Food Market Outlook 2024: Opportunities & Challenges With Pricing, Convenience, Sustainability & More

Food Market Outlook 2024: Opportunities & Challenges With Pricing, Convenience, Sustainability & More


Most major packaged food categories are mature and rely primarily on population growth, leaving food marketers with the challenge of bringing something new to the table. Opportunities abound for companies that invest in new product launches, ingredient changes, and different marketing tactics to appeal to changing consumer preferences. Still, there is an ebb and flow in some trends as the rise and sometimes recede from consumer awareness. For instance, inflation is a continuation of recent challenges in 2022 and 2023, despite prices easing in growth if not level relative to 2021. Others like sustainability and convenience are reflections of changing consumer priorities and demographics.

Inflation-fueled higher prices are a core trend that began in 2022 and is continuing in 2024, albeit at a slower rate. Supply challenges, higher ingredient and energy prices, and rising labor costs have combined to test suppliers, retailers, and consumers. This has led to consumers seeking value, whether that means in comparison to the price of dining out or in comparison to routine grocery items, with private label options seeing surges across all categories and even beyond the basics to items with trendy flavors and ingredient compositions.

Additionally, food shoppers are increasingly placing sustainability at a higher priority level again, with plant-based options, clean labels, sustainable supply chains, and recyclable and reduced packaging continuing as key trends. Furthermore, shoppers are presenting preferences with contradictions as they are looking for indulgence, but better-for-you versions, along with snacking variations and chef-inspired menus, but with convenient preparation.

With a focus on growth opportunities and “what’s next” – along with bringing decades of food and beverage market perspective and analysis to the table – U.S. Food Market Outlook 2024: Opportunities & Challenges With Pricing, Convenience, Sustainability & More is packed with actionable insights about consumer trends, behavior, and motivations. This report delivers predictions and recommendations designed to guide retailers, service providers, wholesalers, food processors, packaging firms, and investors in making business decisions about the food market.

Scope

Combining Packaged Facts’ extensive monitoring of the food and beverage market with proprietary surveys, U.S. Food Market Outlook 2024 is the go-to source for a complete understanding of the U.S. food market. This broad-based report evaluates current trends and future directions for marketing and retailing, along with consumer patterns across the food market.

U.S. Food Market Outlook 2024 examines product availability; surveys retail channel trends; and analyzes consumer trends and motivations. This report focuses on the market for selected food products sold to consumers in the United States through retail channels. All retail channels of distribution are covered in market sizing and discussion, including supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters, warehouse clubs, natural food stores, convenience stores, drugstores, dollar stores, and direct-sales channels including online. Market size data and projections are provided at the retail sales level.

Report Methodology

The information contained in U.S. Food Market Outlook 2024 was developed from a variety of primary and secondary research sources.

Primary research includes interviews with food and beverage market experts and participation in and attendance at food industry events. Primary research also includes the Packaged Facts National Online Consumer survey, a quarterly poll of U.S. adult consumers (age 18+) conducted by Packaged Facts to analyze purchasing patterns and attitudes with regard to food and beverage preferences. Supplementing Packaged Facts’ exclusive survey is an extensive analysis of MRI-Simmons’ National Consumer Study, which is based on approximately 25,000 adult respondents surveyed annually.

Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business, and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports.

This report contains dozens of numerical tables and charts, as well as numerous product photographs. Our estimates of market size and company performance are based on various sources including reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, relevant publications, and other market research sources. The analysis in this report also draws, as a background source, on retail sales tracking data from mass market and specialty channels.


