile: Target Corp.
      • Company Seeking to Halt Sales Slippage
      • Weak on Groceries
      • Target Remodeling to Add Fresh Foods
      • Target Testing Smaller-Format Stores
      • Target's Private Labels
      • Target Claims 9% of U.S. Adults as Food Shoppers
        • Table SuperTarget in Overall Target Context, 2012-2016 (monthly percent of U.S. adults as shoppers)
        • Table Target Customer Base, 2012-2016 (monthly number of U.S. adult grocery shoppers in millions)
      • Target Supercenter Shopper Demographics
      • SuperTarget Shopper Psychographics
        • Table SuperTarget Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
        • Table Overview of SuperTarget Shopper Demographics, 2011 vs. 2016 (index)
    • Retailer Profile: Kmart
      • Steady Decline Continues
      • Kmart Attracts 5.2% of U.S. Adults as Food Shoppers
        • Table Kmart Customer Base, 2012-2016 (monthly percent and number of U.S. adult grocery shoppers)
      • Kmart Supercenter Shopper Demographics
        • Table Overview of Kmart Shopper Demographics, 2004 vs. 2016 (index)
    • Retailer Profile: Meijer
      • One of America's Largest Privately Held Companies
      • Meijer Claims 4.8% of U.S. Adults as Food Shoppers
        • Table Meijer Customer Base, 2012-2016 (monthly percent and number of U.S. adult grocery shoppers)
      • Meijer Supercenter Shopper Demographics
        • Table Overview of Meijer Shopper Demographics, 2004 vs. 2016 (index)
    • Retailer Profile: Fred Meyer
      • Strong in the Pacific Northwest
      • Fred Meyer Claims 2.8% of U.S. Adults as Food Shoppers
        • Table Fred Meyer Customer Base, 2012-2016 (monthly percent and number of U.S. adult grocery shoppers)
      • Fred Meyer Supercenter Shopper Demographics
        • Table Overview of Fred Meyer Shopper Demographics, 2004 vs. 2016 (index)
  • Wholesale Clubs
    • Chapter Highlights
    • Overview
      • Wholesale Clubs Account for Close to 10% of Grocery/Consumables Sales
      • Shopper Penetration Rates
        • Table Wholesale Clubs in Overall Wholesale Club Retailer Context, 2014-2016 (monthly percent of U.S. adults shoppers)
        • Table Wholesale Clubs in Overall Wholesale Club Retailer Context, 2014-2016 (monthly number of U.S. adult shoppers)
      • Food Shopper Demographics
      • Cross-Shopping: Most Wholesale Club Shoppers Also Frequent Supercenters
      • Food Shopper Psychographics
        • Table Overview of Costco vs. Sam's Club or BJ's Food Shoppers, 2016 (index)
        • Table Cross-Shopping Patterns for Value and Other Food Retailing Channels: Wholesale Clubs, 2016 (percent of shopper base)
    • Retailer Profile: Costco Wholesale Corp.
      • A Time-Tested Company Culture
      • Low Prices and Living Wages
      • Keeping Prices Down
      • Miles of Aisles
      • Private Label : Kirkland Signature Is an International Mega-Brand
      • Marketing, Not Advertising
      • Costco Claims 19.1% of U.S. Adults as Monthly Food Shoppers
        • Table Costco Food Shopping in Overall Costco Context, 2014-2016 (monthly percent of U.S. adults shoppers)
        • Table Costco Food Shopping in Overall Costco Context, 2014-2016 (monthly number of U.S. adult shoppers)
      • Costco Food Shopper Demographics
        • Table Costco Food Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
    • Retailer Profile: Sam's Club
      • Groceries and Consumables Account for Over Half of Sales
      • Working to Improve Performance and Profits
      • A Lower-Income Shopper Base
      • Sam's Club Poaches Costco Shoppers Unhappy with Credit Card Switch
      • Sam's Club Claims 8.4% of U.S. Adults as Monthly Food Shoppers
        • Table Sam's Club Food Shopping in Overall Sam's Club Context, 2014-2016 (monthly percent of U.S. adults shoppers)
        • Table Sam's Club Food Shopping in Overall Sam's Club Context, 2014-2016 (monthly number of U.S. adult shoppers)
      • Sam's Club Food Shopper Demographics
        • Table Sam's Club Food Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
    • Retailer Profile: BJ's Wholesale Club
      • Up for Sale?
