Food Market Outlook 2022: Inflation, Supply Chains, Food Trends & the Effects on Home Cooking & Grocery Shopping


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

U.S. Food Market Outlook 2022: Inflation, Supply Chains, Food Trends & the Effects on Home Cooking & Grocery Shopping

Most major packaged food categories are mature and rely primarily on population growth, leaving food marketers with the challenge of bringing something new to the table. Opportunities abound for companies that invest in new product launches, ingredient changes, and different marketing tactics to appeal to changing consumer preferences.

The sharply increased home cooking trend of 2020 and 2021, which drove elevated demand for food in the retail sector, is easing. While some consumers are continuing to prepare more of their meals from home than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, more consumers are returning to pre-pandemic normal out-of-home activities and shifting more of their food consumption back to foodservice establishments. However, supply chain challenges persist and, in some cases, are increasing. Certain types of packaging and ingredients are available in insufficient supplies and retailers have to wait longer or pay more for deliveries. Inflation-fueled higher prices are another core trend in 2022, as supply challenges and rising labor costs combine to test suppliers, retailers, and consumers.

With a focus on growth opportunities and “what’s next” – along with bringing decades of food and beverage market perspective and analysis to the table – U.S. Food Market Outlook 2022: Inflation, Supply Chains, Food Trends & the Effects on Home Cooking & Grocery Shopping is packed with actionable insights about consumer trends, behavior, and motivations. This report delivers predictions and recommendations designed to guide retailers, service providers, wholesalers, food processors, packaging firms, and investors in making business decisions about the food market.

Scope

Combining Packaged Facts’ extensive monitoring of the food and beverage market with proprietary surveys, U.S. Food Market Outlook 2022 is the go-to source for a complete understanding of the U.S. food market. This broad-based report evaluates current trends and future directions for marketing and retailing, along with consumer patterns across the food market.

U.S. Food Market Outlook 2022 examines product availability; surveys retail channel trends; and analyzes consumer trends and motivations. This report focuses on the market for selected food products sold to consumers in the United States through retail channels. All retail channels of distribution are covered in market sizing and discussion, including supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters, warehouse clubs, natural food stores, convenience stores, drugstores, dollar stores, and direct-sales channels including online. Market size data and projections are provided at the retail sales level.

Report Methodology

The information contained in U.S. Food Market Outlook 2022 was developed from primary and secondary research sources.

Primary research includes interviews with food and beverage market experts and participation in and attendance at food industry events. Primary research also includes national online consumer polls of U.S. adult consumers (age 18+) conducted on an ongoing basis by Packaged Facts to analyze purchasing patterns and attitudes with regard to food and beverage preferences. Supplementing Packaged Facts’ exclusive survey is an extensive analysis of MRI-Simmons’ National Consumer Study, which is based on approximately 25,000 adult respondents surveyed annually.

Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business, and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports.

This report contains dozens of numerical tables and charts, as well as numerous product photographs. Our estimates of market size and company performance are based on various sources including reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, relevant publications, and other market research sources. The analysis in this report also draws, as a background source, on retail sales tracking data from mass market and specialty channels.



