Buy Now, Pay Later: Point of Sale Installment Loans in the US Market and International Perspectives, 4th Edition
This Buy Now, Pay Later: Point of Sale Installment Loans in the US Market and International Perspectives, 4th Edition research report offers an in-depth analysis of the opportunities and challenges faced by both existing and new players in the BNPL sector. It explores the macro and micro factors influencing transaction volumes, repayment rates, and the impact of stringent government regulations that could potentially force pure play fintech companies out of this already low-margin industry.
Furthermore, the report examines current borrowing behaviors of US consumers and the strategic positioning efforts of fintechs and traditional consumer credit entities, including banks, finance companies, credit unions, credit card issuers, and credit/debit card networks.
The report also evaluates the main business models within the industry, assessing the potential sustainability of each model as new competitors enter the market with their unique marketing strategies, merchant partnerships, and revenue models.
Additionally, the report provides data on the growth rate of the US BNPL market from 2017 to 2022, along with total and annual forecasts through 2028.
- Executive Summary
- Scope & Methodology
- Scope of Report
- Report Methodology
- Executive Summary
- Status of Consumer Payments Market
- Table Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding, 2020-2024 (in $ billions and % change)
- Status of BNPL in the Payments Landscape
- Robust 20% CAGR Projected for BNPL 2023- 2028
- Table US BNPL Market: Estimated CAGR, 2017-2022 vs. 2023-2028 (percent)
- Table US BNPL Market, 2023-2028 ($ billions and percent growth)
- Status of Consumer Payments Market
- Trends and Opportunities
- Banks
- Merchants
- Fintechs
- Robust and Frictionless Digital Strategy Is Essential
- Diverse Strategies Based on Credit Segmentation
- Scope & Methodology
- Market Size and Growth
- Context for Market Performance
- Table Annual Growth of Revolving and Non-revolving Credit, 2019-2024 ($ billion)
- Retail Sales
- Household Economics Are Driving Payments Industry
- Table Share of Payment Instrument Use by Household Income, October 2023 (percent)
- More Consumers Use Card Payments Than Have a Bank Account
- Consumers Feeling Financially Stressed Ignore at Least One Element of Finances
- Optimizing Payment Choices
- Strategic Considerations for Market Participants
- Banks
- Merchants
- Fintechs
- Robust and Frictionless Digital Strategy Is Essential
- Consumers Research and Shop Via Mobile, Even if They Buy In-Store
- Table Mobile is the Lead Channel for E-commerce in the US, 2021 - 2023, Q2 2024 (percent)
- Emphasis on Responsible Lending
- Diverse Strategies Based on Credit Segmentation
- Consumers Research and Shop Via Mobile, Even if They Buy In-Store
- Accelerating BNPL Growth
- The Morphing of Installment Loans
- Context for Market Performance
- US Industry Context
- The Consumer Credit Market Before BNPL Installment Finance
- Finance Companies and Credit Card/Store Card Lines of Credit
- The Opportunity That Created BNPL Finance
- BNPL Loans Turned Small Dollar Consumer Finance on Its Head
- Consumers' Receptive to New Ways to Buying and Paying for Purchases
- The Backstory of BNPL
- E-Commerce Growth Fueled Merchant Need for Differentiation and Competitive Advantages
- BNPL Financing Upstreamed in E-Commerce to Larger Market
- The Consumer Credit Market Before BNPL Installment Finance
- BNPL Financing in the US
- Industry Outlook
- Moving Forward: Robust 20% CAGR Projected for 2023-2028
- Table US BNPL Market, CAGR 2017-2022 and Projections 2023-2028
- Table US BNPL Market, Projections 2023-2028 ($ billions and % change)
- Rationale for BNPL Projection to 2028
- Table E-commerce as a Percentage of Retail Sales, 2019-2024 ($ millions and percent)
- Moving Forward: Robust 20% CAGR Projected for 2023-2028
- Key Growth Drivers
- New Market Niches, New Player Strategies All Contribute to Growth
- Fintechs Leverage Consumer Payments to Build Customer Relationships
- New Strategies from Traditional Financial Institutions
- BNPL Shopper Rewards
- Key Competitive Challenges
- Challenges Dictated by Player's Role in Payment Transaction
- Payment Friction
- Paying Users to Make BNPL More Valuable
- Regulatory Oversight: BNPL Business Models Invite Scrutiny
- Competition Pressures Prices
- Uses of BNPL Installment Moved from Smaller Ticket to Larger Ticket Items
- Consumers Appreciate BNPL as Separate Line of Credit from Their Credit Cards
- Industry Outlook
- The US BNPL Customer
- Convenience Drives Use of BNPL
- Consumers Value Ability to Spread Out Payments
- Table Top Reasons for Using BNPL Loans, 2023 (percent)
- Table Family Income, Education and Race/Ethnicity of BNPL Users, 2024 (percent)
- BNPL Awareness Tracks Increase in Usage
- Overall Usage and Key Cohorts
- Table How Gen Z and Millennial Shoppers Use BNPL, 2023 (percent)
- What Buy Now, Pay Later Products Are Consumers Buying?