      • BJ's v. Costco and Sam's
      • Paring Private Label
      • An Important Shopper Draw: Low-Price Gas
      • Pickup and Pay and Online Deli/Bakery Ordering
      • BJ's Claims 2.6% of U.S. Adults as Monthly Food Shoppers
        • Table BJ's Food Shopping in Overall BJ's Context, 2014-2016 (monthly percent of U.S. adults shoppers)
        • Table BJ's Food Shopping in Overall BJ's Context, 2014-2016 (monthly number of U.S. adult shoppers)
      • BJ's Food Shopper Demographics
        • Table BJ's Food Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
  • Dollar Stores
    • Chapter Highlights
    • Overview
      • Dollar Store Channel Sees Growth and Consolidation
      • A Lower-Income Customer Base, Plus Some Higher-Income Millennials
      • Channel Buoyed by Great Recession and Heightened Focus on Food
      • Additional Expansion Ahead
      • Dollar Store Shopper Penetration Rates, Demographics, and Cross-Shopping
        • Table Dollar Stores in Overall Dollar Store Context, 2014-2016 (monthly number & percent of U.S. adults)
      • Dollar Store Shopper Psychographics
        • Table Overview of Dollar Tree vs. Dollar General or Family Dollar Shoppers, 2016 (index)
        • Table Cross-Shopping Patterns for Value and Other Food Retailing Channels: Dollar Stores, 2016 (percent of shopper base)
    • Retailer Profile: Dollar Tree, Inc.
      • Sales and Store Count Surge Due to Family Dollar Acquisition
      • Family Dollar Acquisition Poses Challenges
      • Dollar Tree and Family Dollar Shopper Penetration Rates
        • Table Family Dollar and Dollar Tree in Context, 2012-2016 (monthly percent of U.S. adult shoppers)
        • Table Dollar Tree and Family Dollar in Context, 2012-2016 (monthly number of U.S. adult shoppers)
      • Dollar Tree Shopper Demographics
        • Table Dollar Tree Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
        • Table Overview of Dollar Tree Shopper Demographics, 2011 vs. 2016 (indexes)
      • Family Dollar Shopper Demographics
        • Table Family Dollar Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
        • Table Overview of Family Dollar Shopper Demographics, 2005 vs. 2016 (indexes)
    • Retailer Profile: Dollar General Corp.
      • The Most Locations and Rapid Expansion
      • New DGX Smaller Store Format Targets Millennials
      • Focus on Food (and Tobacco)
      • Dollar General Plus and Dollar General Market
      • Responding to Dollar Tree
      • Dollar General Claims 10.5% of U.S. Adults as Monthly Shoppers
        • Table Percent and Number of Monthly Dollar General Shoppers, 2012-2016 (U.S. adult shoppers)
      • Dollar General Shopper Demographics
        • Table Dollar General Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
        • Table Overview of Dollar General Shopper Demographics, 2005 vs. 2016 (indexes)
  • Discount/Limited-Assortment Chains
    • Chapter Highlights
    • Overview
      • Discount/Limited-Assortment Grocery Stores: Fewer Choices, Bigger Savings
      • Market Entry of Lidl Expected to Sharpen Competitive Stakes
      • ALDI Out Front
        • Table Discount/Limited-Assortment Grocery Chains in Overall Discount/Limited-Assortment Grocery Chain Context, 2014-2016 (monthly number & percent of U.S. adults)
      • Cross Shopping Among Discount/Limited-Assortment Grocery Chains
        • Table Cross-Shopping Patterns for Value and Other Food Retailing Channels: ALDI, Save-A-Lot, and Food 4 Less, 2016 (percent of shopper base)
    • Retailer Profile: ALDI
      • ALDI: South v. North
      • Bare Bones Approach for Low Prices Keeps Shoppers Smiling
      • Gearing Up for Lidl: Accelerated Expansion and Remodeling
      • ALDI Demographics: Shoppers on a Budget
      • ALDI Shopper Psychographics
        • Table ALDI Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
        • Table Overview of ALDI vs. Trader Joe's Shoppers, 2016 (percent and index)
    • Retailer Profile: Save-A-Lot
      • Company Overview
      • Private Equity Firm Onex Buys Save-A-Lot
      • Save-A-Lot Leads Supervalu Chains by Number of Shoppers
      • Save-A-Lot Demographics
      • Comparison of Save-A-Lot (Onex) Shoppers vs. Shoppers for Selected Supervalu Chains
        • Table Save-A-Lot Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
        • Table Overview of Save-A-Lot (Onex) Shoppers vs. Shoppers for Selected Supervalu Chains, 2016 (index)
    • Retailer Brief: Food 4 Less
      • Part of the Kroger Supermarket Kingdom
      • Food 4 Less Attracts 3.7% of U.S. Adults as Monthly Shoppers
      • Food 4 Less Shopper Demographics
      • Kroger Shopper Profile Much Less Distinct
        • Table Food 4 Less Shopper Demographics, 2016 (number, percent, and index)
        • Table Overview of Food 4 Less vs. Kroger Shoppers, 2016 (index)
  • Appendix I