  • Executive Summary
    • Food Retail Sales Forecast
    • COVID-19 Effects on Retail Food Sales
    • Concerns About High Prices
    • Consumers Still Stockpiling
    • Food Trends
      • CEA-Indoor Farming
      • Plant-Based Alternatives
      • Non-Plant-Based Alternatives
      • Address ESG Issues
      • Better Better-For-You
      • Convenient Meal Prep
    • Scope
    • Methodology
  • COVID-19 Effects on Consumers
    • Highlights
    • Considering the Pandemic a Health Threat Personally or to Family/Friends
      • Table Coronavirus Health Concerns: "I am concerned about the…", 2020-2022 (% of respondents)
    • Impact on Food
      • Concerns About High Prices and Shortages
        • Table Coronavirus Concerns about Rising Prices by Product Category, 2021 (percent of consumers)
        • Table Consumer Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Concerns About Shortages
        • Table Coronavirus Concerns about Shortages by Product Category, 2021 (percent of consumers)
        • Table Consumer Concerns about Food Shortages, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)
      • Consumers Still Stockpiling
        • Table "If a food item is on sale, I buy multiple units to stock up." Agree Completely, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. adults)
        • Table Separate freezer purchase in last 12 months, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households)
    • Eating Patterns: What & When
    • Home Cooking Remains Relatively High
      • Table Home Cooking Behaviors, Agree Completely, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. adults)
      • Table Food Prepared From Scratch In Last 6 Months, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households, and percent of households that make food from scratch)
    • Food Shopping Habits & Patterns
      • Increasing Use of Convenient Food and Beverage Ordering Methods
        • Table Coronavirus Food Purchase Habits: "Because of the coronavirus, I am…", 2020-2021 (percent of consumers)
      • In-Store Shopping Patterns
      • Rising Use of Meal Kit Delivery Services
    • Effects on Work Continuing in 2021
      • Set Up To Work From Home
        • Table "Are You Set Up to Do Your Usual Paid Work From Home -- Whether Ordinarily, Part-Time, or When Necessary?" by Gender, Age, Income, &Children at Home; 2021 (% of respondents who work full- or part-time)
      • Changes in Work From Home Habits
  • Overview
    • Food Retail Sales Forecast
      • Table U.S. Retail Dollar Sales by Selected Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021 (million dollars and percent)
      • Table U.S. Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2016, 2021-2026P (million dollars and percent)
      • Table U.S. Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021 (million dollars and percent)
    • Distribution Trends
      • E-Commerce and Grocery Delivery
        • Table Purchased Groceries Over Internet in Last 30 days, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. adults)
      • Easier Store Pickup
      • Faster Home Delivery
      • In-Home Delivery
      • Instacart Adds Features to Fight Inflation
    • Snacking
      • Frequency of Snacking and Reasons for Snacking
      • Younger Consumers Are More Likely to Snack Throughout the Day
    • Home Meal Kits
    • Home Meal Delivery
  • Food Trends
    • CEA-Indoor Farming
    • Plant-Based Alternatives
      • Plant-Based Meat and Poultry Alternatives
      • Blends
      • Plant-Based, Dairy-Free Alternatives
    • Non-Plant-Based Alternatives
      • Cultivated Meat Getting Closer to Market
      • Other Alternatives
      • Animal-Free Dairy
    • Address ESG Issues
      • Packaging
    • Better Better-For-You
      • Table I Buy Food Labeled As…, 2017-2021 (percent of U.S. adults)
      • Natural
      • Reduced or Zero Sugar
        • Table Regarding sweeteners purchased alone for baking/cooking or that are used in my food.... (percent of U.S. adults)
      • Immunity and Gut Health
      • Incorporating Vegetables
        • Table Consumption Rates for Vegetables, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households)
      • Diet-Friendly
        • Table Familiarity with Special Diets, 2021 (percent of consumers)
    • Heightened Experiences
    • Convenient Meal Prep
    • Leverage Classics and Nostalgia
    • At-Home Restaurant Quality
    • Partnerships Continue to Play Important Role
    • Private Label: Lagged in 2021 But Remains Important
      • Table Consumption Rates in last 6 months for Selected Store Brand Foods, 2010-2020 (percent of U.S. households that eats selected product)
  • Cereal
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Declining to About $10 Billion in 2026
        • Table U. S. Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2016–2026 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table U. S. Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016–2026 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Chocolate Candy
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Approaching $31 Billion in 2026
        • Table U. S. Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2016–2026 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
      • Segment Sales
        • Table U. S. Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016–2026 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Cookies
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market to Exceed $14 Billion in 2026
        • Table U. S. Cookies Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2016-2026 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Fresh Bread
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Declining to Under $18 Billion in 2026
        • Table U. S. Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2016–2026 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
      • Segment Sales
        • Table U. S. Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016–2026 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Fresh Packaged Salads
    • Sales Outlook
      • Fresh Packaged Salad Sales to Approach $10 Billion by 2026
        • Table U.S. Fresh Packaged Salads Retail Sales, 2016-2026 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Segment Sales
    • Consumer Insights
      • Pandemic Boosts Packaged Salad Consumption
        • Table Consumption Rates for Packaged Fresh Salad and Fresh Produce, 2011-2021 (percent of households)
      • Packaged Salad Eaters Don't Consume That Often
        • Table Packages of Packaged Fresh Salad Eaten in Last 30 Days, 20011-2021 (percent of U.S. households that eat packaged fresh salad)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Indoor Farming
      • More Sustainable Packaging
      • Enhanced Nutrition
      • Bringing Restaurant Quality Home
  • Frozen Dinners/Entrees
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Declining to $13.4 Billion in 2026
        • Table U. S. Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2016-2026 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table U. S. Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Segment, 2016–2026 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Frozen Pizza