- Average Size of BNPL Balances by Generation
- BNPL Purchase Categories
- Table BNPL Purchasing Categories, 2023-2024 (percent)
- Consumers Value Ability to Spread Out Payments
- Convenience Drives Use of BNPL
- The US BNPL Financing Merchant
- Significant Benefits to Merchants
- Consumers Demanding BNPL
- Merchant Set-ups to Offer BNPL
- Shop Pay Installments Lift Order Values Up to 50%
- Airlines
- Fintechs
- Significant Benefits to Merchants
- US Dynamics: Traditional Players
- US Banks and Card Issuers Join BNPL Finance Market
- US Banks
- Bank: Citizens Financial
- Bank: Wells Fargo
- Card Issuer: Citibank
- Card Issuer: JPMorgan Chase
- Finance Company: Synchrony Financial
- Card Networks Enter BNPL Finance Market
- Industry Context
- Visa
- American Express
- Mastercard
- US Banks and Card Issuers Join BNPL Finance Market
- US Dynamics: Fintechs
- Fintechs Drive Innovation in US BNPL Finance
- Fintechs Targeting Consumers With/Without Credit
- Table Fintech Volumes, Lead Products, and Repayment Methods, Calendar Year 2022 and 2023 (volumes in $ billions)
- Fintechs Targeting Consumers With/Without Credit
- Klarna
- Largest BNPL Provider with Highly Fluctuating Market Cap
- Klarna's US Gross Profit Jumped 93% YoY Through H1 2024
- Klarna in the US
- Generative AI Saving Money and Driving Customer Engagement
- Klarna's Number of Active Customers is Stagnant
- Partnerships
- Rewards
- Klarna Offers Consumers Three BNPL Financing Products
- Klarna Reports that its Product Boosts Average Order Value by 68%
- In-App Browser Lets Shoppers Use Klarna Anywhere on the Internet
- PayPal BNPL
- PayPal Helps Merchants Grow
- Transaction Volumes and Change at the Top
- Affirm
- Affirm Offers Three BNPL Loans
- Plastic and Virtual Cards
- Merchants Using Affirm
- Affirm and Amazon
- Affirm and Walmart
- Walmart Launches Its Own BNPL, Competing Against Affirm
- Table Affirm's Key Metrics, YoY, Fiscal Year 2022-2024 ($ billions and million consumers)
- Affirm Began as a Payment Option for Subprime Consumers
- Affirm Does Not Accept Credit Cards for Debt Repayment
- Affirm, Shopify and Shop Pay
- Affirm Forecasts Positive Net Income in FY 2025
- Apple Pay
- Apple Pay Later was Apple's Test for BNPL
- Apple Pay Later Served as Proof of Concept
- Apple Pay's BNPL is Global
- Apple Regulatory Scrutiny in the US
- EU Finds Apple Guilty of Blocking Competitors from Accessing its Users
- Apple Forced to Open its NFC to Competitors in the EU
- Apple Pay BNPL Offered With Klarna and Affirm
- Afterpay
- Afterpay Offers a Single, No-Interest Product
- Its "Mall" of Afterpay Stores Is Available Online or Through Its App
- Afterpay Finds That 20% of BNPL Users Say It Is Their Preferred Method of Payment
- Afterpay Survey Finds BNPL is Payment Method of Choice for Unexpected Expenses
- Afterpay Staying a Step Ahead of Australian Regulators
- Late and Missed Payment Fees
- Merchants Willing to Pay a Premium for BNPL Because it Generates Outsized Profits
- Impressive Growth Metrics
- Table Afterpay Global Growth 2020-2023 (US $ billion)
- Acquisition by Square for $29 Billion
- Amazon
- Amazon's BNPL Options
- Sezzle
- Sezzle Building Key Bank Partnership in 2024
- Sezzle's 2023 Growth
- Sezzle Product Introductions
- Zip
- Founded in Australia, Zip Entered the US Through Acquisition
- Table Key Metrics for Zip Co. 2020-2024
- Zip's Revenue Model
- Stripe and Zip
- Founded in Australia, Zip Entered the US Through Acquisition
- Fintechs Drive Innovation in US BNPL Finance
- International Market Dynamics
- Global Snapshot
- Overview
- European Union
- Latin America
- China
- Western Europe
- Consumer Credit and Payment Preferences
- BNPL Is Growing Twice as Fast as Credit Cards
- BNPL Growth Is Fueled by Consumers' Desire for Payment Choices
- Having Payment Options Informs UK Consumers' Choice of Merchants
- Europeans Use Wide Range of E-Commerce Payment Options
- Finally, Germany Moving to Credit Cards and BNPL Finance
- Benefits from E-Commerce and Highly Developed BNPL Tech
- Brazil
- Largest Latin American Marketplace
- Robust Installment Loan Ecosystem
- More Internet and More Smartphones
- Previously, Consumers Left Stack of Postdated Checks as Installments
- Brazilian Retailers Advertised Installment Price, Not Full Retail Price
- Installments Used in 80% of Brazilian E-Commerce Purchases
- In Other Markets, Fintechs Collect Shopper Payments
- Biggest E-commerce Categories Are Electronics and Travel
- Daunting Import Tariffs Act to Depress E-Commerce Volumes
- Mexico
- Mexico's E-Commerce Reaches $38.1 Billion in 2024
- Debit Cards Are Not Authorized for Digital Commerce
- Country's Largest C-Store Lets Consumers Buy Online and Pay Cash In-Store
- Installment Finance Was Originally Used by Large Ticket Merchants
- Banks Copied Success with Installment Payments for Credit Cards
- China
- Chinese Millennials Are Online, Shopping, and Not Using Network Branded Credit Cards
- Tighter Regulations Temper Chinese BNPL
- Tencent's BNPL is Fen Fu
- Alibaba
- Global Snapshot
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