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Go Shopping Frequently " and "I Really Enjoy Any Kind of Shopping," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "When I Shop I Usually Visit a Variety of Stores and "A Store's Environment Can Make a Difference in Whether I Shop There," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Am Usually First of My Friends To Shop at New Store" and "Often Go Out of My Way to Find New Stores to Shop At," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Buy Goods Produced by My Country Whenever I Can" and "Would Pay More for Environmentally Friendly Products," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Always Look for Brand Name on Packaged" and "Like to Change Brands Often for the Sake of Variety and Novelty," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Enjoy Shopping With My Children" and "My Children Have a Significant Impact on the Brands I Choose," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "When in Store, Often Buy at Spur of Moment " and "Often Use the Internet to Help Plan My Shopping Trips," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Usually Only Shop at Favorite Stores Because They Have the Prices I Like and "Shop Around A Lot To Take Advantage of Specials or Bargains," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Coupon Could Draw Me to a Store Where I Don't Usually Shop" and "Am Drawn to Stores I Normally Don't Shop at by Sales," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Always Look Out for Special Offers" and "Even Though I Didn't Need It Right Then, Would Buy More of a Product on Sale," 2016 (percent and index)
  • Appendix II
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Shopping for Groceries Is a Bore," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Really Enjoy Cooking" and "The Kitchen Is the Most Important Room in My House," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Like to Try New Recipes" and "I Usually Refer to Recipes When Cooking," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Often Read the Recipes on the Food Products That I Buy" and "I Can Be Swayed by Coupons to Try New Products," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Like to Try Out New Food Products" and "I Am Usually the First of My Friends to Try New Food Products," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Prefer to Eat Foods Without Artificial Additives" and "When Shopping for Food, I Especially Look for Organic or Natural," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Usually Look for the Freshest Ingredients When I Cook" and "When Shopping for Food, I Make an Extra Effort to Buy Locally Grown," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Often Eat Store-Made, Pre-Cooked Meals" and "I Often Eat Frozen Dinners," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Simple, Easy to Prepare Foods Are My Favorites" and "Prefer Fast Food to Home Cooking," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Eat Several Small Meals Throughout the Day" and "Breakfast Is More Important Than Lunch or Dinner," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Lunch Is More Important Than Breakfast or Dinner" and "Dinner Is More Important Than Breakfast or Lunch," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Often Snack Between Meals" and "I Often Feel I Overeat," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Frequently Eat Sweets" and "Salted Snacks Are My Favorite," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Enjoy Eating Foreign Foods" and "I Try to Eat Gourmet Foods Whenever I Can," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Prefer Foods Cooked With Lots of Spices" an "Prefer the Taste of Food Without a Lot of Spices," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Like to Try New Drinks" and "I Often Drink Alcoholic Beverages at Restaurants," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Nutritional Value Is Most Important Factor in Which Foods I Eat" and "I Usually Am Quick to Try a New Nutritional Products," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Most of the Time, I Am Trying to Lose Weight by Dieting" and "Normally Count Calories of the Foods I Eat," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Try to Include Plenty of Fiber in My Diet" and "Usually Only Snack on Healthy Foods," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Most Snack Foods Are Not Healthy" and and "Most Frozen Dinners Have Little Nutritional Value," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "I Feel Guilty When I Eat Sweets" and "I Feel Guilty When I Eat Fattening Foods," 2016 (percent and index)
    • Table Psychographic Patterns by Channel or Retailer: "Nothing Wrong With Indulging in Fattening Foods from Time to Time" and "Eat the Foods I Like Regardless of Calories," 2016 (percent and index)

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