  • Executive Summary
    • Food Trends
    • Scope
    • Methodology
  • Trends from the Pandemic to the Inflation Era
    • Concerns about COVID-19 Exposure Remain
      • Most Still Consider the Pandemic a Health Threat
        • Table Coronavirus Health Concerns: “I am concerned about the…”, 2021 – 2023 (% of consumers)
      • Vaccination for the Flu and COVID-19
        • Table Consumer Vaccination Plans, 2023 (% of consumers)
        • Table Consumer Vaccination Rates, 2024 (% of consumers)
      • Some Consumers Continue to Wear Masks in Public and Avoid Crowds
        • Table Consumer Habits Regarding Masks, Crowds, and Testing for COVID-19, 2024 (% of consumers)
    • Negative Personal Effects of the Pandemic
      • Reporting Negative Mental States in 2023
      • Continuing Mental and Physical Health Effects in 2024
        • Table Current Feelings on Mental and Physical Symptoms Compared to “Normal” or Preferred Level, 2024 (% of consumers)
      • Stress Levels and Impact on Food/Beverage Consumption
    • Work-From-Home Trends
      • Working from Home in 2023: Work from Home Ability and Frequency
        • Table Ability to Work from Home and Frequency of Remote Work, 2023 (% of consumers)
      • Work Habits in 2024: Typical Work Weeks
        • Table “How Much of Your Typical Work Week is Spent at the Following Locations?”, 2024 (% of employed consumers)
      • Work Habits in 2024: Typical Work Arrangements
    • Home Cooking Remains Relatively High
      • Table Home Cooking Behaviors, Agree Completely, 2013 – 2023 (% of US adults)
      • Table Food Prepared From Scratch In Last 6 Months, 2013 – 2023 (% of households that make food from scratch)
    • Inflation and Prices
      • Many Consumers Are Concerned about Inflation and Rising Food Prices
        • Table Consumer Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2023 – 2024 (% of consumers)
      • Vast Majority of Consumers Have Noticed the Rising Cost of Food; Many Changing Purchasing Decisions
      • Consumers Find Price More Important for Food Purchase Decisions in 2023
      • Cutting Back on Household Expenses
        • Table Consumer Spending on “Extras”, 2023 – 2024 (% of consumers)
        • Table “If a food item is on sale, I buy multiple units to stock up.” Agree Completely, 2013 – 2023 (% of US adults)
  • Overview
    • Food Retail Sales Forecast
      • Table US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2018, 2023 - 2028P (million dollars and percent change)
      • Table US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (million dollars and percent change)
      • Table US Retail Dollar and Volume Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (percent change)
      • Table Annual Price Changes by Top Food Categories, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (percent change)
    • Distribution Trends
      • E-Commerce and Grocery Delivery
        • Table Purchased Groceries Over Internet in Last 30 days, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US adults)
      • Faster and More Convenient Home Delivery
      • Drone Delivery
      • In-Home Delivery
      • DoorDash Expands SNAP Payments to More Grocers
    • Snacking
      • Frequency of Snacking and Reasons for Snacking
    • Home Meal Kits
      • Table Consumer Use of Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2024 (percent of consumers)
      • Table Consumer Frequency of Food Ordering Methods in the Last 3 Months, 2024 (percent of consumers who have used each method in the last 12 months)
    • Home Meal Delivery
      • Table Consumer Use of Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2024 (percent of consumers)
      • Table Consumer Frequency of Food Ordering Methods in the Last 3 Months, 2024 (percent of consumers who have used each method in the last 12 months)
  • Food Trends
    • CEA-Indoor Farming
    • Plant-Based Alternatives
      • 90% of Consumers Primarily Omnivores or Flexitarians
        • Table Prevalence of Plant-Forward Eating Habits/Diet Control, 2020 – 2023 (percent of consumers)
      • Plant-Based Meat and Poultry Alternatives
      • Blends
      • Plant-Based, Dairy-Free Alternatives
    • Non-Plant-Based Alternatives
      • Cultivated Meat Facing Challenges
      • Other Alternatives
      • Animal-Free Dairy
    • Responsible New Product Development
      • Packaging
    • Healthier-For-You
      • Table “I Buy Food Labeled As…”, 2017 – 2023 (percent of US adults)
      • Natural
      • Healthy Food
      • Reduced or Zero Sugar
      • Processed Foods
      • Incorporating Vegetables
        • Table Consumption Rates for Fresh Vegetables, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households)
      • Diet-Friendly
        • Table “Are you familiar with (heard of it and know what is involved in following it) any of the following diet and eating philosophies?”, 2021 – 2023 (percent of consumers)
      • Weight Loss
    • Mindful Indulgence
    • Ignite the Senses
    • Comfort & Nostalgia
    • Kid-Focused
    • Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
    • Influencer Inspired
      • Table Factors That Entice People to Try New Foods, Strongly Impact, 2023 (percent of consumers)
    • Partnerships a Win-Win
    • Private Label Still Outperforming National Brands
      • Table Selected Private Label Department Dollar Sales Growth, 2021, 2022, 2023 (percent change)
      • Table Consumption Rates in last 6 months for Selected Store Brand Foods, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households that eat selected product)
  • Cereal
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Increasing Slightly to Over $13 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 – 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table US Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 – 2028 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Chocolate Candy
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Increases to Over $35 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 – 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
      • Segment Sales
        • Table US Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 – 2028 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Cookies
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market to Exceed $18 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Cookies Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 – 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Fresh Bread
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Over $22 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 – 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
      • Segment Sales
        • Table US Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 – 2028 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Fresh Packaged Salads
    • Sales Outlook
      • Fresh Packaged Salad Sales Increasing to Over $9 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Fresh Packaged Salads Retail Sales, 2018 – 2028 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Segment Sales
    • Consumer Insights
      • Packaged Salad Consumption Still Higher Than Pre-Pandemic Levels
        • Table Consumption Rates for Packaged Fresh Salad and Fresh Produce, 2013 – 2023 (percent of households)