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market to Approach $8 Billion in 2026
        • Table U.S. Frozen Pizza Retail Sales, 2016-2026 (million dollars, millions pounds, and percent)
    • Consumer Insights
      • About Half of U.S. Households Eat Frozen Pizza
        • Table Consumption Rates for Frozen Pizza, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households)
      • Frozen Pizzas Eaters Don't Eat Them That Often
        • Table Packages of Frozen Pizza Eaten in Last 30 Days, 20011-2021 (percent of U.S. households that eat frozen pizza)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Better Better-For-You Pies
      • Continue Raising the Bar on Indulgence and Comfort
      • Heightened Experiences
  • Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market to Exceed $17 Billion in 2026
        • Table U.S. Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Sales, 2016-2026 (million dollars, units, and percent change)
      • Category and Segment Sales
        • Table U.S. Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Dollar Sales: By Category & Segment, 2016-2026 (million dollars)
    • Consumer Insights
      • Consumption Data at Odds With Sales Data
        • Table Consumption Rates for Ice Cream, Novelties, and Packaged Frozen Yogurt, 2016-2021 (percent of U.S. households)
      • Consumers Overwhelmingly Prefer Regular (Full-Fat) Ice Cream
        • Table Types of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten Most Often, 2016-2021 (percent of U.S. households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)
      • Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaters Don't Consume Much
        • Table Pints of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2016-2021 (percent of U.S. households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Heightened Experiences
      • Leverage Classics and Nostalgia
      • Better Better-For-You
      • Dairy Alternatives
      • Address ESG Issues
  • Meal & Snack Bars
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Over $8 Billion in 2026
        • Table U.S. Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales, 2016-2026 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table U.S. Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales: By Category, 2016-2026 (million dollars)
    • Consumer Insights
      • Continuing Gains by Nutrition/Energy Bars
        • Table Consumption Rates for Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2011-2021 (percent of households)
      • Heaviest-Consuming Snack Bar Group Continues Expanding
        • Table Number of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households that eat breakfast/cereal/granola bars)
      • Key Brand Differences
        • Table Consumption Rates for Selected Brands of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2011-2021 (percent of households that eat bars)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Better Better-for-You
      • Heightened Experiences
  • Meat and Poultry
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market to Reach $128 Billion in 2026
        • Table U.S. Meat and Poultry Retail Sales, 2016-2026 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Category and Segment Sales
        • Table U.S. Meat and Poultry Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category/Segment, 2016-2026 (million dollars and percent change)
    • Consumer Insights
      • Meat and Poultry Consumption Continues Increasing in 2021.
        • Table Consumption Rates for Meat & Poultry, 2011-2021 (percent of households)
      • Overwhelming Preference for Fresh Over Frozen
        • Table Consumption Rates for Fresh versus Frozen Meat & Poultry, 2011-2021 (percent of households that eats meat or poultry)
      • Pandemic Gains for Bacon and Sausage Flatten in 2021
        • Table Consumption Rates for Selected Processed Meats and Poultry 2011-2021 (percent of households)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Cultivated Meat Getting Closer to Market
      • Other Alternatives
      • Plant-based Alternatives
      • Blends
      • Even Better Value-Added Products
      • Address ESG Issues
      • Meat Snacks
  • Natural and Specialty Cheese
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Increasing to over $20 Billion in 2026
        • Table U. S. Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2016–2026 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table U. S. Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016–2026 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Salty Snacks
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market to Exceed $37 Billion in 2026
        • Table U.S. Salty Snacks Retail Sales, 2016-2026 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Segment Sales
        • Table U.S. Salty Snack Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2026 (million dollars and percent change)
    • Consumer Insights
      • Potato Chips Still Most Preferred, but Other Snacks Gain
        • Table Consumption Rates for Selected Salty Snacks, 2011-2021 (percent of households)
      • Chip Eaters Don't Consume Much
        • Table Bags of Potato Chips Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households that eat potato chips)
        • Table Bags of Corn/Tortilla/Other Chips & Cheese Snacks Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households that eat corn/tortilla/other chips & cheese snacks)
    • Key Opportunities
      • Heightened Experiences
      • Better Better-For-You
      • Special Editions
      • Address ESG Issues
  • Soup
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market Increasing to Nearly $9 Billion in 2026
        • Table U. S. Soup Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2016–2026 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds/16oz. equivalents, and percent change)
    • Key Opportunities
  • Yogurt
    • Sales Outlook
      • Market to Approach $10 Billion in 2026
        • Table U.S. Yogurt Retail Sales, 2016-2026 (million dollars, million pints, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table U.S. Yogurt Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2026 (million dollars)
    • Consumer Insights
      • Yogurt Continues to Get Consumption Boost from Pandemic
        • Table Consumption Rates for Yogurt 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households)
      • Regular (Full-Fat) Yogurt Most Preferred
        • Table Types of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households that eat yogurt)
      • Yogurt with Fruit Declining But Still Most Popular
        • Table Kinds of Yogurt & Smoothies Eaten/Drank Most Often, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households that eat yogurt)
      • Greatest Growth from Those Eating the Least
        • Table Containers of Yogurt Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2011-2021 (percent of U.S. households that eat yogurt)
      • Fruit and Dessert-Like Ingredients/Flavors Most Likely to Increase Consumption
    • Key Opportunities
      • Enhanced Benefits
      • Address ESG Issues
      • Dairy-Free and Plant-Based Alternatives
      • Increase Kids' Consumption
      • Heightened Experiences

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook
Cookie Settings