      • Packaged Salad Eaters Don’t Consume That Often
        • Table Packages of Packaged Fresh Salad Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households that eat packaged fresh salad)
    • Key Opportunities
      • CEA-Indoor Farming
      • Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
      • Global Inspiration
  • Frozen Dinners/Entrees
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Increasing to Nearly $16 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 – 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Segment, 2016 – 2028 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Frozen Pizza
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Approaches $9 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Frozen Pizza Retail Sales, 2018 – 2028 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent)
    • Consumer Insights
      • Frozen Pizza Eaten by Only Half of US Households
        • Table Consumption Rates for Frozen Pizza, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households)
      • Frozen Pizzas Eaters Don’t Eat Them That Often
        • Table Packages of Frozen Pizza Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households that eat frozen pizza)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
      • Mindful Indulgence
      • Ultra-Indulgent
      • Ignite the Senses
      • Influencer Inspired
      • Responsible NPD
  • Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Increasing to Over $19 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Sales, 2018 – 2028 (million dollars, million units, and percent change)
      • Category and Segment Sales
        • Table US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Dollar Sales: By Category & Segment, 2016 – 2028 (million dollars and percent)
    • Consumer Insights
      • Regular (Full-Fat) Ice Cream Overwhelmingly Preferred
        • Table Types of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten Most Often, 2017 – 2023 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)
      • Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaters Don’t Consume Much
        • Table Pints of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2016 – 2023 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Ignite the Senses
      • Comfort & Nostalgia
      • Mindful Indulgence
      • Dairy Alternatives
      • Animal-Free Dairy
      • Responsible NPD
  • Meal & Snack Bars
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market to Exceed $10 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales, 2018 – 2028 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales: By Category, Segment 2016 – 2028 (million dollars)
    • Consumer Insights
      • Heaviest-Consuming Snack Bar Group Expands
        • Table Number of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households that eat breakfast/cereal/granola bars)
      • Key Brand Differences
        • Table Consumption Rates for Selected Brands of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2013 – 2023 (percent of households that eat bars)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Mindful Indulgence
      • Healthier-For-You
      • Ignite the Senses
      • Kid-Focused
      • Responsible NPD
  • Meat and Poultry
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Approaching $139 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Meat and Poultry Retail Sales, 2018 – 2028 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Category and Segment Sales
        • Table US Meat and Poultry Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category/Segment, 2016 – 2028 (million dollars and percent change)
    • Consumer Insights
      • Poultry Preferred Over Meat but Gap Shrinking
        • Table Consumption Rates for Meat & Poultry, 2013 –2023 (percent of households)
      • Consumers Overwhelming Prefer Fresh Over Frozen
        • Table Consumption Rates for Fresh versus Frozen Meat & Poultry, 2013 – 2023 (percent of households that eats meat or poultry)
      • Bacon and Sausage Struggle to Hold Pandemic Gains
        • Table Consumption Rates for Selected Processed Meats and Poultry, 2013 – 2023 (percent of households)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
      • Ignite the Senses
      • Plant-based Alternatives
      • Blends
      • Cultivated Meat Facing Challenges
      • Other Alternatives
      • Responsible NPD
  • Natural and Specialty Cheese
    • Sales Outlook
      • Table US Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 – 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table US Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 – 2028 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Salty Snacks
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market to Reach $51 Billion in 2028
        • Table US. Salty Snacks Retail Sales, 2018 – 2028 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Segment Sales
        • Table US. Salty Snack Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 – 2028 (million dollars and percent change)
    • Consumer Insights
      • Potato Chips Still Most Preferred But Trending Down
        • Table Consumption Rates for Selected Salty Snacks, 2013 – 2023 (percent of households)
      • Chip Eaters Don’t Consume Much
        • Table Bags of Potato Chips Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households that eat potato chips)
        • Table Bags of Corn/Tortilla/Other Chips & Cheese Snacks Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2013 -2023 (percent of US households that eat corn/tortilla/other chips & cheese snacks)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Ignite the Senses
      • Mindful Indulgence
      • Comfort & Nostalgia
      • Responsible NPD
  • Soup
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Increasing to Over $10 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Soup Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2018 – 2028 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds/16oz. equivalents, and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Yogurt
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Increasing to $13 Billion in 2028
        • Table US Yogurt Retail Sales, 2018 – 2028 (million dollars, million pints, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table US Yogurt Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016 – 2028 (million dollars)
    • Consumer Insights
      • After Pandemic Boost, Yogurt Consumption Relatively Steady
        • Table Consumption Rates for Yogurt, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households)
      • Regular (Full-Fat) Yogurt Still Preferred
        • Table Types of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
      • Plain and Flavored Yogurt Gain at Expense of Fruit Varieties
        • Table Kinds of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
      • Greatest Growth from Those Eating the Least
        • Table Containers of Yogurt Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2013 – 2023 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Healthier-For-You
      • Dairy-Free and Plant-Based Alternatives
      • Increase Kids’ Consumption
      • Ignite the Senses
      • Snacking
      • Responsible NPD

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